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NL100 ATs

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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($100)
BB ($40.73)
Hero ($109)
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero A♣ T♣

Hero raises to $3, BTN raises to $9, fold, fold, Hero calls $6

FLOP ($19.50) 8♠ 7♣ 5♠

Hero checks, BTN bets $10, , Hero?

Villain: 23/18/4/30 (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS) - 8k hands
9.5% 3bet, 11% btn
77% cbet flop 3bet pot, 65% turn (regular and 3b pots that is)

My reads on this player is that he barrels a lot, especially on "good" turncards. I also believe he is 3betting me a bit more than his stats suggests overall, and that's also why I called pre here.

So what is a good plan here? Ch/call flop and c/jam any club, 9, J,Q,K? And then go into c/c mode on a Tx or Ax turn since he is likely to be barrel both turn and river as a bluff?


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12 replies

I think leading is quite interesting- if he has there just overcards he should fold to 12$ donk. If I would c/c flop I would c/rai on 9,T, clubs and Ax hands


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

I don't see why we would want to donk here when he cbets a lot. As my reads (and stats) says he cbets a lot and then also barrels the turn and river a lot of the times with a weak range so I think we are much better off just calling with the intention of playing back on a lot of turns and rivers.


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yep, leading is stupid. you're totally unbalanced.
I dont generally like calling 3bets oop unless i know that the guy really 3bets me a ton.


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DailyDollarPro
Joined: 11.07.2011

I don't think ATs is strong enough to call a 3bet oop. At best it will have 50% equity against his Btn 3bet range, and we are oop with no initiative.

Example, vs bluff heavy 11% range: (QQ+, 66-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AKo)

ATs = 52% equity

vs more value oriented 11% range: (TT+, 66-22, A7s+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo)

ATs = 44% equity

So for me it's either a fold or a 4bet/fold


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I think 4bet or folding pre is best.

We can check raise flop here sometimes considering most turn cards are going to give us some decent equity


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

I gues I should've been more clear. I had pretty solid reads on this guy, that he 3bets me a lot (I think polarised as well, at least IP) and also that he really barrels a lot postflop. I have seen him barreling all streets w/ air a lot of times when good scarecards have hit on turn, both in single raised pots, and 3 bet pots.

So given those reads, is the preflopcall ok? And as for postflop, is it better to delay the action to the turn or river since he is likely to barrel?


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

He also jams fairly loose over 4bets, so I don't think I want to 4bet/call off ATs here..


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

I'd just c/f flop, its a really bad board and people dont fold overpairs. Calling and donking really scary turns > donking the flop imo.


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

But this particular player cbets a lot, and also likes to follow through on later streets, so isn't calling with the intention of playing back on a lot of turn/rivers a good option then?


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

We're oop and he is going to put alot of pressure on us, we even have some potential reverse implied odds on cards that are good for us. We are just going to make life very hard for ourselves.


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Maybe it is not the best board to play back after all, even if our opponent barrels a lot, and also as a bluff mostly.

How about if the board were like 953r, would my plan then be good, with my reads?


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Yes that would be a better board than the one in the OP. Also J24 or K24 where he will not double barrel too often as he just puts us on top pair alot would be a good baord as it will often go check/check on the turn and then we can rep value line on the river by betting, especially if there is no draws on the flop that he can put us on.


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