Originally posted by metza
I don't get how infinity and infinity+10k are not the same???
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Originally posted by janushr
i can agree with most of what you said,but i simple disagree with that i simple have bad memory,as i assure you,i use to have outstanding memory,when i was younger,LOL,could easily remeber ALL my friends phone numbers,their birthdays and everything connected with numbers easily...so,when use mobile,didnt need to search for number,i would get it out of my head faster...thats not a brag,just solid truth...
I'm pretty much the same way -- my memory is fantastic for stuff I remember.
For the stuff I forget, not so good.
But now that you don't have to remember all of those phone #s, you have more brain cells to use for poker. 
[quotepso if it happens that i go thru some example where i lose hundred times w better hand in a row,i consider that THEFT...as i already pointed out,there should be "STANDARDS",and it CANT go other way around,or it is scamm,and you cant blame it just to variance...or in that case,if this is happening,i cant see how poker room isnt "DECIDING" the winner????
Do you recognize the emotion in this statement?
Unless you learn to remove the emotion from your decision making, it will eventually cripple your ability to win at all.
if it CAN happen -- it will.
further,as already stated,ONLY 5% people makes $$$ in poker
I doubt that that is true. Do you have a reference for this number?
If it IS true, then be one of the 5%.
and for numbers,82% is very HIGH edge in poker(most preflop,i belive,
I ran a test using Excel's random number function.
I win if the result of rnd() <= 0.82
I lose if the result is > 0.82
Over 100000 runs, the longest losing streak was 6.
Over lunch, I'll try 1 million.
You might just happen to get a 6-times in a row event .
Cheers,
--BM
Just to clarify, good/bad memory isn't the key. Selective memory is. If you have this thought that your AA loses more often than it's supposed to, you WILL remember those losses a lot better than the times you didn't lose. And of course you THINK that it's not the case.
That's why having PT or HEM is so useful. Just go through your database and see the cold hard facts about it. I once (2007 or so) said that my AA and KK run like shit, and complained about it at the forums. Somenone told me to get all my hands to one alias at PT and check if that's true. Funny thing was that I was running little over my EV with aces and kings. But I felt like I was having a really bad luck with them.
Still I would love to hear good reasons why a poker room should change so that underdogs win more often those allins? To help bad players win more? That might increase the overall rake a little, but lets face it: there are so many hands tracked with all the tracking softwares that even small errors at rng would get caught. Just go to 2+2 forums and see how much time people are investing to find a proof of rigged/bad rng. Now if a reg finds out that his EV line deviates steadily from winnings (as the poker room would have changed the rng so that the underdog actually wins a little more often than he would be supposed to) he would post it to forums. Then another reg says "hey I have the same thing, strange". Now at this point someone jumps up and drools as there might be something fuzzy going on. He might open a thread to 2+2 news, gossips and rumours section and suddenly there is a HUGE database of that poker room's hands. And they are all analyzed. And now if they find out that in the database of millions of hands there is huge deviation from randomness (like AA losing preflop allin 30% of the time) it would lead to a huge scandal. And poker room would be lost and the owners would face legal actions.
Now why would site take that kind of a risk, when the reward for the SITE is so little?
And the most important question: if the rng is rigged, does that mean that OP would win more often than he is supposed when he showes KK or QQ against aces? Or is it just "the world against me" thing?
People get fooled by martingale system all the time too. "There can't be 10 straight reds, lol". And somehow people think that 10+ reds or black is "once in a lifetime situation". Just go to talk with any roulette groupier and ask him/her about those streaks. You might be amazed.
So losing 5-10 times in a row with aces isn't actually that rare.
Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Originally posted by janushr
i can agree with most of what you said,but i simple disagree with that i simple have bad memory,as i assure you,i use to have outstanding memory,when i was younger,LOL,could easily remeber ALL my friends phone numbers,their birthdays and everything connected with numbers easily...so,when use mobile,didnt need to search for number,i would get it out of my head faster...thats not a brag,just solid truth...I'm pretty much the same way -- my memory is fantastic for stuff I remember.
For the stuff I forget, not so good.But now that you don't have to remember all of those phone #s, you have more brain cells to use for poker.
[quotepso if it happens that i go thru some example where i lose hundred times w better hand in a row,i consider that THEFT...as i already pointed out,there should be "STANDARDS",and it CANT go other way around,or it is scamm,and you cant blame it just to variance...or in that case,if this is happening,i cant see how poker room isnt "DECIDING" the winner????
Do you recognize the emotion in this statement?
Unless you learn to remove the emotion from your decision making, it will eventually cripple your ability to win at all.
if it CAN happen -- it will.
further,as already stated,ONLY 5% people makes $$$ in poker
I doubt that that is true. Do you have a reference for this number?
If it IS true, then be one of the 5%.
and for numbers,82% is very HIGH edge in poker(most preflop,i belive,
I ran a test using Excel's random number function.
I win if the result of rnd() <= 0.82
I lose if the result is > 0.82
Over 100000 runs, the longest losing streak was 6.
Over lunch, I'll try 1 million.
You might just happen to get a 6-times in a row event .
Cheers,
--BM
cool stuff about brain cells ♦
about EMOTIONS,you are prolly right,as there isnt anything worse for me as to see some "donk" make most stupidiest play and gets paid off when gets extra lucky...about CAN happens,you alone said at the end that you get to 6 in a row,so i hardly doubt that you can prove otherwise(that 100in a row is possiblle :f_biggrin:.),and i just supported the theory that VARIANCE cant explain all and that ALL isnt possiblle ,thats more of philosopichal statment...and that those numbers actually exist to be a guideline,and i am thinking that is how you COUNT your VARIANCE,any deflection of those numbers is variance...so that is the main topic,after all..
for 5%,i am in it,or at least use to be 
check stars numbers about winners last year for example???can somebody get that somehow,i could be wrong,tbh...
I think that 5% might be actually close to the truth. Most of the players are at micros, where even a lot of the regs are break even players. And for every reg, there are dozens of recreational players.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
Just to clarify, good/bad memory isn't the key. Selective memory is. If you have this thought that your AA loses more often than it's supposed to, you WILL remember those losses a lot better than the times you didn't lose. And of course you THINK that it's not the case.That's why having PT or HEM is so useful. Just go through your database and see the cold hard facts about it. I once (2007 or so) said that my AA and KK run like shit, and complained about it at the forums. Somenone told me to get all my hands to one alias at PT and check if that's true. Funny thing was that I was running little over my EV with aces and kings. But I felt like I was having a really bad luck with them.
Still I would love to hear good reasons why a poker room should change so that underdogs win more often those allins? To help bad players win more? That might increase the overall rake a little, but lets face it: there are so many hands tracked with all the tracking softwares that even small errors at rng would get caught. Just go to 2+2 forums and see how much time people are investing to find a proof of rigged/bad rng. Now if a reg finds out that his EV line deviates steadily from winnings (as the poker room would have changed the rng so that the underdog actually wins a little more often than he would be supposed to) he would post it to forums. Then another reg says "hey I have the same thing, strange". Now at this point someone jumps up and drools as there might be something fuzzy going on. He might open a thread to 2+2 news, gossips and rumours section and suddenly there is a HUGE database of that poker room's hands. And they are all analyzed. And now if they find out that in the database of millions of hands there is huge deviation from randomness (like AA losing preflop allin 30% of the time) it would lead to a huge scandal. And poker room would be lost and the owners would face legal actions.
Now why would site take that kind of a risk, when the reward for the SITE is so little?
And the most important question: if the rng is rigged, does that mean that OP would win more often than he is supposed when he showes KK or QQ against aces? Or is it just "the world against me" thing?
as i already said,my inntention isnt to attack here any poker rooms,its just talk about VARIANCE and what all it consider under that term...and i already said that all my hands at all sites are always at dispossal...i aint no math wizz,tbh:)all i say is that lots of people explain here that in VARIANCE its possiblle to get ANY result,and i disagree...beside that,i think as mentioned above,that this exact numbers exist to be guidelines what is possiblle and what not...
about possiblle good reasons for poker rooms to do such things(THEORY)i would name first that small rake that you talk about(lets say it is your example w AA losing 30%,so we both agree that would be HUGE $$$ difference,right??),and to mention our good friends from 2+2 now,i agree that would stand out,right??but,it would have to be in some important levels,dont you think??so,for example,if something like that is happening at 1$,2$ or 3$ BI,i think that nobody would really care,right??and in this case,how you can prove it,as i am sure that there is the most of those played today(1$ BI plays way more then 100$,right),and judging by reaction at just this thread alone,NOBODY would mind a thing,as apparently everything is possiblle to happen,not to mention that it isnt so much $$$??(just for example,how much some room RAKE there,at most rooms today,you pay 1.20$,so thats like 20% RAKE,and thats small $$$??)..i think thats HUGE $$$ about nobody really cares,as if you trick someone for 100$ or 10000$,then it is easily noticable(and its harder to do such things to someone with deeper knowladge)...again,we are just theorizing...now,add to this,recent example where PARTY is trying to influence poker ecology,and segregate their player poll as THEY see fit...and on that add that NO REAL controls actually exist,at least that we are aware of in sense if constant checking(as most rooms have RNG certificate wich has done once and in simulated enviroment,and some of firms even later withdraw their certificates cause of this,to be unable to verify it in LIVE circumstances)
add more that all poker rooms exist in some TAX heaven,where govermant is more a JOKE,then actually some place where is more legit...and lets NOT forget,as it is visiable from statments from them,that they actually care about their PROFIT most,you agree??lets remeber FTP,where their CO already spent PLAYERS $$$ in advance(like it is his own),or even older UB/AP where they even make MASTER accounts to be able to actually STEAL??and after all this,is there isnt at least a small seed of suspicion???
and if there isnt still any suspicion,then i always just VOTE for security,integrity and true randomness,as that is in everybody intrest to be able to be SURE about it...i dont see anything wrong with that...
and all we wrote here is just hear/say,no actuall stuff wich you can pull in sec and link it here,to have proof that numbers are running corecctly...i would surly like to see something like that,it would help me sleep a lot better...
Originally posted by Kyyberi
I think that 5% might be actually close to the truth. Most of the players are at micros, where even a lot of the regs are break even players. And for every reg, there are dozens of recreational players.
i think what i seen was general scale for winners at all for last year at stars,can somebody actaully find something like that,so we can see for ourselves,thanks
so,that would be for all the levels???so,everybody who makes some $$$ +,is on that list,even the smallest possiblle...can we get that from somwhere??as i am not comp wizz,as well i am not math wizz ♦
For poker room it doesn't matter who wins the pot, they still get the same rake from it.
Someone can calculate what are the odds for losing 100 times in a row with aces. Then compare it to the odds of winning some big lottery. Pretty slim, but still someone does it.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
For poker room it doesn't matter who wins the pot, they still get the same rake from it.Someone can calculate what are the odds for losing 100 times in a row with aces. Then compare it to the odds of winning some big lottery. Pretty slim, but still someone does it.
yes,but if fish lose every hand and dont get suckout now and then,its over for him...very fast,so all can be done,is to somhow slow that process??so,every suckout is more rake for them??as that fish can enter more tournies??and pay more rake along the way??i suppose they dont take from fishes to reward their better players even more
as then poker ecology would shrink even more,right??
so,now they are(party,revolution)trying to help poker ecology??in what way,please???to preserve players??LMFAO...yeah,right,i tghout it was about thier profit :f_biggrin:(what fish i am ♦)
Originally posted by progPoquer
Variance doesnt even out in the long term.Variance is a measure of the spread of a sample of results from the mean expected. If variance is small (Fixed limit) you are expected to perform near the expected mean. If variance is huge (Omaha), you are expected to have results which spread very far from the expected result. The expected result would be the expected winrate considering our skill but no one really knows his exact skill and even variance helps in masquerading it. A very good player can seem really mediocredue to negative variance(unlucky), or a mediocre player can seem a great player due to positive variance (lucky).
In the long run, if the number of hands played tends to infinite (infinite is never reached), then, the real winrate tends to the expected winrate. (this is ambiguous too, because a player's skill is constantly evolving and changing).
Hi.
If you normally distribute your results, the mean they tend to is 0 as its a 0 sum game assuming no mistakes from either side. Over infinite results there will be no deviation from the mean. So yes, real tends to expected. But no, over the long turn the deviations from the mean will even out as the considered standard deviation will get smaller as the number of hands tend to infinity. Therefore expected value will level out
Originally posted by Kyyberi
For poker room it doesn't matter who wins the pot, they still get the same rake from it.Someone can calculate what are the odds for losing 100 times in a row with aces. Then compare it to the odds of winning some big lottery. Pretty slim, but still someone does it.
Losing with AA 100 times in a row = 3.23447651 * 10^-116
Winning da lotteries (Jackpot UK) = 7.15* 10^-8
Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I have been thinking a lot about this thread.So that what I say is understandable, I will use the following words to mean:
♦ Luck: What cards you get -- or other things that happen by chance
♦ Skill: What you do with them -- or other things that you control
♦ Variance: The spread in your luck & skill from worst to best
♦ Tilt: Any emotional component to a poker decision.You might be lucky. If you are, then great. Over time we like to say that your luck evens out -- but I'm beginning to understand what OP was driving at.
I won a car in a charity raffle in 1980. I'll never lose a car. Well not that way, anyway -- So lifetime, I'm ahead of the game, and always will be. I still enter charity raffles. I call it "making a car payment"
It is not the same for everyone. Not everyone who enters charity raffles will win. Some people are luckier than others.
You cannot rely on luck, because you cannot control it.
You can control your skill.
If your skill level is low, you will only break even on those sessions where your luck is high. If your AVERAGE SKILL is less than break-even, even if your average luck is break-even you will be a losing player.If you are tilted EVEN SLIGHTLY you are handicapping your skill, and YOU CANNOT WIN because you are making poor decisions.
If your A-Game is better than break-even and your B-Game is just slightly break-even, and your C-Game is break-even but you lose due to rake, then your Average may be positive.
If you tilt all three skill levels are harmed.
In November of this year, I realized I was severely tilted. I did not realize it until I won a pretty standard hand and spontaneously cheered.
I realized I EXPECTED TO LOSE.
I bought The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler and worked my way through it If you like, you can read about it in my blog.I started to run better as my tilt decreased. At one point I could not determine if my tilt was less because I was running good, or if I was running good because my tilt was less.
The clue was in my 5-Card Draw results.
Once I had my mental game more-or-less under control, I was able to take bolder steps without fear (a form of tilt), and my winrate improved EVEN MORE.From this I deduced that my NLHE skill was lolbad.
Sorry for the long post.
Recommendations:
♦ Get your emotions under control. However you do it is fine. There is a TON of material in the "Learning to Win" forum on how to do it. Get busy.
♦ Increase your skill level. Read Strategy Articles. Watch Videos. Attend Coachings. Post hands for evaluation. Get Busy
♦ Stop Complaining. Each time you complain about your bad luck, your words re-inforce the negativity you feel. Tell yourself whatever you need to tell yourself so that you understand that when you lose AA < 22 it is just luck. Nothing more.
♦ Play within your skill level. Even if you are rolled for higher. Yes that is not the conventional wisdom. If you are barely break-even at NL10, study till you're crushing it -- then take shots. There is no point in taking shots at NL25 just to lose 2.5 NL10 BI and move back down. Prepare properly, then move up with confidence.Sorry for another long ramble.
Best of Luck,
--VS
Great post, not much rambling, thanks alot.
Originally posted by ShadDoneWin
Originally posted by Kyyberi
For poker room it doesn't matter who wins the pot, they still get the same rake from it.Someone can calculate what are the odds for losing 100 times in a row with aces. Then compare it to the odds of winning some big lottery. Pretty slim, but still someone does it.
Losing with AA 100 times in a row = 3.23447651 * 10^-116
Winning da lotteries (Jackpot UK) = 7.15* 10^-8
you are the man...so,can you translate it to "normal" people,please ♦
Chances of winning lotteries: very very small
Chances of losing 100x AA: near impossible
Still it can happen with AA but then you are probably the unluckiest creature in this universe.
Like Kyyberi said pokersites don't rig the rng because people will find out and gg lucrative business.
What party is doing is an attempt to 'protect' the fish bankroll from regs that withdraw it before it can be turned over in rake. That they did this secretly is very shady imo and should be punnished by the party regs. If every reg stops playing there, then party will end this 'test' in the blink of an eye.
I think if you look at all the poker pros combined they do run better than average over their lifetimes. This is because players that start their poker life on a heater are more likely to turn pro. Variance does even out in the longrun but the long run is too long for this to even out imo.
So you could argue not the recreational, but the regulars run better ♦
Forgive me for missing this but I had to work today. This thread has been on my mind all day and I wanted to expand on my post from last night.
Here is a trick our mind plays on us. This is why we have/get selective memory without realizing it.
We are in the middle of a tourney.
We pick up AA and shove. 3 opponents call. They have KK, QQ, JJ.
Are we a favourite to win the hand? No we are not.
The odds are;
AA-40%
KK-20%
QQ-20%
JJ-20%
A queen hits the flop and we are out. What happened we say to ourselves? We got knocked out by a 2 outer. But did we really?
Against any one hand we are the favourite.
Against the field we are an underdog but our mind will not remember it this way. Our mind and ego will only remember it was a 2 out bad beat.
I bring this up as an aside to variance. Variance is math pure and simple.
Memory is ego driven.
This is where people make the mistake of confusing one with the other.
Very nice post Vorpal. Some day I will learn to spell your name. 
Its very easy to know if rooms are rigged.
Analysing statistical events in a good hand history database, is easy to know if the results are rigged. If the probabilities are reliable.
It makes no sense for me that a winning player complains about rigged rooms. Anytime i read this, i suspect of a bad player.
I have read this complains many many times since i started playing poker and using this poker forum one year and a half ago.