NL100: KJs

Do you think he can play hands like AcTx or hands like AcJx because, if we count the number of his value hand, it's pretty narrow :
AJs/QJs/KQs/AQs/67s

You need 27.5% to call. Assuming, he raises some of them flop, let's say he raise 20% of this combos flop, so river he has 4 combos of value. You only need to find 1.1 combo of bluff to have a call.

So I think it's call here.

Telle me if a made a mystake in my math, i'm not totally sure about what i'm saying.

Hello kosmonaut111,

You are skipping out the most important information. I see you telling us about that he doesn't raise strong draws/FD, though what about the river-play?

How many hands do you have? What's his WTSD/W$SD/AF/AFq on the river? Those stats at least would give a small overview of him and how much he is willing to turn into bluff. Though if you think he is rather passive on the river then clearly we can't do much than Bet/Fold it.

Best Regards.

I have 3,8k hands on him
His river AF is 3,3 Afq 30%
WTSD: 26 WWSF: 51 W$SD 43

Now I start to think that he is agressive eough to maybe shove Jx or bluff there. Also as Laphreizh pointed out, his valuerange (that beats me) doesnt seem to be too wide (although I think he could have small Axs also in his range).

Originally posted by kosmonaut111
I have 3,8k hands on him
His river AF is 3,3 Afq 30%
WTSD: 26 WWSF: 51 W$SD 43

Now I start to think that he is agressive eough to maybe shove Jx or bluff there. Also as Laphreizh pointed out, his valuerange (that beats me) doesnt seem to be too wide (although I think he could have small Axs also in his range).

Seems to be over the top I'd say, rather towards aggressive player who may turn even some hands into bluff. Not sure even how many FD type of holdings he is calling on the turn aka if he is reasonable player he is most likely rather not doing that. Though has still some backdoors missed draws even in his bluffing range and some pairs turned into bluff, therefore I'd be calling it off vs him.

What do you think about hero's betsizing? Seems to me we are always betting bigger with a rivered flush and if villain senses this, he can definitely turn h's into a bluff.

So, my thoughts are that with this (almost blockbet) weak sizing, we have to call off. If we made it $37 on riv, I guess villain hardly ever expects us to fold and probably no longer bluffs (in which case, I suppose we could fold).

what do you think of this reasoning?

What do you think about hero's betsizing? Seems to me we are always betting bigger with a rivered flush and if villain senses this, he can definitely turn h's into a bluff.

Guess it's really up to the question what is going to be the maximizing value-bet for us. The problem with making a huge Bet is that he will have very tough time to Call us. We are polarizing our hand + he is less likely to bluff vs our huge Bet.

So, my thoughts are that with this (almost blockbet) weak sizing, we have to call off. If we made it $37 on riv, I guess villain hardly ever expects us to fold and probably no longer bluffs (in which case, I suppose we could fold).

With our size as said above I'd end up also calling down cause I expect him turning wider range into bluff. Especially if the opponent is also more aggressive one the river he will realize that our betting range is a lot wider and also includes even bluffs which Bet/Fold huge portion of the range.