Interesting river spot deep nl200 ZOOM

I was trying to bluff him off like 100% of his range KK probably should be a c/c or b/f here, just wondering do we need c/c range here at all.

x/c

We win $116 vs: AQ, KQ, KJ, J9, possibly AJ

We lose $116 vs: A♥X :heart:, TX, QQ, TT, 88, QT

x/r

We win $116 vs: AQ, KQ, KJ, J9, possibly AJ, A♥X :heart:, TX, 88 (maybe).

We lose $278 vs: QQ, TT, QT

So the question is, do we bluff enough combos to justify the extra $162 we lose when we are wrong? Or do you just assume that villain will always raise flop or turn with the nutted part of his range?

If villain can never be nutted and we know he is good enough to b/f non nutted hands then I guess there is no need for a x/c range when this deep. Of course we will get hero called occasionally and there is the possibility that villain maybe fishier than we thought. It is also possible villain may miss read the board (not realise board paired on the river) and fist pump call/jam all in with a flush!

Probably not the best for your range to turn everything into a bluff on this river. But if you think he perceives your range as only boats, this is obviously an extremely profitable line. Admittedly, this is probably the last hand i expect to see when i bet/call the river here in villain's spot.

I think we're dancing with the devil here a bit too much lol

A couple of very big problems you have is that 1) our villains range is capped - v. unlikely he has a boat ever, we, on the other hand DO have all the boats by the river. IDK what level everyone is on, but if he is thinking well, and gives you credit for knowing he can't have FH's and how this affects the hand then it becomes kind of bad for him to bet/fold flushes all the time. I mean he defo shouldn't always call a flush, but at the same time he really CAN'T be putting himself in a spot where he is value-betting with a range perceived to be capped into an un-capped range and always folding to a c/r vs a thinking opponent. Otherwise he is just giving you money.

This being said if he IS just going to bet/fold everything then you can c/j you're life away and print print print it.

The other problem is I just don't think he has enough weak hands by the river to make this play. I actually think he'll show you QT/TT/88 a little more than you think, plus everything he turns into a bluff, which we need to be enough things to show profit here, KK beats (except maybe T9 or some such hand idk) so I actually think c/c KK with no hearts might be slightly better than C/J but I agree c/c sucks with almost every hand OTR.

I think the crux of the decision is how often he is going to turn the Qx's etc into bluffs, with no history I think he checks them back a lot which Is why I think I'm leaning to a c/f

Pretty interesting spot though.

Great post dave. I didn't evaluate as was unsure but agree with your post completely.

Thanks, really nice post, Dave.