'variance evens out in long run' partly false?

Originally posted by TheMarxBros3
I have taken the time to read this thread from start to finish and find this to be a very good topic.
I have been a card player-gambler my whole life off and on.
Like VolparF2F--I put myself through University playing the following games.
Gin Rummy---pure skill and the luck of the draw
Hearts---------pure skill if you can count to 13 4 times and remember what each opponent has played and the luck of picking up your share of good hands
Bridge---------pure skill if you can count to 13 4 times and remember what each opponet has played and the luck of picking up your share of good hands.
Poker----------pure skill if you can pick up your share of good hands.
Kings------------------pure skill if you can count to 13 4 times and remember what each opponent has played and the luck of picking up your share of good hands.

I only mention the above to give you an idea of my thinking.

By your share of good hands I mean;
Probablility states everything in this world will run 60%-40% one way or the other over the course of time.
As long as your luck runs true to as little as the 40% then your skill should be able to over come your less skillful opponents.

The problem we all have is the fact that our memory is selective. Because we feel we should win all the time or at least get the expected value we tend to only remember the bad beats and suckouts. Also when we play stakes such as micros where the quality of play is susceptable at best, our good hands TEND to lose more????????????
AA vrs 22 is 80% vrs 1 opponent but what is AA vrs 9 other random hands?

This is what 3 years of University taught me.
That and never bet on horses you can time with a calender.

SO,what are you saying is that we play less SKILLED oponnents and we TEND to lose MORE???when you play at higher levels,they dont get 9 random hands

this is a heart for me,so how is possiblle to play lowest levels,low SKILL players who doesnt know to play well and TEND to lose MORE with our good hands???i would also really like a answer to this question...i know its perhapse bit off topic,but WHEN we ll go and try to play higher stakes and levels,and ofc lose in process,i wouldnt say a WORD...LMFAO,but we do play worse players and get WORSE results???

so,i agree with you at that,and its connected for me to VARIANCE,as all people explain it like that,you just suckout and live with it...and for your explenation about bad memory,i disagree with that,as i already spoken earlier,it doesnt happens just to me,i see a lots of suckouts in general,wich i cant blame just variance...

furthr,i think that progPouger hit it golden:
Variance is a measure of the spread of a sample of results from the mean expected. If variance is small (Fixed limit) you are expected to perform near the expected mean. If variance is huge (Omaha), you are expected to have results which spread very far from the expected result. The expected result would be the expected winrate considering our skill but no one really knows his exact skill and even variance helps in masquerading it. A very good player can seem really mediocredue to negative variance(unlucky), or a mediocre player can seem a great player due to positive variance (lucky).

i am honestly only interested in this last part,wich he described as lucky and unlucky,and that we all call that VARIANCE,so every other losing player if loses,its due to variance...so,i wouldnt call that rigged,but then we are at mercy of machine,RNG or what ever it is,and it wories me that i am uncertain in my results...as i said earlier,i am NOT a losing player,who just whine and moan over losing,i tend to get it in good MOST of the time,but poorly results are going out...and my favourite,it all happening mostly when i have somebody HARD dominated(AA vs 22,or AK vs A2,so we are speaking about 70-30 and 80-20 situations pre and even some mircolous rivers)and get suckout in return..so,again,i dont speak about rigged,so have should i name it??POOR GAME??BAD GAME??so,i get it with aces 10 times(EXAMPLE)vs PP and lose 8 times out of 10...so,this should be chalked to VARIANCE??i honestly disagree,as there is what should happen and what happens,and that difference can be VARIANCE,and for me,it shouldnt get more then very small amount in diff,otherwise,that isnt the FAIR game...

so,what is stopping poker rooms for example to make people wins w 22 vs AA 82%???and then,thats what??VARIANCE??IS THAT POKER THEN???i hope you get my point,i am speaking in general...

i wrote this:

"In the long run, if the number of hands played tends to infinite (infinite is never reached), then, the real winrate tends to the expected winrate. (this is ambiguous too, because a player's skill is constantly evolving and changing)."

So if in the long run your winrate is negative, then you might be a losing player.
If in the long run your curve goes down and never goes up, then you are having lots of leaks to correct.

lucky and unlucky in the short term. If you are playing a solid strategy luck is irrelevant, because skill will decide if you are a winning player. In micro limits, you have more losing players so the edge should be maximum.

How many hands to decide if you are a winning player?

50k hands?
100k hands?
more?

If you say that whats happening to you is extremely bad luck, i think you might be wrong in the long term.
Its very easy to blame bad luck instead of correcting our own mistakes, just check your hands and doubts in the hands forums.

When you are in a bad streak, you never know if you are in bad luck or playing poor, unless you carefully check your hands. THe only thing you can do is always try to improve your game, regardless if you are winning or losing.

Originally posted by progPoquer
Variance doesnt even out in the long term.

Variance is a measure of the spread of a sample of results from the mean expected. If variance is small (Fixed limit) you are expected to perform near the expected mean. If variance is huge (Omaha), you are expected to have results which spread very far from the expected result. The expected result would be the expected winrate considering our skill but no one really knows his exact skill and even variance helps in masquerading it. A very good player can seem really mediocredue to negative variance(unlucky), or a mediocre player can seem a great player due to positive variance (lucky).

In the long run, if the number of hands played tends to infinite (infinite is never reached), then, the real winrate tends to the expected winrate. (this is ambiguous too, because a player's skill is constantly evolving and changing).

Well done.

I think I often fall into the trap of thinking of "variance" as being synonymous with "Luck".

The way you state it, though is absolutely correct.

If your winrate is already negative, then a heater might put you on the plus side for a time, but over thousands of hands, your true winrate will appear.

That, more than anything else should tell people why they should focus on skill. If you can get your "true" winrate > 0 then over the long period, you will make money.

My best online game is 5-Card Draw. For my first 50K hands, my winrate was 0.62 BB/100

But it is positive, so I made money

Originally posted by janushr
so,this should be chalked to VARIANCE??i honestly disagree,as there is what should happen and what happens,and that difference can be VARIANCE,and for me,it shouldnt get more then very small amount in diff,otherwise,that isnt the FAIR game...

Here is the flaw in your thinking. You say there are things that should happen, which sounds to me that when you have AA vs. 22 you are entitled to win the hand. But in reality, instead of guaranteed win you have just 80% or so chance to win. This is pretty common among the "less-experienced" players, as they haven't really understood the nature of poker. But some experienced players have problems with it too.

Poker is a fair game, but the outcome (winnings) isn't always fair according to your odds.

Originally posted by janushrso,what is stopping poker rooms for example to make people wins w 22 vs AA 82%???and then,thats what??VARIANCE??IS THAT POKER THEN???i hope you get my point,i am speaking in general...

Why would they do that? Just to piss you off?

Human brains are a funny thing. When it's hard to accept the nature of poker, variance, losing with the better hand and all that stuff, it's easy to grab that tin foil hat and say "conspiracy!". We are constantly trying to reason things we can't understand.

That "luck in pool" was interesting. I have had numerous discussions about this in sports. Like when team A loses to team B in football, while team A controlled the game and outshot team B 30 to 1. But just couldn't make the goal. And team B made goal from their only shot. Can someone say that team A was better but didn't win?

There is luck involved in almost every sport. Even chess has some luck, from one point of view. But to me that pool story just tells that your friend's opponents made more mistakes than him. When opponent makes a crucial mistake, is that a bad luck for him? I think that if he were a better player, he wouldn't have made that mistake.

"I was unlucky to sunk that white there" is wrong. "I made a mistake and sunk the white there" is correct.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
That "luck in pool" was interesting. I have had numerous discussions about this in sports. Like when team A loses to team B in football, while team A controlled the game and outshot team B 30 to 1. But just couldn't make the goal. And team B made goal from their only shot. Can someone say that team A was better but didn't win?

That's a tricky one. You can also say that the ultimate skill in any points based sport is to score goals. Since A cannot score the goal, either they aren't very good at shooting or B has a good goalkeeper, which is more a matter of skill than luck.

I see it this way: in football (or ice hockey which is closer to my heart) the game is decided by who scores more goals. So the goal of the game itself is to see which team can score more. Possession, scoring chances, better players, and all that is just a way to achieve that goal.

Just like in poker. Usually the main goal is to win money. To achieve that, we do things that makes it more possible. Just like in football, as they have tactics, players and coaches to favor the odds in their direction. But in the end, no one has won WSOP bracelet if he had 90% in the last all-in but lost it. Even if they sort of "deserved" it somehow.

But in sports, good teams with best players, coaches and tactics will win more in the long run than bad teams. As in poker good player will win more in the long run than bad players. But still, anyone can win anyone's money at any given day.

Just as I was following the thread, I saw pool being mentioned in a discussion about variance and luck. What are the odds. I can definitely say that snooker - which is a much more difficult game than pool - has quite a hefty bit of luck involved. While most would agree that the mind sport is 90+% based on your own skills, the matter of fact is that human brain cannot process a large part of physics involved in the contact between balls and the paths they will traverse upon it. Hence, when you are breaking off the pack or trying to push the white into the pack while potting the blue, even if you are a superbly skilled player, you will break the pack differently each time it is replaced and rarely recreate an identical situation. Thus, the inability to consciously process what will physically happen to and amongst the balls can definitely be called the source of the luck factor in the game. But, as we are all the same and this applies to everyone, this constitutes the luck part in the game as anyone's shots can go awry even under no stress and with maximum concentration.

Just my few cents.

Originally posted by metza
I don't get how infinity and infinity+10k are not the same???

That's why OP is confused. Because infinity and inifinity + 10k are both infinite right?

Not in this context. One is larger than infinity.

There will always be 10k more hands in an infinity + 10k sample than in an infinite sample, and we are aware that it is easy to run bad/good over only 10k hands.

In order to understand this you have to view infinity as a rational number (a complete sample) even though it is unattainable in reality. This is the only way the word "infinity" has any meaning to us in day to day discussion.

Otherwise every conversation would go

"Hey, if I do x an infinite amount......"

"Sorry, that's impossible".

Originally posted by Kyyberi

Originally posted by janushr
so,this should be chalked to VARIANCE??i honestly disagree,as there is what should happen and what happens,and that difference can be VARIANCE,and for me,it shouldnt get more then very small amount in diff,otherwise,that isnt the FAIR game...

Here is the flaw in your thinking. You say there are things that should happen, which sounds to me that when you have AA vs. 22 you are entitled to win the hand. But in reality, instead of guaranteed win you have just 80% or so chance to win. This is pretty common among the "less-experienced" players, as they haven't really understood the nature of poker. But some experienced players have problems with it too.

Poker is a fair game, but the outcome (winnings) isn't always fair according to your odds.

Originally posted by janushrso,what is stopping poker rooms for example to make people wins w 22 vs AA 82%???and then,thats what??VARIANCE??IS THAT POKER THEN???i hope you get my point,i am speaking in general...

Why would they do that? Just to piss you off?

Human brains are a funny thing. When it's hard to accept the nature of poker, variance, losing with the better hand and all that stuff, it's easy to grab that tin foil hat and say "conspiracy!". We are constantly trying to reason things we can't understand.

hi,kyyberi...i never stated that i am some ultrasmart or poker PRO,but feel free to check my stats at any room,i honestly dont mind,so we can have further discussion without that "fishy" aeorole over my head

as stated,i am NOT a losing player,so that really doesnt apply to me...as i never post any bad beat or suckout,but i am certain in some things that i speak...so ONLY 80%,you say???cool,i ll take that 80% and we can gamble whole day,even a whole week

so,i am not "entitled" to win w AA vs 22???so the duces should win???they should be "FAVOURITE" here or what???IMHO,if you cant understand that those numbers stand for something and that actually,NO,YOU CANT BE WINNING w 22 lets say;50% or that would be criminal???so,this all is connected with VARIANCE,and NO,YOU CANT BLAME VARIANCE if you lose 50% w AA,as that would be immidiatlly things for authorities,and if you cant GRASP that,i dont know how you can be healpfull in poker world(no harsh feeling or insult),as there is something broken in this case...and then its NOT a FAIR game anymore...

i just make an example of 22 vs AA to win 82%,to show you,that there is some "STANDARDS" and every poker room should try to obtain it??cause,that number of 82% is for reason there,i certainly didnt made that 1 up,that is the number that mathematicians calculated that ACES should WIN,not 22..so,if things do for example turn around,then this is STEALING,SCAMMING AND CHEATING...and that is my point whole time(not that online poker is rigged,lmao :f_biggrin:...),that there is "STANDARDS" and any BIGGER deflection from this numbers are THEFT??!!!so,we cant say all is VARIANCE and if poker room decide we should lose hundred times in a row w ACES(JUST EXAMPLE),IT IS A STEAL THEN...do you get what i mean??

and for my IMPRESSIONS,i honestly dont know how many tournies i played so far,but i assure you it is more then enough,that i would be able to judge for myself...and i will come back to that guy whom stated that we play WORSE opponennts,at LOWEST stakes and TEND to lose MORE with our good hands??unfortunatly,i must concurre with him,as this is also my impresions...so,i was also interested into that,how is possille to have BAD players,who doesnt play well and to lose it quit often???you prolly dont want to hear my answer to that question,tbh...

and,ofc,for any challengers out there whom consider me a HUGE FISH,i must dissapoint them,as i am BIG WHALE

so,any of you,who thinks he can show me how this GAME is played,i am open for FRIENDLY confortations or a DUEL

i also consider this that POKER should be a FAIR GAME,that POKER should be euqal to everyone,according to their SKILLS,and that they should be AWARDED accordingly...anything above or under that,its FAULT GAME...

how about you,w34z3l,up for some friendly challenge,you as a COACH should be TOP here,right??show and crush this...

oh really? REALLY????

I LOVE HU4ROLLZ COMPETITIONS!!!!!!

so,lets say again,EXAMPLE,if we do lose with AA vs 22 60%(that would be easier to count),that means that we lost 42% of our supposed EV,right??so,then that would also means that this 42% somebody else won,right??so,in that case,we would be "DAMAGED" party here,as lost of our winnings are gone,and that someone else has just hit gold,and instead of winning 1 out of 5,he wins 3 of 5??and that would sound or be WRONG to you???so,in this paticular case,we can see that DEUCES are new ACES

so,that eventually BREAK any RULES that exist how this GAME is played,can you understand that???so,to return to VARIANCE,as all explain all kind of weird stuff with it,and i disagree...variance can and should be very SMALL,as i already gave example guessing that 4%+- is set for whole market???someone correct me if i am wrong here...so,again,NO,IT CANT HAPPENS THAT YOU LOSE ANY BIGGER AMOUNT AS YOU SHOULD,OR THAT IS FALSE AND CRIMINAL...

so,again,i dont want to accuse any poker room,ALL i want is to SEE a fair an good game,where eventually SKILLS come to equasion...thats my sole intrest,and not cause it would suit me to make more money or something,ITS SIMPLE I WOULD ENJOY AND PLAY THE GAME MORE...as i play MCROS,so for me it isnt just about the money,as i also happens to LOVE this game...i like mental confrontations on all levels,and i presume(as i am not still RICH... :f_biggrin:.)thats the REASON i play,honestly...

but,still there should be some more looks into all this,to make SURE that we all play and enjoy the game...fair and safe game,i think all agree with it..

Originally posted by w34z3l
oh really? REALLY????

I LOVE HU4ROLLZ COMPETITIONS!!!!!!

you wont get rich

i suggested small fair game,min BI,HU SNG perhapse,winner to 5??or 3??and i am NOT cash game player,sorry...tournies,sng,mtt,that kind of stuff...what you play and at what levels??

I JUST PLAY WHATEVER GAMES I HAVE ONE BUYIN FOR.

When we play against worse opponents, we lose more often with better hands than against good opponents. That is true, but how is that possible?

We, "more often" still means that on average we lose that 1/5 times with aces preflop allin. But here's the trick:

When we play against good players, the times we get our stack in the equities are more closer. Good player won't go allin preflop with 84o that often.

When we play with worse opponents, they do funny things. They shove deuces preflop a lot more often than good players. So we get those allin situations lot more with them.

So lets assume we play 1000 tourneys with good opponents and with worse opponents.

With good opponents, we get average of 5 allin situations per tournament. We are lucky to have aces in all of them! 4 times villain has pocket jacks, and once he has aces too. So during those tournaments we get 4000 allins with aces vs jacks. According to odds, we win 3200 of them. And we lose 800 times, which all feels bad.

Against worse opponents, we get more allins. 10 per tournament. Now opponents are so bad that they shove those garbage hands all the time. 9 out of 10 times we get our chips in as a favorite, and only 1/10 there are aces against us. 9000 allin situations, and as our odds dictate we lose 1800 of them. Again, each of those feels bad.

So within those 1000 tournaments, against worse opponents we actually lose 1000 times more with aces. Human mind usually remembers things that reinforce our thoughts better than the opposite things, so we remember those times we lose with aces a lot stronger than the times when we win with them. That's why it feels like fishes suckout all the time.

I have never said that OP is a bad player or a fish, or even a losing player. I just said that it sounds like he isn't that experienced.

With AA vs 22 you are not entitled to win. You just have made up a 80/20 gambling. Either one of you can win it, but the odds give you an edge. In that legendary long run, you will win more money than your opponent. For poker site, they aren't deciding when you lose or win. All they do is they provide random generator, and the rest is up to odds. Just like in real deck of cards, no one can decide (unless someone is cheating) when you win or lose with aces. That's called randomness.

I have been thinking a lot about this thread.

So that what I say is understandable, I will use the following words to mean:
♦  Luck:  What cards you get -- or other things that happen by chance
♦  Skill:  What you do with them -- or other things that you control
♦  Variance:  The spread in your luck & skill from worst to best
♦  Tilt:  Any emotional component to a poker decision.

You might be lucky. If you are, then great. Over time we like to say that your luck evens out -- but I'm beginning to understand what OP was driving at.

I won a car in a charity raffle in 1980. I'll never lose a car. Well not that way, anyway -- So lifetime, I'm ahead of the game, and always will be. I still enter charity raffles. I call it "making a car payment"

It is not the same for everyone. Not everyone who enters charity raffles will win. Some people are luckier than others.

You cannot rely on luck, because you cannot control it.

You can control your skill.
If your skill level is low, you will only break even on those sessions where your luck is high. If your AVERAGE SKILL is less than break-even, even if your average luck is break-even you will be a losing player.

If you are tilted EVEN SLIGHTLY you are handicapping your skill, and YOU CANNOT WIN because you are making poor decisions.

If your A-Game is better than break-even and your B-Game is just slightly break-even, and your C-Game is break-even but you lose due to rake, then your Average may be positive.

If you tilt all three skill levels are harmed.

In November of this year, I realized I was severely tilted. I did not realize it until I won a pretty standard hand and spontaneously cheered.

I realized I EXPECTED TO LOSE.
I bought The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler and worked my way through it If you like, you can read about it in my blog.

I started to run better as my tilt decreased. At one point I could not determine if my tilt was less because I was running good, or if I was running good because my tilt was less.

The clue was in my 5-Card Draw results.
Once I had my mental game more-or-less under control, I was able to take bolder steps without fear (a form of tilt), and my winrate improved EVEN MORE.

From this I deduced that my NLHE skill was lolbad.

Sorry for the long post.

Recommendations:
♦  Get your emotions under control. However you do it is fine. There is a TON of material in the "Learning to Win" forum on how to do it. Get busy.
♦  Increase your skill level. Read Strategy Articles. Watch Videos. Attend Coachings. Post hands for evaluation. Get Busy
♦  Stop Complaining. Each time you complain about your bad luck, your words re-inforce the negativity you feel. Tell yourself whatever you need to tell yourself so that you understand that when you lose AA < 22 it is just luck. Nothing more.
♦  Play within your skill level. Even if you are rolled for higher. Yes that is not the conventional wisdom. If you are barely break-even at NL10, study till you're crushing it -- then take shots. There is no point in taking shots at NL25 just to lose 2.5 NL10 BI and move back down. Prepare properly, then move up with confidence.

Sorry for another long ramble.

Best of Luck,
--VS

i can agree with most of what you said,but i simple disagree with that i simple have bad memory,as i assure you,i use to have outstanding memory,when i was younger,LOL,could easily remeber ALL my friends phone numbers,their birthdays and everything connected with numbers easily...so,when use mobile,didnt need to search for number,i would get it out of my head faster...thats not a brag,just solid truth...

so,we come to point where i asked for some "more assurments"(dont know how to put it),as i think my situation is bit different...again,i am NOT losing player,so if it happens that i go thru some example where i lose hundred times w better hand in a row,i consider that THEFT...as i already pointed out,there should be "STANDARDS",and it CANT go other way around,or it is scamm,and you cant blame it just to variance...or in that case,if this is happening,i cant see how poker room isnt "DECIDING" the winner????

further,as already stated,ONLY 5% people makes $$$ in poker,so its imposiblle to steal from 95% ppl,right??as they are already losing it,some more,some less..so,only way is to take some of those 5% ppl EDGE and gave that EV to weaker player,that should be only way to "distort" things??and perhapse help poker ecology??i just try to rasionalise,not accuse anybody...so,if we make EXAMPLE,where 22 wins 30% instead of 18%(so,generally 22 would win 3 out of 10,instead 2 out of 10),can you imagine what effect that makes??and we are speaking about small margins now,so,1 hand out of 10 that you SHOULDNT win,now you win...and still you wouldnt find this false or wrong??i guess thats a PILE of $$$ after a while that shouldnt be on that side,very simple...(let some math wizz calculate it)

i am just trying to picture possiblle outcomes here,and find it hilarious when you all start to defend poker rooms,even in most distorted cases(100 times lost with AA in a row :f_biggrin:.),where is OBV that something is wrong and it is as it shouldnt been???poker rooms are here to PROVIDE SERVICE,and thats about it...anything else beyond that point,nobody could save them from authorities...so,lets not speak about VARIANCE and how EVERYTHING is POSSIBLLE,CAUSE IT ISNT!!!

about other math and calculations,i can be wrong,but in case of FAIRNESS AND INTEGRITY,i cant be wrong...and thats the line that should exist,and should be checked every day,for every players sake...PERIOD...

as poker rooms operate with PLAYERS $$$,i dont advise public lnych or saying they are making bad things,i just said that we need control into all that,as it concernes every player,all togheter...

and for numbers,82% is very HIGH edge in poker(most preflop,i belive, )and again,that number DIDNT come out of my head and there is it for a reason,as people smarter the you and me combined has calculated that...so,thats "STANDARDS"...and they do EXIST...and for other,i cant be sure if all numbers running correctly,i am sorry,if you can help me,and provide me with that proof,i would be very thankful

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I have been thinking a lot about this thread.

So that what I say is understandable, I will use the following words to mean:
♦  Luck:  What cards you get -- or other things that happen by chance
♦  Skill:  What you do with them -- or other things that you control
♦  Variance:  The spread in your luck & skill from worst to best
♦  Tilt:  Any emotional component to a poker decision.

You might be lucky. If you are, then great. Over time we like to say that your luck evens out -- but I'm beginning to understand what OP was driving at.

I won a car in a charity raffle in 1980. I'll never lose a car. Well not that way, anyway -- So lifetime, I'm ahead of the game, and always will be. I still enter charity raffles. I call it "making a car payment"

It is not the same for everyone. Not everyone who enters charity raffles will win. Some people are luckier than others.

You cannot rely on luck, because you cannot control it.

You can control your skill.
If your skill level is low, you will only break even on those sessions where your luck is high. If your AVERAGE SKILL is less than break-even, even if your average luck is break-even you will be a losing player.

If you are tilted EVEN SLIGHTLY you are handicapping your skill, and YOU CANNOT WIN because you are making poor decisions.

If your A-Game is better than break-even and your B-Game is just slightly break-even, and your C-Game is break-even but you lose due to rake, then your Average may be positive.

If you tilt all three skill levels are harmed.

In November of this year, I realized I was severely tilted. I did not realize it until I won a pretty standard hand and spontaneously cheered.

I realized I EXPECTED TO LOSE.
I bought The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler and worked my way through it If you like, you can read about it in my blog.

I started to run better as my tilt decreased. At one point I could not determine if my tilt was less because I was running good, or if I was running good because my tilt was less.

The clue was in my 5-Card Draw results.
Once I had my mental game more-or-less under control, I was able to take bolder steps without fear (a form of tilt), and my winrate improved EVEN MORE.

From this I deduced that my NLHE skill was lolbad.

Sorry for the long post.

Recommendations:
♦  Get your emotions under control. However you do it is fine. There is a TON of material in the "Learning to Win" forum on how to do it. Get busy.
♦  Increase your skill level. Read Strategy Articles. Watch Videos. Attend Coachings. Post hands for evaluation. Get Busy
♦  Stop Complaining. Each time you complain about your bad luck, your words re-inforce the negativity you feel. Tell yourself whatever you need to tell yourself so that you understand that when you lose AA < 22 it is just luck. Nothing more.
♦  Play within your skill level. Even if you are rolled for higher. Yes that is not the conventional wisdom. If you are barely break-even at NL10, study till you're crushing it -- then take shots. There is no point in taking shots at NL25 just to lose 2.5 NL10 BI and move back down. Prepare properly, then move up with confidence.

Sorry for another long ramble.

Best of Luck,
--VS

very well,very nice post:)congrats on your car

keep with more long posts ♦

Originally posted by w34z3l
I JUST PLAY WHATEVER GAMES I HAVE ONE BUYIN FOR.

so,when is the match then