Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
in before busto to blackjack

+1 ♦

Originally posted by Tim64
Couldn't put off the return to the office any longer. Had to play Faarcyde again today. Pwning me with position... ♦ Somehow made $1.5k today notwithstanding, including about $300 on Blackjack.

Dunno wtf is going on there. I mean obv blackjack is a losing proposition longterm but somehow a combination of 'basic strategy' and betting on the streaks has netted me 3x my starting BR of $250.

Read a nice article by Alan Krigman, about betting on streaks which appears to indicate there's nothing in it. Ergo... I'm just getting lucky and won't be quitting the day job anytime soon (aka don't try this at home)!

Call yourself English?? It's Pontoon, not Blackjack!

Originally posted by jbpatzer

Originally posted by Tim64
Couldn't put off the return to the office any longer. Had to play Faarcyde again today. Pwning me with position... ♦ Somehow made $1.5k today notwithstanding, including about $300 on Blackjack.

Dunno wtf is going on there. I mean obv blackjack is a losing proposition longterm but somehow a combination of 'basic strategy' and betting on the streaks has netted me 3x my starting BR of $250.

Read a nice article by Alan Krigman, about betting on streaks which appears to indicate there's nothing in it. Ergo... I'm just getting lucky and won't be quitting the day job anytime soon (aka don't try this at home)!

Call yourself English?? It's Pontoon, not Blackjack!

Wrong again; it's 21:

Originally posted by Tim64

Originally posted by jbpatzer

Call yourself English?? It's Pontoon, not Blackjack!

Wrong again; it's 21:

You stole that from Romanian! ♠_o:

So i started reading this blog at around 6 pm.. it is now 4:30 am here and I have made it all the way to this last page now.

Your story is really fascinating and helpful. Your monthly, quarterly and yearly reports are all really interesting. Your struggles with downswings and the doubts about poker in general was inspiring. The fact that you have managed to succeed with poker despite having a family, bills and a 'non-poker life' is a testament to you. Congratulations, sir! Well played! I'll definitely be following this blog from now on (especially since i just spent a good 10 hours reading it, gotta follow through i guess?!)

I wish you the best of luck in the coming year!

/superfish

Originally posted by ReubensTrain
So i started reading this blog at around 6 pm.. it is now 4:30 am here and I have made it all the way to this last page now.

Your story is really fascinating and helpful. Your monthly, quarterly and yearly reports are all really interesting. Your struggles with downswings and the doubts about poker in general was inspiring. The fact that you have managed to succeed with poker despite having a family, bills and a 'non-poker life' is a testament to you. Congratulations, sir! Well played! I'll definitely be following this blog from now on (especially since i just spent a good 10 hours reading it, gotta follow through i guess?!)

I wish you the best of luck in the coming year!

/superfish

Thanks, ReubensTrain; that means a lot to me! In a world as isolated as online poker can be (with no opportunity to chat about last night's television with your office colleagues at the water cooler) this is how I try to maintain a connection.

Keeping up the blog, finding the right words to express my varying joy and frustration, uploading all the graphs and compiling all the stats is pretty time-consuming. A lot of times I've thought about abandoning it since its original purpose (which was to chart my progress in this game to see whether it was possible to make a living from it) has now been fulfilled.

But then I think about all the blogs I was reading around the time I got started: Yoghi, TimothyVdp1, dandycal/caltabiano, TwiceT, lessthanthreee, Atoks, LuborC, Waiboy's to name just a few. Their writings really inspired me, either because they included real proof that it was possible to start from nearly zero and climb super high, or because they were upfront about the nature of the struggle. Without these blogs available I think I might well have just given up at the first downswing since I wouldn't have realised that you have to expect such things and grind through them. The more information available to new players, the more transparent we can all be about the inevitable ups and downs of this game, the easier it is for someone who is just getting started to decide whether they really want to invest the necessary time and effort into getting good.

So I will try to keep blogging, and keep posting my results -- good or bad -- for as long as I can motivate myself to do so.

Speaking of posting, warts and all:

Easy Like Sunday Morning?

This grapf is the perfect example way i can't play SNGs

^^ Don't worry: it got worse ; then better :

Watched a beautiful movie last night with Mrs Tim64: In a Better World. Oscar and Golden Globe winner; beautifully shot and alternately depressing and uplifting.

$210 6man. BU unk. Villain in BB is 44/17. Notes say "jst clicking buttons"

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,960)
BB ($1,660)
UTG ($2,000)
UTG+1 ($2,885)
CO ($2,420)
BTN ($1,075)

Dealt to Hero 9♦ J♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $40, Hero calls $20, BB checks

FLOP ($120) 3♠ 9♥ Q♥

Hero bets $70, BB calls $70, BTN folds

TURN ($260) 3♠ 9♥ Q♥ 4♠

Hero checks, BB bets $260, Hero calls $260

RIVER ($780) 3♠ 9♥ Q♥ 4♠ T♣

Hero checks, BB bets $780, Hero calls $780

Without the note, river is a fold I think. Once we give him a wider range of hands turned to bluffs, missed draws, and pure air, we just sigh-call and hope, despite the poor odds.

Originally posted by Tim64
$210 6man. BU unk. Villain in BB is 44/17. Notes say "jst clicking buttons"

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,960)
BB ($1,660)
UTG ($2,000)
UTG+1 ($2,885)
CO ($2,420)
BTN ($1,075)

Dealt to Hero 9♦ J♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $40, Hero calls $20, BB checks

FLOP ($120) 3♠ 9♥ Q♥

Hero bets $70, BB calls $70, BTN folds

TURN ($260) 3♠ 9♥ Q♥ 4♠

Hero checks, BB bets $260, Hero calls $260

RIVER ($780) 3♠ 9♥ Q♥ 4♠ T♣

Hero checks, BB bets $780, Hero calls $780

Without the note, river is a fold I think. Once we give him a wider range of hands turned to bluffs, missed draws, and pure air, we just sigh-call and hope, despite the poor odds.

Spoiler

Villain showed 8 :club:3 and we took the pot.

Hehe, good note!!! Must use that, I would fold the river without it, no doubt.

Finally lost my cherry on the $216 hypers on FTP:

Fuugly hands along the way:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
SB ($150)
BB ($510)
Hero ($1,140)

Dealt to Hero 8♠ 6♠

Hero raises to $1,140 (AI), SB calls $130 (AI), fold

FLOP ($340) 4♣ 9♠ K♦

TURN ($340) 4♣ 9♠ K♦ A♦

RIVER ($340) 4♣ 9♠ K♦ A♦ J♠

Hero shows 8♠ 6♠
(Pre 48%, Flop 29.5%, Turn 13.6%)

SB shows Q♥ 4♦
(Pre 52%, Flop 70.5%, Turn 86.4%)

SB wins $340

Q4o? ... is a fold even if I'm on 100%

Couple of hands later, after doubling him up, I find JTo in the small blind. Well, I know he's terrible, know he's making bad calls. But what can I do? Fold a top 25% hand as chip leader, bvb, on the bubble?

QT is the calling range here. And that's assuming I'm on 93%... So now, somehow, I'm fuc*ed.

Few hands later, it was my turn to spite call the mofo:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $50(BB) Replayer
SB ($395)
Hero ($450)
BTN ($955)

Dealt to Hero T♥ A♣

BTN raises to $955 (AI), fold, Hero calls $400 (AI)

FLOP ($925) T♣ 3♣ Q♦

TURN ($925) T♣ 3♣ Q♦ 2♠

RIVER ($925) T♣ 3♣ Q♦ 2♠ 8♦

Hero shows T♥ A♣
(Pre 70%, Flop 97.1%, Turn 90.9%)

BTN shows 4♣ A♥
(Pre 30%, Flop 2.9%, Turn 9.1%)

Hero wins $925

The Nash calling range? 8%, 88+ ATs+ ATo+ ♠_cool:

So I got HU with da fool. With 6bb he 3x oR and I stop and go'd K7o which I have to call if he shipped anyway. He snaps flop with AJ and I bink a K on the turn.

The biggest sng $ win of my career.