Ribbo’s sports betting thread. – Page 3

Ribbo · 2010-10-01T11:14:30Z

Want to be as cool as me when it comes to sports betting? :f_cool: Here is a great WALL OF TEXT article for those wanting to try out American Football sports betting by my good friend Seth Burn. Welcome to the 2010 edition of my football preview. My name is Seth Burn and I will be your host for the next 30 (hopefully) pages or so. I would like to apologize in advance if this goes a little long. Before I begin I would like to define some terms: Expected Wins: These are the implied wins set by the trading markets. If a team were given an over-under of eight wins such that a wager of 100 would return 220 total on the over (+120), and a wager of 140 would return 240 on the under (-140) the team would have an expected value of approximately 7.7 wins (8 - .3). A basic rule of thumb is that each basis point is worth 1/100th of a win, so a team with an line of over 6.5 -160, under 6.5 +140 would be expected to win 7 games. Please note, I do not wish to condone gambling. I include these win totals because they are the de facto median expectation for the teams. Scouting Wins: This is a formula based upon positional values. The offense gets four values: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers + tight ends, and offensive line. Quarterbacks are by far the most important offensive position, then offensive line is more important than running backs or the wide receiving corps. The defense has three values: defensive line, linebacker corps, and the secondary, with the defensive line being the most important and the secondary being the least important. And last and least are the special teams rankings. The reason special teams are valued so low is because they are so fluid and unpredictable. A team can have a top 5 special teams value one year, and a bottom 5 special teams value the next without having made many changes. Once those 8 values are given their appropriate weight I produce a team value. I then created a value for the difficulty of that team’s schedule and solved for the expected wins against that strength of schedule. DVOA Wins: These are taken directly from Football Outsiders 2010 Almanac (a book that I highly recommend if you have a strong interest in football). Their formula, Defense adjusted Value Over Average – or DVOA – is fairly complicated and is based on the success rates of each play of the game. It creates values for offense, defense, and special teams. The formula looks for anomalies like an over performance on third down that is unlikely to be repeated. When a team has been “clutch” one season or one game, Football Outsiders generally expects a regression. Football Outsiders has been very good at predicting teams who are due for a rise or a fall, although to be fair they also had the Rams winning 8.0 games last season. I highly recommend that you check out their website (www.footballoutsiders.com if you wish to learn more about their methodology.) * (Since Football Outsiders updated their win projections for ESPN the Magazine I will use the win projections from ESPN and not the Almanac). Kubiak- The head coach of the Houston Texans. KUBIAK- The player projection system created by Football Outsiders. If you are a baseball fan you should think of PECOTA as the inspiration. SackSEER: A secret sauce made up of vertical leap, short shuttle time, games played (or more specifically, lack of games missed), and SRAM (which is roughly an estimated sack rate). SackSEER gives an estimate of production of a player’s first five years in the NFL. Also, please note the lack of a 40-time in the secret sauce. Well done Football Outsiders. Speed Score- A measure of effective playing speed. The two inputs are 40-time (velocity) and weight (mass). F = MV. J Pythagorean wins- The amount of wins a team would normally win given the amount of points they scored and allowed. The formula is similar to points scored ^ 2.4 / (points allowed ^ 2.4 + points scored ^ 2.4) Let’s start with the most valuable division in football (according to Forbes), the NFC East: 2010 Projected standings: Dallas Cowboys 11-5 New York Giants 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 Washington Redskins 5-11 Dallas Cowboys Expected Wins- 10.11 Scouting Wins- 9.88 DVOA Wins- 7.5 2009 Record- 11-5 One of those projections is not like the other. Let’s go back to 2006: 2006 DVOA Wins: 7.5 2006 Record: 9-7 2006 Pythagorean Wins: 9.8 Alright, the Cowboys outplayed their projections by 1.5 wins, and it wasn’t luck that led to that record. How about 2007? 2007 DVOA Wins: 6.4 2007 Record: 13-3 2007 Pythagorean Wins: 11.0 Oops. Better luck next time? 2008 DVOA Wins: 8.1 2008 Record: 9-7 2008 Pythagorean Wins: 7.9 Aha! I’ll call that a hit. Did the DVOA projection system finally have a read on the Cowboys? 2009 DVOA Wins: 8.0 2009 Record: 11-5 2009 Pythagorean Wins: 11.3 Nope. 4 year accumulated projections: 2006-2009 DVOA Wins: 30.0 2006-2009 Record: 42-22 2006-2009 Pythagorean Wins: 40.0 That averages out to a four-year DVOA projection of… whadda ya know, it’s 7.5! If...

Ribbo

Joined: 25.06.2010

Posts: 6,151

28.08.2011, 02:43 0

Originally posted by Reanimater
Will there be a football preview for 2011? : )

This will be available for viewing in about 2 weeks time sir. woop new page finally!

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Waiboy

Joined: 18.09.2008

Posts: 4,877

31.08.2011, 09:19 0

Originally posted by Ribbo

Originally posted by Reanimater
Will there be a football preview for 2011? : )

This will be available for viewing in about 2 weeks time sir. woop new page finally!

Make sure you tart the wall up a bit this time. If not a coat of sparkly paint, at least a few posters here and there.

"...and then I was like "?", and they were like "..." and then it all came down to the cheese making method. Needless to say

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TheLastNail

Joined: 30.05.2008

Posts: 1,805

06.06.2012, 03:55 0

I am rly interested. :

1, what site do u guys suggest for online sports betting? bwin? what other?
2, i ve noticed relatively big differeces in odds between separate sites esp in live betting. Isnt there a plenty of value in this?!
3, dont u think there is a lot of value to be had in betting on live women's matches (which u can follow in tv) - women are typically rly psychologically fragile and in 1 or 2 games say in tennis can totally lose their whole composure and just flat out get a whipping from then on being a major favorite before. (ve seen tens of matches like this)
4, what BRM for 3k starting roll? bets of 30$? Is there a difference in BRM between different sports? What kind of BRM u suggest for hockey and/or tennis?

-life is not abt finding urself, it's abt creating urself-

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Waiboy

Joined: 18.09.2008

Posts: 4,877

06.06.2012, 08:57 0

Originally posted by Ribbo

Originally posted by Reanimater
Will there be a football preview for 2011? : )

This will be available for viewing in about 2 weeks time sir. woop new page finally!

Total fail on timeliness, but at least it should be unerringly accurate. I'm picking the Giants will take it, but I've been wrong before.

"...and then I was like "?", and they were like "..." and then it all came down to the cheese making method. Needless to say

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UPAY4DINNER

Joined: 28.09.2009

Posts: 22,746

06.06.2012, 09:00 0

Are we all set for the Euros lads?

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Ribbo's sports betting thread.