PLO25 third barrell

9 outs on the flop? Probably a check/fold out of position. This is the same as checkraising an outside straight draw pretty much and nobody would do that out of position with no other way of winning.

You wouldn't checkraise 8722 on an A96 flop so why are you fundamentally doing exactly the same thing here? This play on the flop is really really bad and I think you just thought your hand was a wrap hand and therefore good.

Villain was a regular and this seemed like a good board to bluff - it is very hard for him to continue on this board vs. a c/r if he didn't hit it hard. Yes, there are outs that are there as a backup, but i've turned my hand into a bluff - this is not a value raise. Do you think that this is a bad board to bluff? I mean, if I was in his position and someone c/r me, it would be hard for me to continue with a lot of hands from my button range...

It's such a dry board that once you get called you have to give up. He has AK at worse and you're not getting a fold typically.

Can opponent call a check-raise to that flop with AK? Would Ribbo call with that?

I don't think villain is capable of thinking like "this board is dry, so he might check-raise me thinly as he knows I can't hit that board hard. So I call with any ace for 3 streets". Usually they see that check-raise as a strong hand, and hero is repping a set there. So if villain has AK, he can't call with an ease. As if hero has a set, he will bet turn too. And to call check-raise and turn bet with TPTK sounds unlikely.

The idea is to c-raise as a semibluff to a dry board, where the most of villain's range don't hit the board hard. Opponent needs to fold 2/3 of his range to make the bluff work. But if opponent calls, hero has 20% chance to hit the nuts on turn. No time to do the exact math, but I think that if villain folds half of his range to that c-raise, it's +EV. And button open, c-bet to A-high dry flop = wide range.

Any reasons on Villain?

A 3 barrel bluff out of position against an unknown is not a play I like.

As I already mentioned, villain is a reg, and I think that I have enough fold equity on the flop to make a profitable c/r + have some outs that will give me some additional equity on the further streets. On the turn I have to follow through with my actions, but river is a mistake. Ribbo, what do you think about Kyyberi's explanation of flop c/r profitability?

And when opponent calls flop, I seems to me that he has some kind of Axxx hand a lot of times. Maybe a gutshot with it or something like that. He doesn't want to fold, and he thinks that hero will slowdown if he was making moves. If he had a set or A9xx, I think he would have shoved.

(I know that shoving the flop with AA/99/55/A9 isn't perhaps the best line, but most of PLO25 regs can't think that deeply)

So that's why I root for turn barrel. I think that with just call to hero's check-raise he should fold over 33% of the time as hero is repping such a strong hand.

Kyyberi's math doesn't work because it assumes that the 50% of the time villain doesn't fold to the flop raise, you will play perfectly on the turn against villain.

Which is so obviously not true as shown by turn cards like this. There is a fair amount of reverse implied odds as well concerning the turn card where you can end up barrelling in to the nuts or indeed hitting the nuts only to find villain also has the nuts plus a redraw.

You can't really take the flop out of context of the rest of the hand because that's not how poker works. Trying to justify a checkraise being profitable often means conveniently forgetting that you're still going to make mistakes on the turn and those mistakes will be bigger than your opponent due to you being out of position.

I stand by my math. The parameters were that hero continues on turn only if he hits the nuts. So that 50% comes from that line. If hero makes something else on turn, that might change it to other directions.

Actually I am little surprised that Ribbo thinks that the flop c-raise is bad. So check-raising with NFD to a dry flop is also bad?

I would really like to know what is Ribbo's calling range to that flop, when opponent check-raises? And what is your shoving range?

I don't mean to be rude, sorry if it feels that way. It's just that I see that spot as a good check-raise spot against a reg, and I really need more reasoning to think otherwise.

♥

edit: some numbers:

If he is opening top 30% from the BTN, he has 60194 hand combos. Let's say he cbets 100% to that flop. He calls the check-raise with any set, any 2 pairs, and any 9 out inside wrap. That's 51968 hands that he folds on flop = 86% of his range. If we add ALL Axxx hands, that's still 31700 folded hands, which is 53% of his range. And I strongly doubt he will call with any ace. And if he has some crap like 95xx, he can't really call a check-raise, can he?

Saying villain is a reg is not a read. There are all kinds of regs.

That's true... standard TAG according to stats then ;). No specific reads.

Interesting hand

So I made some calculations about expected value for the C/R using the fact that villain will fold about 50% of his hands and in case of calling we have 20% of hitting. To keep it simple I excluded from villain range cards 678.

EV is related to the pot on the turn so is not considerated any implied or inverse implied odds. Rake is not considered and amounts are in $.

[F] If villain folds then + 3.09
else [T] if hero hit straight then + 7.39
else -5.59

so

EV = 3.09 * 0.5 + 0.5(0.2*7.39-0.8*5.59)=0.081 $

If hero is doing check raising with intention to fold on turn on blank then is zero EV.

A few problems spring to mind:

Firstly you haven't factored in the times villain reshoves the flop and you have to fold meaning you don't even get the equity of a turn card. If villain has something like A9 I am pretty sure shoving the flop is the best play (if he has a set, he may well call to allow you to barrel off, but A9 is a lot more vulnerable).

Secondly, it's not +7.39 if you hit as that assume villain has 0% equity when you hit. He could also have something like A567 or A9 plus pick up a flush draw on the turn.

Lastly I think you're over estimating how often villain folds to a checkraise. It's such a good spot to call the checkraise forcing the out of position player to barrel the turn.