Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #29 08.04.12

Untill the river its all easy. On the river its either bluff or straight. But the player is unknown, I guess its bettter to take safe line and not risk half stack. We have to win 30 % of the time, which is questionable, and often it might be a coinflip anyway (bluff vs straigt), plus more rake.

With these stats i think opponent would play like this any A and any missed flushdraws.Not a good river card though he could have a J there and beat us.Range would be any Jxs maybe 8J,9J,10J,AJ,10Q,JK is little unlikely because of hero kings.I think these cards who may give him even a backdoor straight or a gutshot would call on the flop and with this turn would call again.
I think calling on the river is the best option.If we raise we will only be called or reraised by a J which beats us and i think all the worst hands would fold.

IMO ...

he coud have somthing like AK KQ stuf hands . even QQ JJ and 88 mybe he slowplay AA
he coud have Top pair whit draw or lot of other draws, Most time i put him on AJ whit fflush draw. but then i think he woud raise flop and turn..

MP3 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% KdKh
SB 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% AA, QQ, TT, 88, AJs+, KTs+, AJo+, KQo

I'd bet bigger on flop/turn and call river.

Villain is playing 50% of his hands- that is a huge amount and on flop/turn he is calling with tons of hands. I think it would even be a mistake to try and put him logically on a range here as he has so many hands that he would never put him on --> my opinion we need 30% equity, I think he has many more bluffs than this in his range, it's up to him to decide with which hands he decides to bet out, my opinion it's that there are more than 30% of his total range on the river.

I bet bigger flop and turn too.

I think he have several Jx in their bet river range. This guy never fold gutshot, fd with J, or maybe J9(xD).

we beat missed fd, but we dont know if it is capable of do this with Ax, QT. and I think these combos are going to be more than 33% of its range.
So I would call here

Hello,

We definitely have to Bet the flop & turn bigger, it's an easy Bet for value and he most likely is willing to pay anyways. If he has any kind of hand he is willing to pay anyways.

But otherwise on the river it's kind of cruel spot that he even pots like that but as long his range is so wide and he could even overplay 2pairs/has also maybe even like 88/TT in his range and obviously missed FDs I would Call it down.

Best Regards.