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200Nl set on the bad river card

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gonepoker
Joined: 15.05.2009

Hello,

villain - rec player 38/14, 3b 7,1 WTSD 35%, WWSF 45

not sure what should I do OTR - if I shove it's not very likely he will call with worse (unless has random KQ), If I check he probably checks back most of his range and shoves flushes (maybe turns something in bluff too). So decided to bet small.
What would you do OTR?

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

MP: $270.70 (135.4 bb)
CO: $244.80 (122.4 bb)
BTN: $266.25 (133.1 bb)
SB: $358.20 (179.1 bb)
BB: $200 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG): $775.10 (387.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5 5
Hero raises to $6, MP folds, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, SB calls $5, BB folds

Flop: ($26) 5 7 6 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $17, CO calls $17, BTN folds, SB calls $17

Turn: ($77) Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $50, CO calls $50, SB folds

River: ($177) K (2 players)
Hero bets $80, CO raises to $171.80 and is all-in, Hero folds


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5 replies
x3mwisp
Joined: 31.03.2009

I just bet/fold 1/2 pot. vs some low wtsd nits you might ch/f but against a fish bet/fold.


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Sjors777
Joined: 08.10.2009

I think his range contains more flush combo's then bluffs. Sets/straights he would raise otf or turn. I dont think he will call a8 pre, so the only sd combos he has are 78, 88 and 45. Dont think 45 would continu so actually he is down to 2 potential bluff hands. Dont think he has much qx, only if it would be a qx . I also dont think kq would ever call on the flop. Imo you are almost alway beat. Maybe he checks behind a qx or 88 or sth. He is not likely to call the r with anything that we beat, so essentialy we are turning our hand in a bluff.
Imo c/f

Slightly bigger flop bet does not hurt btw


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imfromsweden007
Joined: 11.10.2008

Agree with Sjors777 here, don't see us getting called >50% by worse on the river, even if we bet small. Don't expect him to bluff that often if we check, so check/fold seems fine.


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gonepoker
Joined: 15.05.2009

If anyone's interested I was shocked to see that the bluffshoved 88 :f_o:
Thanks guys;)


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x3mwisp
Joined: 31.03.2009

Originally posted by gonepoker
If anyone's interested I was shocked to see that the bluffshoved 88 :f_o:
Thanks guys;)

He probly is a gold pstrategy member and saw the siete777 video on turning made hands into bluffs :)

1-0.


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