A9 4beting all in preflop...

Hi all,

I would choose either to make it 2300 and call an all-in (need sick dynamics or feel that he's gonna 5bet ship all his Axs to get this in for 100bb) or just call the reraise. Shoving directly is not good.

Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi all,

I would choose either to make it 2300 and call an all-in (need sick dynamics or feel that he's gonna 5bet ship all his Axs to get this in for 100bb) or just call the reraise. Shoving directly is not good.

4bet call ? RLYY SICK dynamic we need I would just call and play it on, don't feel the 4bet here, if he calls we've got a 'mindfuck' on a lot of boards.

Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi all,

I would choose either to make it 2300 and call an all-in (need sick dynamics or feel that he's gonna 5bet ship all his Axs to get this in for 100bb) or just call the reraise. Shoving directly is not good.

I'm gonna have to disagree here. I think without a 4betting dynamic in place, shoving is going to be best here. If we call I don't feel A9o plays well enough postflop to justify calling with these stack sizes, and 4bet shoving a lot of Ax hands and any pair is going to show an immediate profit vs a 20% 3bettor.

Player 1: 53,767% 49,664% 8,207% 42,129% 55+, A3s+, K8s+, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QJo
Player 2: 46,233% 42,129% 8,207% 49,664% A9o

Is it really good shove if we have worse equity versus his range

Do you really think that he call this jam w/ 55+, A3s+, K8s+, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QJo .
I think on 100bbs he would fold everything except his top range. JJ+, AQo. I think that he easily fold KQs.

So if he 3bet this range what You said : 55+, A3s+, K8s+, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QJo

and calling jam with top range ( I think he wouldn't call with worst hands).

So 55+, A3s+, K8s+, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QJo makes 264 combinations of hands
and JJ+ , AQo+ makes 56 combinations.

56/264 = 21,2% and this percentage of time he will call our push.

78,8% he folds and we earn 13bb . 13 bb x 78.8% = 10,24 bb we earn if he fold.

But 21,2% of time he would call and the pot will be 197bbs.

A9o vs range Aqo+, JJ+ have 25.4% equity /

25.4 % x 197 bbs = 50bbs

at the strart of the hand we had 98,5.

So 50- 98,5 = -48,5 bb ( so many we will loose if call) .

10,24bb -48,5bb = - 38,26 bb

So this play is Ev- in longterm ( of course If I correctly do math )

In your math you forgot to include that he calls 21,xx % of times like you said. I didn't tell he will call us with everything I just simply typed 20 % to equilator and he made me a range :P.

Oh I forget

50bb- 98.5bb = -48.5bb

-48.5 x 21.2% = -10.28

-10.28bb + 10.24 = -.004bb

So this is breakeven push

It was so strange if we will loose - 38bb at this push

sorry again ♦

it depends on what sort of range he's 3betting. if he's got lots of suited stuff, which is my standard in his shoes against better players with this stacksize, then we can definitely 4bet/call it because he's going to have such a perceived juicy shove so often.

if he's 3betting a more valuey range like AJ, KQ and 5betshipping hands like AJ (fwiw i don't feel aj ever folds to a 4bet AI), then we shouldn't 4betshove or 4bet/call, rather just call or even fold pre

anyway calling is the lower variance, more-often-correct play. Bono1987's maths is off cause of assumptions, and i think the math itself is wrong.. by my math we lose just under 1 bb with the shove however we're on the button, we don't get the button each hand, and i'd regard a9o facing a 3bet as a hand where i make more than a couple bbs when in position.

we can get some cash hu players to eval this btw. it's 100bb deep so..

BTW: my calculations for the spot, 4betshoving or not 4bet shoving. 3bet 20%, calling it off with 6% (AJ+, 88+). I'm ignoring blockers btw, but they're quite hard to incorporate because maybe we block some of his 3bet bluff range too. We have 27.913% equity against that range

EV(fold) = 0.14/0.2 * 13 = +9.1bb
EV(call,win) = 0.06/0.2 * (98.5+3) * 0.27913 = +8.5bb
EV(call,lose) = 0.06/0.2 * -95.5 * 0.72087 = -20.7bb

Total = loss of 3.1bb