An interesting hand in yesterday's coaching that I think is worth recording for anyone who missed the coaching. So, in the situation below, we are on the bubble of a 5max sit and go, with a payout structure of 70/30.
Ongame Network No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100.00/t200.00 Blinds - 3 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
SB: t6590.00 32.95 BBs
BB: t1810.00 9.05 BBs
Hero (BTN): t1600.00 8 BBs
Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with Q♠ 9♦
Hero raises to t1580, 2 folds
Now, our Nash range here is: 25.5%, 22+ A2s+ A3o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s
SB Nash call vs Hero: 11.6%, 44+ A8s+ A9o+ KQs
BB Nash call vs Hero: 15.1%, 33+ A5s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo
After setting up the SB and BB callranges against us in SnG Wizard and setting our edge to zero, the program suggests that we push close to 94% of our hands. Now SnG Wizard and the holdemresources Nash calculator can have slight differences because of the difference between their handranking system, but what we are facing here is nothing slight: Our Nash range suggests 25%, and SnG Wizard suggests 94%, with villains' callranges against Hero set for their Nash range.
Question: What is causing the difference?
No, there is no flaw in SnG Wiz's algorithm, or at least that's not the reason. Give yourself some time and think about it. Answer behind the spoiler.
Spoiler
Answer: Because we have failed to set up the so called "Hero folds" scenarios: How wide SB pushes once we fold, and how wide BB calls against SB's push.
The Wiz defaults for these ranges are very far off from Nash, so let's set them up properly. We set up SB openpush to 100%, and BB call vs SB to 18.4% as it is suggested by the Nash calculations, and we also set BB's overcall against two allins to 5.9%.
And voilá, Wizard suggests 25.9%, which is similar to our Nash range (slightly different because of the handranking).
Now, let's play a bit around with this situation. In the actual hand, BB is a reg, let's assume he has solid callranges. However, SB is a fishy player. Not absolutely horrible, but fishy. Also, let's assume that both SB and BB calls against us the way they should call according to Nash, and we will only play with the ranges they have against each other.
Now, since SB is fishy, let's assume that he openpushes tighter than he should. Let's say he pushes 75%, which I'd say is realistic for a fishy player who realises his opportunity for a light shove here, but still folds the worst of his hands. Let's say BB adjusts, and therefore calls 10.9% (which should be his range vs a 75% SB push). So, the situation:
If Hero pushes (unchanged, they both play Nash)
If Hero folds:
-- SB openpush 75%
----BB call vs SB 10.9%
In this scenario, our pushrange is 68% (!!!). So, we have more than doubled our profitable pushes without touching what the opponents do against us. Bear in mind that what they do against each other matters an incredible amount! If they play according to Nash, they collide 18% of the times we fold, so almost every fifth fold from us will result in their collision, which is great for us. In the adjusted scenario, they collide roughly 8% of the times we fold!
Moral of the story: You have to analyze each push/fold situation in depth. It might mean that you need to spend an hour playing around in Wiz for 10-20 hands, but 20 hands analyzed thoroughly worth more than a thousand hands "analyzed" by a glance on the Nash charts. Play around in Wiz, see how you have to act if you face different scenarios and different opponents with one given stack setup!
Further scenarios for playing around with "Hero folds" ranges with unchanged "Hero push" ranges:
Scenario 1)
SB is really fishy and only pushes 50% of his hands, BB adjusts properly and calls only 7.1% against SB. Hero's pushrange is 93%.
Note: an addition of a small edge of 0.1 only tightens us up slightly, to 89%.
Scenario 2
SB is a "decent fish" who knows he has to put pressure, but he still can't get himself to shove the bottom 10%, so he openpushes 90%. BB calls around 13%, which is about accurate.
In this scenario, our pushrange is 48% with 0 edge.
Note: With an edge of 0.1, it is 40%.
So, as you can see, even a slight change in their behavior almost doubles our range. Bubble spots are very sensitive!
Scenario 3
SB is a reg pushing 100%, but in this scenario, the BB is the fishy guy without understanding risk-aversion. Thus, he calls 30%.
In this scenario, we can't push more than 16% of our hands even if our edge is set to 0.
Please be advised that I might've cheated a bit: for example, in the last scenario, if BB is fish enough to call 30% vs the SB, then he is going to be calling wider than Nash against us for sure, so in reality, the "Hero pushes" scenarios change with the "Hero folds" scenarios.
But the point here was not to get a precise range for this situation, but to show you how incredibly much the "Hero folds" scenarios matter, especially on the bubble, but even when it is not the bubble.
So, take your time analyzing hands. Your goal is not to falsely analyze a hundred hands in an hour, but to analyze them correctly. Play around with the ranges, get familiar with the mechanics of ICM. What I've shown you in this hand is just the tip of the iceberg - e.g. overcall ranges matter an incredible amount, especially on a fullring bubble where it can be much more complicated due to the more amount of people.
So, I hope it was useful, have fun playing with ICM!
akrammon
my skype is akrammon
You are one of the regs