Hello
Well about that quad folds i also agree its a call
another thing is the only hand that beats him 910s
had to make a straight in the flop , wich is also very unlikely
I actually believe he had JJ or 77 , i mean hes a cautios amateur
and goes with the second best hand to see a flop with 2 players ??
I feel he would reraise KK to be HU
But i believe its a call also ♦
Thanks Dallievas and Fruktpuf. Antonioull I'm not sure he'd shove the river with 77 but you're right that it's definitely possible. And bradomurder I agree that that line of thinking would normally work pretty well 
Big River Bluff in WSOP Main Event
I busted the main event on day 3 when I shoved JJ over a raise and call; only the initial raiser called and his AQ hit two pair on the flop. There were a few interesting hands leading up to that point though, including this one from level 3 on day 1.
I was mainly playing a solid/ABC game looking to exploit the weaker players and minimize swings, so this hand was a bit out of character.
Blinds: $150-$300 (no ante)
UTG limps, I call Qs3s OTB, SB completes, BB checks. Effective stack with most players ~ $30k.
Flop: 5h 8s 9s (Pot: $1200)
SB bets $400, BB and UTG call, I raise to $2k, everyone calls.
Turn: 2h (Pot: $9200)
SB checks, BB bets $5k, UTG folds, I call, SB calls.
River: Kh (Pot: $24,200)
SB checks, BB checks, I bet $14.2k.
Analysis: I just about always fold Q3s pre in this spot, but UTG was playing about 65-vpip and willing to put in his stack with one-pair hands postflop. I felt strongly that he was going to spew his stack to someone at the table (and sure enough, he later called off a 5bet shove pre almost 100bb deep with jack-high), and I wanted to put myself in a position for that person to be me and went out of my way to get involved in pots with him.
At the flop, SB's 1/4 pot bet looked weak, and I didn't think anyone was showing much strength by flatcalling, so I raised with the goal of winning immediately, or if called having the option of checking back the turn unimproved to see a free river.
The turn is super-close. Based on a number of hours playing with the small blind, I thought he was almost never check/raising here, so I have the implied odds to call if I expect to win at least another $6k or so when I hit. I thought I’d stack the big blind often enough when I hit that it was correct to call, but this is definitely close. And if the SB was capable of check/raising there, I'd have just tossed it.
At the river, a bluff really doesn’t represent much besides maybe a hand like 9h Xh. At the same time, I didn’t have showdown value, there was a ton out there, and I didn’t think that either of the recreational players in the blinds were capable of calling off most of the rest of their stacks based on how the hand had played.
SB snap-folded and afterward claimed to have an OESFD. BB tanked and looked like he was gonna toss in the chips which kinda sucked, but fortunately he mucked.
I went back to my ABC/value game after that hand which worked out well, bringing me close to $80k by the end of the day.
Early on Day 2 I lost a major pot folding top trips at the river, which will be the topic of my next blog. And please feel free to post any feedback on my line in the above hand, I'm very open to the idea of an alternative play on any street.
Collin I have been reading your sng strategy book on my e-reader for the past few days!
My best piece of info I have received so far is this line!
``never bet more than is necessary to bluff down a pot you will never win at a showdown``
I am stuck however and can`t get past this one issue.....
not sure what page it is on as I have no clue in an e-reader to tell what page I am on except that it is Hand 2-10
scenario as follows
Your hand: you (t1,350) have KJs in the cutoff seat. Both blinds (t1,840 and t2,200) are TAG.
Action to you : everyone folds
Question: what is your move:
Answer: Raise to t250. Despite being in the 10 to 14bb moderate zone, you have a solid hand in late pos, so come in with a raise of standard 2 to 3 bb`s
I have several problems with this and I have been stuck here saying to myself `dude this is Collin Moshman...... if he says to do it then do it you dork wad!`
First you make no mention of the BU and second you are putting 20% of your stack into a pot! If you put 3x in then its 22%.
ICM tells me this is spew and I can`t move forward because I just can`t accept this thinking.
You go on to say
Action: you raise to t250. The BU folds, the tight sb (t1900) calls and the bb folds. Pot size t600 2 players in hand.
Flop: AsQh2h
Action: he checks
Question: what is your move:
Answer: Check! Normally you would c bet around t300 to t350 but you need to be concerned that a TAG smooth called your raise from the sb and if he does come over the top ( as an aggressive player is more likely to do ) you must fold. Check now but bet the next card if you make your straight or he shows weakness by checking again.
Please understand I am not questioning your advise ( actually yes I am LOL ) but I don`t see how this is +EV in this scenario! I am here to learn and bought your book for that reason.
My father taught me long ago never to just accept but challenge if you don`t beleive it to be the best answer. Open discussion and dialogue will always bear great fruits!
Thank you sir for taking the time to help one of your students with this roadblock.
Cowboy
Cowboy -- I definitely agree that 3x raise is too much, raise to 200-225 instead. Did you have other questions about the hand as well?
WSOP Day 2: Folding Top Trips to River Shove
I started off day 2 of the main event with a nicely above average stack. My table had several regs including AEJones, and a few recreational players. To my right was a middle-aged to elderly gentleman who I didn’t think of as much of a threat. And I’m sure he’d be fine with that perception seeing as he promptly took a huge chunk out of my stack...
Blinds: $250-$500-$50
Everyone folds to older gentleman in hijack who makes it $1200. He had been fairly active pre-flop but I didn’t know too much about him as this was probably the 3rd orbit at the table. I 3bet to $2800 in CO with AsKc. The button and blinds fold, Villain calls.
Flop: 6d Td Kh
He checks, I bet $4200, he raises to $10.2k, I call.
Turn: Ks
He bets $15.6k, I call.
River: Jh
He shoves for a bit over $30k.
Analysis: At the river, he waited about 7-8 seconds before shoving. I thought his value range was approximately: AK, 66, TT, KTs. I didn’t even think he’d value-shove the river with KQ even if he had gotten there with it. I tanked for a few minutes, looking at him a lot and he looked completely calm. I really felt like he wasn’t bluffing a busted draw or value-shoving worse, and finally tossed the hand.
The feedback I got from different people varied quite a bit: I played the hand right, I shouldn't have 3bet pre, I should have checked back the flop, played the same until the river then snap-called the shove, etc.
So I bring the hand to you. Thoughts on all streets very welcome.
Originally posted by CollinMoshman
Cowboy -- I definitely agree that 3x raise is too much, raise to 200-225 instead. Did you have other questions about the hand as well?
Yes sir .... is this profitable to put 20% of our stack in pre because of how we have ranged them?
Secondly if this TAG player has smooth called us and he ch/r us and we have to fold we have spewed 45% of our stack and now have virtually no fold equity!
Can we do this profitably?
Thanks
Moving to Mexico
Katie and I spent most of last week in Mexico considering whether to rent a place to live part-time. A few Americans I told this plan to seemed pretty surprised, thinking of Mexico as unsafe. Nonetheless we went there with an open mind. There’s a fairly large community of US players living fulltime there who are a lot more qualified to report on Mexican life, but FWIW here was my experience.
Getting across the Mexican border from San Diego was pretty easy. There was a traffic jam at the start of the 25 minute drive to Rosarito, and a ton of guys were walking in between cars trying to get paid to clean windshields. We got past that part and a couple of sketchier looking areas around Tijuana, and the drive to Rosarito along the ocean was great.
Rosarito itself was a really nice town. Highlights:
The people. Almost everyone spoke English and most people were very nice. As Katie pointed out, even the people who just wanted your money always offered something for it – a trinket, a guitar song, etc.
The Food. For 13 pesos (a bit under $1) you can get a delicious meat/onion/guacamole taco, and same price for a tall cold coke in a glass bottle.
Fireworks. The 12-year-old me was thrilled to see Alfonso’s Fireworks walking distance from the beach, where it’s totally legal to set off M80s, bottle rockets, and roman candles.
The beaches. Right on the ocean, great beaches, with inexpensive horseback riding and ATV rentals right on the main beach.
There’s a Walmart, good grocery stores, clothing/shoe stores, and places to shop.
In terms of safety, no problems at all walking around town during the day. A few slightly sketchy encounters at night near the beach, but nothing too bad. The place we were looking at is in a gated complex (Calafia) and Katie said she’d feel totally safe walking around there at night.
So we had a very fun trip and likely getting a place to live in part-time starting later this month. For other US players looking to live somewhere you can play on Stars and Euro sites, I’d definitely consider it.
Hey Collin
Well ... actually never been in mexico but ill certainly wouldnt like to live there
4 obvious reasons , i think the amount of risk u take (being in a crossfire of rival gangs etc) just doesnt compensate what u get back
I mean 10 days for holidays maybe , living there no way.
Isnt the legislation in the US going forward next year ?
+ I highly doubt Stars would have bought FTP if they didnt knew there where
short.medium term - 6-12 months perspectuivs the us market opens
All the best
A
Originally posted by Antonioull
Hey CollinWell ... actually never been in mexico but ill certainly wouldnt like to live there
4 obvious reasons , i think the amount of risk u take (being in a crossfire of rival gangs etc) just doesnt compensate what u get back
I mean 10 days for holidays maybe , living there no way.All the best
A
How can you say that if you haven't been to Mexico?
With the grinders I talked to who live in Mexico - they all say that it is completely safe (though, they live in cool places like Rosarito and Cabo).
Originally posted by stripofbacon
Originally posted by Antonioull
Hey CollinWell ... actually never been in mexico but ill certainly wouldnt like to live there
4 obvious reasons , i think the amount of risk u take (being in a crossfire of rival gangs etc) just doesnt compensate what u get back
I mean 10 days for holidays maybe , living there no way.All the best
A
How can you say that if you haven't been to Mexico?
With the grinders I talked to who live in Mexico - they all say that it is completely safe (though, they live in cool places like Rosarito and Cabo).
Because of the news obv.
It all comes down to personal perspectiv , if u r in a country with severe drug problems + murders etc the risk is just higher
Those cool places u talk about might be news in just some weeks or months when 7 or 8 are killed in another shootout and then
mexico will became an awfull place so things can change fast , of course
it all comes down to faith , ii have seen some docs about mexico
and because of that my faith is 0
Of course not all we see in tv is true but my opinion is based on that
Anyway i wish all who are in mexico a safe stay ♦
not every place in mexico is like mexico city, cmon things you say sounds so ignorant
This is Collin forum page please be more respectfull behave in a educated manner and respect others opinions
this is not a forum where insult is not tolerated
Sorry to invade yr page with this Collin
Originally posted by Antonioull
This is Collin forum page please be more respectfull behave in a educated manner and respect others opinions
this is not a forum where insult is not toleratedSorry to invade yr page with this Collin
He's not really insulting you but just pointing out that the things you say sound ignorant, which is true.
Yes there is violence in mexico but it's not that common that it effects tourists or tourist areas, You do hear some bad stories but bad neighborhoods in most countries aren't really places you should hang out
I spent 3 1/2 months all around Mexico and felt safe the whole time, and had a great time, it's an awesome country
I felt far less safe in Las Vegas to be honest
Originally posted by Antonioull
This is Collin forum page please be more respectfull behave in a educated manner and respect others opinions
this is not a forum where insult is not toleratedSorry to invade yr page with this Collin
lol...y u crying?
he did'nt insults u in any way.....infact he might have felt insulted for the things u said, if he is from mexico...
Alot of my boys live in mexico I always been tight with the american mtt/180 crowd
I know my english is not good , however i said my opinion is based in what i see in tv + docs in mexico , if u know how to read and have the ability to understand i am stating my opinion and not saiyn his or hers sounds ignorant
despite i might not agree
I find some comments are insulting or reveal a certain lack of education
wich obv. u must have to recognize that.
To say i dont agree is 1 thing to say sounds ignorant is another
and i would be shocked if u cant understand this by yourself
Just the simple fact u are using someone elses blog is suff to understand moderation and education is needed.
Im sure there are millions of people who live in mexico and find it safe and some (mainly ) the ones dead in trafic drugs prob would have other opinion
if we could ear them. One say its safe been there 4 3 years
the other say i lived in tijuana for 43 years my 2 sons where killed
in a shootout when going to school
comparing safe neighburs with the HUGE problem mexico has
its something i cert. not agree mexico has a huge corruption and endemic problem in wich the army is involved killing and protecting 1 drug cartel
wich has been rising over the last years to dominate the country
of course it all comes down to bribes and a cut of the deal
I have seen french , british docs wich clearly show this endemic corruption
and a country where law doesnt exist.
Of course some regions are safer even in Iraq some regions are safer
that however doesnt mean iraq is safe if u stay out of certain neighboords
It kind of sounds like you're trying to insult me now, but whatever - I'm not that kind of person who gets offended by someone on the internet
No need to hijack this blog indeed. If you want to discuss my education (or as you say - lack of it) then PM is an option.
Good luck to you and to Collin!
Sorry not to have commented earlier. Everyone is definitely entitled to their opinions, and I know particularly in the US (and possibly elsewhere) that Mexico has a reputation for being violent/unsafe. We found that not to be the case in Rosarito, and believe to be a safe and good city. Will definitely update but for now we are happy with the decision and looking forward to the move.
Thanks for the comments/thoughts.
