Win A Seat in My Seminar!

Ok so far we have very little information about villain, but from all we've got he seems to be a Maniac. If the pot was HU, I'd say his stabbing-range is almost 100% from what he called Preflop, since we're multiway, his range is probably a little narrower, still including everything that connected to the board somehow (and probably some blank overs as well).
From the aggressive stats we have gathered so far, we can predict that he is probably pretty bluffy and that he's willing to turn SDV into a bluff. Thus I wouldnt discount sth. like bottompair from his barreling-range either.

Cause all we know is that he's frequently betting the Turn and River (without having seen a Showdown so far), I'm generally not planning on folding future streets IF I call the flop. Given, that you already have called Flop and Turn (the T completes a straight-draw and makes some of his gutshot-hands a toppair, but additionally adds some backdoor draws he might continue), I'm inclined to call a 100% rivers here.

If we decide to get into this spot, we should go with the information we have gathered so far, that is: he is overaggressive. Since his Preflop, Flop and Turn-ranges are so wide, and he has bet 100% Rivers so far, there are still enough draws in his range that have missed, even if one of the others came in.

One concern with a hand like 78s against this player is that when we flat preflop, we are setting ourselves up to make very difficult positions with mediocre hands. We end up having to make tough calldowns against a range that still probably has a lot of equity against us. My overall strategy against this player would be to flat premiums and high cards preflop with the intention of calling down with made hands, and often turning nonmade hands into bluffs on the turn or river.

OTF, the PFR is unlikely to be cbetting light AND is very likely to cbet all value hands (depending on skill level < the good point was brought up that if Player6 is skilled, he could c/r his value range here against Player1's high stabbing frequency). This means he is unlikely to have a c/c range and therefore flatting against Player1's wide range when he bets seems best as we will likely end up HU by the turn.

One thing to note is that a player who is barreling off light is very likely doing so on this board. Our perceived range for our line is capped. If he is a handreader and is likely to know this (and we don't have history), then we should be MORE inclined to call big bets on later streets. If he knows we are likely to have a draw or medium strength hand, I read a large bet size as intended to maximize fold equity. A small bet becomes very scary here. So as played I continue with the plan of calling down, given that he is just soooo wide, even by the river. However, IF he is a thinking player AND bets smaller when an overcard hits, I'm probably folding. If he is a complete whale, then we are probably just calling down regardless given our reads.

*addition: To expand on my thoughts about preflop hand selection, I'd say that against a player who is more or less always committing his stack, 78s has no better implied odds than QTo. QTo is going to have better equity and encounter fewer tough situations against a player like this.

*edit: Given that so many other people are deep and cover Player1 (and will cover him even if he stacks us), I'm definitely inclined to try and avoid the closer spots. We currently cover him nicely, but if we take a tight spot and get stacked, suddenly we are 100 BB deep with him while other players are like 300+ bb deep with him. It means we're less likely to win our money back.

Okay I haven't read any of the other comments yet but here it goes:

preflop: Flatting is definitely the best option--we want to play lots of pots in position vs. this 58/40 whale, and 78s is a good enough hand to play with when we are this deep. We can obviously get paid off when we make a nice hand, and we can potentially put in a bluff-raise somewhere since this fish is being aggressive with such a wide range. I doubt we have much fold equity preflop if we were to 3bet, and we certainly don't want to inflate the pot preflop with 8-high, reducing our stack to pot ratio, especially against this crazy of a player who may 4bet/get it in light and is not super likely to just check/fold the flop.

flop: Calling again seems like the best option. OP did not provide any reads on Player6, and while I would generally expect them to c-bet with overpairs+ for value, they could be the kind of player to check to the maniac/fish with a strong hand to let him barrel off his stack. Therefore, while this isn't a huge consideration, Player6's range is not necessarily capped. Folding with top pair against an aggro maniac is obviously way too weak, and raising I think over-represents our hand and will likely isolate ourselves against a range of sets, 2pair, overpairs, and strong draws, against which we certainly don't want to get it in. I'd rather flat, hope that Player6 folds, and let the maniac barrel off his stack with bluffs. If Player6 does fold, my plan is to continue to call down on most run-outs if Player1 continues to barrel.

turn: While there is some merit to raising all-in here for protection/to get value from draws (the board is obviously very wet), based on reads we can expect villain to shove almost any river even when he misses his draw, so it seems better to just call again. Additionally villain could simply have two overcards (i.e. AQo) that he would fold if we were to shove the turn, but would probably shove the river with even when he doesn't improve. So again I prefer calling with the intention of calling any river.

river: I cannot think of a river that I would not call a shove on. We have seen that villain is very aggressive and spewy, and again he can shove the river with a ton of missed draws and overcards, and he probably would not shove the river with a better 7 or 88-99, because he would not be getting value. (Instead he would most likely check/call with those hands). So given that we will only have to win about 30% of the time for a river call to be profitable, I would call any river shove. If villain checks, I would check back expecting to lose most of the time, but we do have some showdown value and we can't turn our hand into a bluff because on most rivers there will be a lot of draws that miss, so villain is likely to check/call with medium-strength hands that beat hero's.

I hope I win!

fold turn and wait for better spot ♦ if he's that bad/ crazy you're going to get his money eventually. keep it simple

take chips not risks

Seriously!
You have 5 seconds to act on the river before you time out, who has the time to sit and plow through stats, pokerstove and so on?

Go with your gut and shove or fold depending on what he does and what comes on the river.

Be a real poker player and not a boring stats geek!

pretty easy fold flop if you don't wanna call down against a potentially spewy maniac. if you call the turn u can't really fold any river since he will barrel most of his bluffs on scarecards like Ace, King, Queen, Spade, Clubs, since our range is perceived faceup as a onepair hand and will have a pretty hard time to call any river that doesn't make us a 2pair+. since you really don't have a big sample on villain fold flop is the prolly the best line to play.

Hello. My English is no good and i can do mistakes easy.
At flop i think need raising his bet, about 2.5 times. Firstly we get initiative, and make some fold-equity, if he push we will fold (we dont have information about that he can go all-in with 2nd or 3rd pair). Secondly we often get river for free, if card at turn will not be good for us, we check behind. and at river pot size will be about 1200 instead of 1890. Of course, if we cheсk, this show him weakness, and that does not save us from the push on the river, but now, with this line of play, he will think about the push. But at least if we are to fold on the river, we will lose something around 550 euros instead of 900. (with agressive fish i prefer call push if draw missed having minimum top-pair)
at river with presented line - if we call at turn with gutshot and pair, we often need call his push where will not other draws fused (flash-draw) . But what the reason call turn if we often go all-in at river, i think we often be ahead at turn vs his spectre, and have outs (about 10-12), i know that is no good to go all-in, having just 25% at the best case vs tp or 7 with better kicker(opportinity of this hand is lower), but we need sometimes fight back. So i think need push turn. we get call from hands that worse our(for flash-draw, having 5, gutshots ,sometimes overcards).

i dont use equilator when thinking about thit hand, i try to imagine that i am at the table and dont have time to use that tool

Preflop seems good to me, so not going to talk about it.

On flop, I think there are various options. Player6 assumingly is a regular[?], who most probably will have noticed the fishs tendencies, so he's still capable of check raising sets and monster draws knowing hero will often put "dead" money into the pot. Outside of that I don't think we get raised here too often. Even a hand like aces is probably not going to want to get in on this board. So I kinda agree with calling the flop. Talk more about that later.

Player 1s preflop range most likely looks something like
88-22, AJs-A2s, K7s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, ATo-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o.
Rest I think it's ok to assume he folds pre. Against this range (considering the fact that he's potting about all his range) we have 68% equity. If villain has shown he's incredibly incapable of folding his air to raises (history dependant) I wouldn't mind raising the flop small and folding to Player6 shove and snapping of Player1. Although that might shut villain down and given how aggressive he's been we would waste a lot of future value against bluffs. Therefore, call. If there's proof that HJ check folds an incredibly high percentage (90%+) and fish has gotten it in with extremely weak holdings on flops raise calling becomes a very viable option. Given the info in OP I believe calling is best.

Turn is not the greatest card given his range, but we are still well ahead of it. Even if he only continues with all his pairs, flush draws and the better straight draws we are ahead of their range. Now, though, raise-calling it off/ shoving turn makes a lot less sense, since he shouldnt be calling it off with just a gut shot. If we give him a calling range of all pairs, flush draws, two pair+ we are actually flipping. Shoving turn therefore doesn't make too much sense. It takes away the opportunity of him bluffing rivers and we would lose a lot of EV there. Him getting there with a gut shot or overs isn't that as big of a problem if he's going to shove a lot of air on the river too. Most of the time he's not going to get there.
[88-22,AcJc,AsJs,ATs,Ac9c,As9s,Ac8c,As8s,A7s-A4s,Ac3c,As3s,Ac2c,As2s,KQs,KcJc,KsJs,KTs,Kc9c,Ks9s,Kc8c,Ks8s,K7s,QcJc,QsJs,QTs,Qc9c,Qs9s,Qc8c,Qs8s,Q7s,JTs,Jc9c,Js9s,Jc8c,Js8s,J7s,T6s+,96s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,53s+,43s,ATo,A7o-A4o,KTo,QTo,JTo,T8o+,97o+,86o+,75o+,65o]

On the river pot size will be 1890 and we are playing 1670 effective. This makes folding really tough on even on the worst of river cards. If we expect him to shove close to a 100% of his turn barreling range we are still beating his range enough so that calling is more profitable than folding. This is where I would try to take as many reads from timing or anything you can find and possibly make hero folds on something like the Jack of spades or three of clubs. 9x, 5x 7x etc are obviously no decision.

Ultimately it just comes down to how strong the "potting all session long" read is. Given the description I think all rivers are calls. Some crying and some fist pump. Also things like has he just doubled up, is he still up from the session etc will affect his bluffing ranges so that we can make more correct decisions on rivers based on those.

From the description of the villain it seems that he is likely to barrel his whole range most of the time when PFR checks to him on any cards. So with my TP+gs I assume I have about 66-70% equity vs his range making it easy and very profitable calldown (given the fact that he bets almost his entire range through 3 streets). Since I don't have any reads about his stack off tendencies on the flop I really want to keep his bluffs in so I decide to call any turn and river. I think folding given our reads is a mistake (calling and folding later is even a bigger one) and raising is a play which EV is unknown. I would consider folding turn if A ♣ hits since it hits all his Ax and any2 clubs that he calls preflop.

Also given that the fish is IP vs PFR I wouldn't flat with SC because our draws can be dominated and we often are faced with a lot of heat postflop.

Hi Dusty

I'm also taking a try to get to your training in Berlin

PF: Flatting preflop raise seems to be ok for the multiway pot here. Squeezing might be an option as well, so far we have a tight image, but I would just flat in most cases for pretty good implied odds. I would also expect that 58/40 have a wide range of calling 3bet/squeeze, so fold equity is questionable here.

F: I would expect that his bluff range is quite decent on the flop and would include flush, straight draws there, taking into account his aggressive tendency we noted previously. Together with some ready hands against us we may have pretty good equity here for flatting (~33% pot odds) with almost even pot equity (see below).
However, if we expect him to barrel the turn as well, we may consider folding the flop, as we don't have enough outs for improvement on turn (only two sevens and three fives indeed), as all the eights improve his range as well. Look for implied odds calculation in turn section to see, that if we have to play it further we would loose money in the long run by calling two barrels.
So, flatting is not an option, if we expect that he can continue barreling and it does not help us to discover where are we against him.

Board: 6♠4♣7♣
Equity Win Tie
UTG 49.00% 45.22% 3.78% { 8h7h }
UTG+1 51.00% 47.22% 3.78% { 77-44, T8s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c }

Next, raising. How much fold equity do we have here?
We don't know yet about his folding tendencies, so let's assume he would fold all the OESDs and FDs, and keep all sets and combo draws.

From the 49 hands he has on flop, he would fold 34 and keep 15 to my assumption (77-66,44,Kc8c,Qc8c,Jc8c,Tc8c,9c8c,8c6c,Ac5c,6c5c).
So, he is likely to fold 69% when facing a raise. As our pot equity is almost even, raising is definitely give us an advantages - we can win the pot in 69%, we are likely to see turn and river cards for free, if he goes further with combo draws. In case he shoves his 15 hands we just fold.

Board: 6♠4♣7♣
Equity Win Tie
UTG 31.98% 29.79% 2.19% { 8h7h }
UTG+1 68.02% 65.84% 2.19% { 77-66, 44, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 8c6c, Ac5c, 6c5c }

T: Turn card, of course closes some the straight draws but does not affect our equity a lot against his range if we flatted the flop, while we start drawing to double gutshot.
Let's see our implied odds. We have pot odds for call 2:1 and 5:1 odds for 8 outs (fives, nines, excluding the clubs, sevens). I exclude clubs as we think that he can draw to clubs flush. So, the implied will be (5-2) * 630 = 1890. This is not the case, as the villain has about 1700 left in his stack.
Without improving our hand we will be not happy playing for stack, so I would fold here.

R: The showstopper for me will be any clubs, threes on river. If we hit a trips of sevens, I would call his shove. If we hit an eight for two pairs, we will have to fold, as we will be behind his range.

Overall: I would put a decent raise on flop instead of calling the flop. In case he calls the flop and bets turn, I would fold, in case he calls flop and checks turn, I would check behind, in case he shoves flop I fold.

As played, there is a fold on turn, due to implied odds are not covered by his stack.

Regards,

Originally posted by Leatherass9
Hey guys,

This is a hand played by a PokerStrategy.com member on the Microgaming network. I will leave the thread up for discussion and whoever produces the best reasoning for their thought processes will win a free seat at my live seminar that includes:

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Ok on with the discussion..

Villain is 58/40 with a 100% bet when checked to stat. He has been randomly potting throughout the session and has a very high turn barrel % and has shoved 3/3 rivers so far.

What line do we like best? If we play the same as hero whats our plan on what rivers? Who plays flop differently? Turn?

€10/€20 No Limit Holdem
Prima
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Player5 (€2,060) 103bb
UTG+1 Player6 (€4,221) 211bb
CO Player1 (€2,569.42) 128bb
BTN Hero (€2,634) 132bb
SB Player3 (€5,055) 253bb
BB Player4 (€7,255.50) 363bb

Pre-Flop: (€30, 6 players) hero is BTN 7♥ 8♥
1 fold, Player6 raises to €60, Player1 calls €60, hero calls €60, 2 folds

Flop: 6♠ 4♣ 7♣ (€210, 3 players)
Player6 checks, Player1 bets €210, hero calls €210, Player6 folds

Turn: 10:spade: (€630, 2 players)
Player1 bets €630, hero calls €630

Final Pot: €1,890

For me preflop is OK you have a good hand and ayou have position.

But I dont like the play in flop, first I want the stats of player6, he checks, player 1 pot bet with much hands, here I raise x3 but for to do it I want to know the stats of the player 6. And when you raise x3 in flop you are commited and play for the all of your blinds.

This is my opinion.

regards

Hello!

If he barrels the flop and the turn in a very high %, it should be really hard to put him on anything, it can be either pure or semi bluff, but also made hands. By calling two times on a wet board like this, he may put us on a drawing hand, or some kind of a pair, he will certainly push blank cards on the river, believing we would have raised by now if we had a monster. Face cards like an ace are also great for him to bluff.

1, If we hit the 5 or the 7, very easy call, i think maybe the 8 also, though he can bet 2 streets with an OESD as well.

2, River is an overcard: i believe he would use it for his own advantage, representing the he is still strong. Knowing this, we might be able to make the call.

3, River is a club: this seems finally a card the could have hit him, i think i would fold. Maybe even if a spade comes, he finds a reason to barrel the turn.

If we fold: we can still get our chance later, we might be able to flop a monster and get paid off.

If we know how he reacts to a raise, i think i would raise the flop and fold to a 3bet.

If the hero thinks he's better on the turn, I would go all in, because it can come quite unpleasant rivers that enhance its range.

What hero wants to do A, K, Q, J, 2.3, I do not think so we want to call all in on theses cards.

I go all in on the turn.

Hi leatherass!

First of all: I am your big fan and partying with me is fun (pick me!). I decided to give this thing a try.

My deep hand analysis. I havent read previous comments, because it is too much of a text and I want to keep it simple.

1. Preflop: good speculative hand in position 3way - call.

2. Flop: we have top pair, he is aggro monkey - call.

3. Turn: we have 2nd pair, he is aggro monkey - call.

4. River: I would call him again on any river given your reads and odds.

I know that as a supermod, I have little chance of winning (cause everyone would say it is rigged) despite of fact that my analysis is far far the best of all, and I am fine with that

Have a nice day!

Dear Leatherass,

I am a Hungarian member, and we got this promotion with more than one day later, please consider this, when evaluating the results and i will appreciate it, if you will.

Although i tried to skip most of the comments (to not let influence myself, (unfortunately) the first ones i can't miss @first page)

For first: this hand is one of the few hands, when we should completely be out of line, and play the villain! I think this is important thing to mention in the beginning.

I will go completely through the whole hand, and will analyse the lines we can have, we can choose.

Preflop
♦ Fold is obviously not an option vs an aggressive fishy player (with such a high donkbet frequency, vpip/pfr, and with that reads we have on him, so all in all -> the villain can be nothing else but a fish, and we like to play against fishes:) )
♦ 3bet would be an option, we should consider it, but think about it: We will make the pot big with a 3bet, the fish will obviously not fold, the reg can also call, because the fish has weak range we have weaker range, because we want to isolate the fish, so he can call also light, and we have not much room to play in a big pot with 78s)... I would rather sqz in a situation: when are in one of the blinds CO -who is a reg- raise, and BU cold call (who is the same fish), i would rather 3bet in this situation. (Or we are @BB and fish @SB)

I am prefer the calling option because --->
♦ we will have the best relative and absolute position in every street!
♦ the suited connectors play the best in multiway pots, and in position (or with initiative) this is an old concept, old but gold (and true)
♦ we can play perfectly with the knowledge of the open raiser and cold caller actions, we can call for flush, straight, if the odds is good, we can stab for deadmoney... (sometimes although reg can be x/r the flops with the reads of the fish always donk, so i only stabbing in position with nothing or with very good equity...this is only small part of the cases, because fish will attack almost ever time, when original raiser will check... but should consider and count with it also before we see the flop!!! So we need to make consider in every possible option postflop)
♦ The regular will be perfectly honest meaning he will not bluff cbet to two player when one of them is a fish! This is also super for us. (we will have information about the open raiser range in every flop this range will be bluff free (only very strong semibluff can cbet)
♦ in sick situation like this--> when the villain cbet lets say smallish, we can bluff raise against villan, but value raise against the fish, regular need to fold an AA in that is a spot, and fish can call with a draw, or can shove with a draw, almost an option we can consider (also in a small time of the cases, and we need to represent something lets say 678 flop definitely a raise but 579 also and so on...)
Another concept: he will play more bet/fold than bet/call, because our range is super strong basically, and he have more mid strong hand (overpair TT-AA 678 on his range, than 66,77,88 or a straight, two pair, pure mathematics, i will describe it with more details in later)

Flop
6:s 4:c 7:c

♦ Reg checked (as we think he will do most of the time, because in an openraiser range the high cards is the most part of the range like AT+, KJ+) so basically he will cbet only maybe less than 50% of the time, with his legitimate (honest) range--->
♦ only with overpairs (bet/fold),
♦ strong/monster draws (bet/call),
♦ weak draws (bet/fold), weak Top pairs, not in this case (but every other case), here he will have not much TP maybe 78s( but we have one, board contains one so only 2 suited 78 remains)

So basically if he super loose in that situation because of the fish; lets say 40% openraise, because he want to play with the fish
{22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,A2o+,K7o+,Q9o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o} he will in this particular flop he will bet only:
{44+,A7s-A5s,K7s-K5s,Q8s,J8s,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,A7o-A6o,K7o,JTo,T8o+,98o and every suit A2s+, K5s+,Q8s+} maybe nittier because he wont c-bet the GS like hands so he will check/fold almost ~60% of the hands from a 40% openraise

If he is nittier ---> lets say 25% openraise he will x/f almost ~70% of his range (pretty weird, isn't it? that's because his range will be more overcards towards, than the 40% openraise)

Anyway let's say just for the fun, if he cbet 30% of the time, he should have only 9 combo set, and some monster draw, and only 99-TT is already more than 12 combo. He will fold for sure (against a raise) JJ-QQ, and if he is good KK, AA also, not mention weak draws (like naked 89), and (maybe) 55.... So he will almost bet/fold more than 70% of the time, when he cbet (maybe this can change, but he has a pretty wide bet/folding range against us), again a good thing to keep in mind...

♦ every case, and we need to think about it!!! The reg can be check/raising easily, with his value hands, because of the fish flop tendencies (if he has the read wich we have), so we can own ourself with a raising when the fish bets, the concept of this --->
we need to have a draw or weak hands, when we only call the fish (more preciously our perceived range seems to this),
♦ So all in all, the reg checked, and check/folded as we expected from him in the most part of the time... Now we have with the fish, best option here only to CALL, because we have read, later more about this idea:
♦ Lets just say a very important concept again in this hand, if we don't know he will continue almost EVERY TURN (obviously more turn barrels when there is a lot of draw, than let's say A:s4:d9:c super dry flop...), then we can consider raising for value, but we know his tendencies....

Turn
6:s 4:c 7:c T:s
♦ some guy might think it is a bad card, but truthfully it is a very good card (for the villain to continue), i mean the board contains more draw, he will now continue his bluffing with every 9x, every 5x, every draw (two type) and every 2 overcard (also draw for him:))... And we have the read... So we can state now, here at turn. He will continue almost 100% of his flop donking range!
♦ Lets just say a very important concept again in this hand, if we do know he will continue EVERY RIVER, if we call!!! (based on our turn, flop reads, and also 3/3 river read) we can again raise for value (because he will not much likely bluff shove his weak part of range, and we don't get extra value, but maniac fishes not like this, in my experience, if they start a big bluff they do it until the end...)
♦ And lets say, if we push here, he will call with every draw, but he will not call with overcards, he will not call with gutshoots, and some of the hand, that he will bloff his stack to us at river

♦ And please understand this, we will always go broke with his top of his range: sets, two pairs, straights, draws, no matter what happens, no matter what cames at turn or river, but we will have value against his weak draws, sometimes complete airs (two over) only if we choose calldown line ... And we can't influence the river card, it is no matter we push with 78 vs his bd FD, he will got it, if we call or shove...

♦ i know the board seems pretty scarry, and you want to defend your hand, but if you think in the big picture you will understand it.

--------------------------------------->
We still not says nothing about the villians range, i know, it is so wide, we have a stat on him ~50% vpip, we have a read on him, that he is capable of donking every part of his range so i think we can start from here:

So we can start with flop 50% (due to his 100%bet, and high potdonking frequencies)
{JJ-22,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o} this is a 48% range we have 66% equity vs it

We can narrow it, if he 3bet more or widen it, if he 3bet less (or donking multiway with less frequency, but honestly i dont think seeing his stats, and the reads)

vs 41% range we have 62% equity
vs top ~30% range we have 60% equity

I don't think he will have ever more narrow range than that...

I think at turn he will almost continue with everything, but lets say a slightly realistic range:

{99-22, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, J6s-J5s, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-A2o, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o, 54o, As9s, Ac9c, Ks9s, Kc9c, Qs9s, Qc9c, Js9s, Jc9c, As8s, Ac8c, Ks8s, Kc8c, Qs8s, Qc8c, Js8s, Jc8c, As7s, Ac7c, Ks7s, Kc7c, Qs7s, Qc7c, Js7s, Jc7c, As6s, Ac6c, Ks6s, Kc6c, Qs6s, Qc6c, As5s, Ac5c, Ks5s, Kc5c, Qs5s, Qc5c, As4s, Ac4c, Ks4s, Kc4c, Qs4s, Qc4c, Js4s, Jc4c, As3s, Ac3c, Ks3s, Kc3c, Qs3s, Qc3c, As2s, Ac2c, Ks2s, Kc2c, Qs2s, Qc2c} this is 44% contains almost every possible flushdraw, gutshoot, single pair, and some bluffs aswell we have 66% against it...

I played a little bit with the ranges but truly i cant give him a range when we are behind his betting/donking range...

Anyway now come the magic:) We ask for the math to do the job... I will only calculate now the turn, beucase we have option at the turn at this specific hand:

So-->
Shoving line:
The bad thing is that when we shove at turn, we will narrow his range, and the complete airs will be vanishing from his range so his calling range should be only good draws, pairs, overpairs, szetts, twopairs, and straights->
{99-22,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,ATo,A7o,KTo,K7o,QTo,Q7o,JTo,J7o,T7o+,98o,54o,As9s,Ac9c,Ks9s,Kc9c,Qs9s,Qc9c,Js9s,Jc9c,As8s,Ac8c,Ks8s,Kc8c,Qs8s,Qc8c,Js8s,Jc8c,As7s,Ac7c,Ks7s,Kc7c,Qs7s,Qc7c,Js7s,Jc7c,As6s,Ac6c,Ks6s,Kc6c,Qs6s,Qc6c,As5s,Ac5c,Ks5s,Kc5c,Qs5s,Qc5c,As4s,Ac4c,Ks4s,Kc4c,Qs4s,Qc4c,Js4s,Jc4c,As3s,Ac3c,Ks3s,Kc3c,Qs3s,Qc3c,As2s,Ac2c,Ks2s,Kc2c,Qs2s,Qc2c}
His range is narrowed to this and we have 44% against this range : / It is still OK, we are +EV with the deadmoney, and maybe sometimes he call with worse (gutter, etc...) but not much time...

1696 effective stack front of us after we called the bet-> 2326 before we call the bet, but we insta shove (not much option pot is 1260$ already)

2326/5282 -> 44% potodds = 44% Equity

OK it is seems 0 EV but maybe i boosted the villian range too much : ) All in all I think our equity vs his calling range is better than 44%, but not much, not like 66%... But slightly + EV.

Calling line: (if he almost always shove at river, value and bluffs also)
I think it is good if we see how are our equity at the different arriving cards --->

So we can see at the picture that the worst card are:
♦ A:c
♦ A:s
♦ A:d
♦ A:h
♦ K:c
♦ Q:c

And our equity is still OK vs the worst card in the deck (if he bluff his airs) against arriving A:c we have 44% equity

Maybe slightly optimistic, because maybe he shutdown at the 20-30% of the time and not betting his air (but i don't think so) and our equity is STILL OK! if he shutdown...

We have still 66% equity and if he not continue the 20-30%-40% of the time, what happens? We can decrease or equity with the numbers, let's say he doesn't continue in 30% of the time ---> Our equity will be 47%

Still better than it was when we were shoving!!!!

So: 66%equity and potodds at turn 630$/1890$ ---> 33% equity would be enough and we have 66% --->

1890$*66% = 1247$ - when we win a pot
630*33% = -207$ -when we loose the pot
1247-207 ~1000$ EV the turn call...

River can calculate also this way

And if we know exactly the bad cards, and we doubt in our reads, our tracker program, we are scared money, we can find the fold button at the arriving cards (A:c, K:c... and so on)... But i think it would be a mistake....

River
After all our final conclusion--->
♦ we need to call the river no matter what cards came This is the most value line, against this type of player!

♦ if our read is wrong, or we have no information about his river playshould should close the hand with a turn shove and make no mistake with it (but if he not continue bluffing at river, we make a very big mistake with calling his shove at river...BUT! this is not the case now!!!)

Only one more important thing at the very end of the hand:
If we find ourself at the river and the villain check!, the truth that i expect from him a very low frequency checks at river maybe 3-5% of the time. So the point is again, we never ever should bluff against him, only value bet, because i can't imagine from him to not push at river with his air range, so i don't really expect so much fold from him, and if he sometimes fold, i don't ever think he can fold better than our hand (of course we can value push drill, straight...), every turn when our hand is didn't improve we should check if he checks to us... No point to bluff, absolutely...

I think the key concept of the whole hand is, that we have READ ---> We perfectly know, that the villain will donk almost his whole range, and he will barreling almost every time at turn (with this board texture more likely), and 3/3 at river... With this knowledge it is a very big mistake to narrow his range with a raise or a shove in any street...

Sorry for my long comment, but i just want to show, how many things we should consider when we decide to analyse a hand completely...

Best Regards,
LorD

Hello I'll try to analyze that one

open range MP:
22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
cc range CO:
99-22,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AJo-ATo,KJo+
Hero EQ Preflop 3 way: 28.61% -> CC IP is the best option without info for their reaction to squeeze and for the great implied odds and pot odds.

Hero EQ flop: 46.91% 3way
CB range CO 3way: 33-99, 54s/3/, 65s/3/, 76s/1/, 87s/2/, 98s/3/, 109s/4/, J10c, QJc, QKc, KT-Jc, AT-Jc /51cs/
Hero EQ 35% -> call>raise without info that give as enough FE to raise.

Hero EQ turn: 46.45%
CB range: 99-44,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc,AcTc,KcTc,JcTc/44cs/
Hero EQ 39.77% -> call > Raise because his range is polarized and can push any busted draws and turn into Bluff weak hands
with SD value without info that give as enough FE to raise.

River range to bet/push is the same as the turn and he can do it with busted draws and turn into bluff weak hands with SD value.
Ac, Kc, Qc, Jc, 8c/s/d, 6c, 3, 2c, - Xb, F
10c, As/h/d, Kh/d, Qh/d, Jh/d, Th/d, 10h, 6h/d, 4, 2s/d/h - C or Xb
9, 7, 5 - R/BetB

Regards.

Fold pre-flop and wait for value.

Hi guys,

I'am back:)

vengeance77: CO has ~60% range in that spot not

{99-22,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AJo-ATo,KJo+} 11%

So your first assumption is wrong, because of that your result can be false...

Anyway i made some mistakes in my last comment (typos), main concept is good, i will correct in a next comment or in the same one, dunno yet

Best Regards,
Lord

Hi all from Romania.
I m a NL25 cash player.
The simple way it's always better i say fold or raise on the flop to the pot bet because there are many cards that we will not like on the turn,if we raise i will make it smaller to make him call with his draws and if he shoves well this i want to hear from you what u will do in this spot, i don't think he will come over us if we raise on the flop because he likes playing on rivers . I like the 3bet preflop to but i dont know his 4bet range.

What line do we like best?
- call pre, raise/fold flop. (How much better can we flop our hand?)

If we play the same as hero whats our plan on what rivers?
- call any river (call turn, fold river = money burning in this spot). If he checks, check behind or shove if 9, 5 or 7 not spades and not clubs arrive.

Who plays flop differently?
- raise/fold.

Turn?
- fold. (We call the flop, having initial raiser behind us)