This was the main event but I don't have the status to post it in $12 and up.
This is probably a really loose shove with 22, but I do it for the following reasons.
Vs a 30k stack, MP3 raise vs BB shove, this guy folds and shows 88
There is subsequently far too wide a gap between his 33% LP pfr and my estimation of his calling range which at the widest will be 4%. At the time I did not know this but his button PFR was 60%, so this gap is even wider here.
The only hand I have shoved and been called since being on this table was AA, he can never read me as being this weak. I am pretty sure this was the only time I shoved in the 42 hands at the table, the rest of the time 3betting.
PokerStars - $20+$2|1000/2000 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
UTG+1: 33,315.00
MP: 30,752.00
MP+1: 65,150.00
LP: 55,641.00
CO: 38,613.00
BTN: 98,779.00
Hero (SB): 55,384.00
BB: 21,069.00
UTG: 34,974.00
UTG+1 posts ante 250.00, MP posts ante 250.00, MP+1 posts ante 250.00, LP posts ante 250.00, CO posts ante 250.00, BTN posts ante 250.00, Hero posts ante 250.00, BB posts ante 250.00, UTG posts ante 250.00, Hero posts SB 1,000.00, BB posts BB 2,000.00
Pre Flop: (5250.00) Hero has 2♦ 2♥
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 6,000.00, Hero raises to 55,134.00 and is all-in, fold, BTN calls 49,134.00
Flop: (114518.00, 2 players) K♥ 4♥ A♦
Turn: (114518.00, 2 players) 3♥
River: (114518.00, 2 players) 7♠
Hero shows 2♦ 2♥ (One Pair, Twos) (Pre 18%, Flop 14%, Turn 32%)
BTN shows J♠ J♦ (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 82%, Flop 86%, Turn 68%)
BTN wins 114,518.00
Based on 33% PFR from LP and a 4% calling range, he is calling me 18.5% of the time where I am a 2.47 to 1 dog if he calls.
In terms of EV,
82.5% of the time I win 11,250, 13.11% I lose 55,384 and 5.39% I win 60,634
which is ~9281-7260+3268
In terms of chip EV it is ~5289 chips +EV if our assumptions are correct which I think they are because he tanked for half a minute before calling with JJ???
But more importantly, because there are 10,500 players, 7900 paid, and we're above the 42,000 average stack its probably not a worthwhile risk. Should I not be making these risky plays near the bubble because I have a pretty decent chance of getting ITM? But I think the fact that its near bubble means calling ranges are even tighter which makes it a good time to resteal.
Probably I should have just 3bet/folded instead though, but I thought previously my resteal jam with AA and busting out the cutoff would be enough to scare him off and the pot was pretty big already at 1/5 of my stack and 22 plays terribly postflop OOP.
