I haven't played poker is over 3 months and decided to start while on break. So far it is a disaster and I am currently in the middle of my most damaging downswing to date.
The reason why I post this is to get some information on EV. I have always wondered what the chance is of enduring a run of bad luck for a month or even a year. What is the chance of deviating 2%/5% from the statistical norm over a period of, say, 100,000 hands.
Logically, it seems that it would be <1%. Does anybody know?
in 1,6k hands its nothink. just play, ur on right line. Its just numbers in ur cashier. Your EV if fine, and u doing good. Ignore green line, focus more on ev
AWMAGAD man , i've seen nl 2 ppl whining about 2 BI's but this is just terrible , 7 below ev is unacceptable , you should stop playing immediately , and read like 10 mindset books , can't think about any other way to get over it
Inspiring advice guys.
The question is what is the chance of a 5% deviation from EV over say 100,000 hands.
At start 4BI`s looked much :)) I don't have a ton of experience but i played somewhere over 300K hands, worst downswing was about 13,5BI`s over 20k hands... and i`m absolutely certain that i haven't seen the ugly side of a downswing yet :).
4BI`s :)) ... just the other day i was 5BI`s under ev, i just shoved two times the nuts on flop (Made str8 vs flushdraws) ... and i lost two flip, plus some other ugly stuff.
If you want to take a sample, take at least 50k hands.
Can be much worst, so don't worry.Put in the work and you should be fine.
Hi all,
It doesn't look like OP is complaining so much as asking for math advice. 
Regards,
Mal.
Don't know the answer for your actual question,but you can google 'variance simulator' and play with it a little. It'll give you some general idea. :-)
Hello BObamaJr,
check out this video - should give you some insight. VARIANCE
for the record, i play nl10 and i regularly have -$40 days. its totally standard and something you need to accept 
i suggest you use it to help yourself improve as a player and study. if you feel tilted, study away from the table.
Lewis.
Originally posted by TiciBoy
Don't know the answer for your actual question,but you can google 'variance simulator' and play with it a little. It'll give you some general idea. :-)
Thanks - this is a great tool.
