200nl 4betpot w AQ

Hi,

I think pre and flop is fine, I'd also cbet this board. I'd play the turn the same as well, I just think we have way too many outs to consider anything other than a shove here. Some might argue that a c/c is better on the turn even (to get max value from like QJ/KQ/J9), and I think that's fine as well. So either shove or c/c turn, def not folding at least.

ifs

Ifs, may I ask what you think his call 4bet range is?

AQ/KQ/AJ + other random suited broadways I guess + some SCs/Axss mostly.

I think shove Turn is terrible. Dont see him calling of KdJx,AxQd,KdQx. Dont see him folding any pair. If we shove, we cant force him to make mistakes. Maybe already trying to c/c Flop?!

c/c otf would be very bad imo. If we check it's to c/f.

It's not about trying to fold out better hands, there's just so much already in the pot we have equity to call it off versus any reasonable range. So we're definitely not check/folding, so we either c/c or shove. I think both are OK, definitely don't mind a shove.

Hand 0: 74.954% 74.95% 00.00% 1616 0.00
{ 66+, AKs, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, AcKd, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh }

Hand 1: 25.046% 25.05% 00.00% 540 0.00 { AdQc }

Dont really see what he can fold on Turn after his Floppeel, except pure floats. Maybe 2 combos of QJs non diamond?!

That stove is pretty random man, how are we putting all combos of 66+ and AKs in there? I'd say his range contains few AK and pairs (as I expect those to get it in pre), and more random overcards + traps with KK/AA + some flushes and that kind of stuff.

Didnt mean to put AKs in there, just those AK combos with a FD.

Maybe Im a bit too results oriented.
Would appreciate it to see a range from you, to see how we perform against a calling range.

Even putting AKs with a flushdraw seems odd, I expect him to be equally likely to get in AKdd as AKcc pre.

Just for clarification, it's not purely how we are doing against the calling range that matters, since there is already so much dead money out there. But anyways, I'll still do my stove:

MP2 64.04% 58.54% 5.50% JJ-99, AhAc, KdKc, JTs, Ad5d, Ad4d, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, KhQd, KsQd, KcQd, QhJd, QsJd, QcJd
MP3 35.96% 30.45% 5.50% AdQc

This is not his calling range, this is his entire range for getting to the turn. According to this there is no way we can fold. Of course we can discuss how accurate the stove is, but i do think it's pretty reasonable.

If the guy has some combos of non diamond 98s, 87s, 76s then the turn ship prob works out +ev. If you start adding in random broadways calling flop then the ship is more than good.

This is probably an obvious statement, but its a question of what you think his call 4bet range given his 3bet range and what you think his call flop range is. Vs a random 30/22 its very difficult to guess imo. He could potentially be fishy enough to call broadways on flop(if he even 3bets them) but I'm not sure, and when I'm not sure I tend to go into tight mode.

I think ifs and scoob could both be right but I side with scoob on this particular hand because I seem to weight his range much tighter than ifs does. Thats why I asked call4b range out of interest.

P.s. I like the analysis you both make in the other half dozen or so hand evals I've just looked at. I seem to be mostly on the same page.

Whats happened to mbl? On holiday or something? Out of interest are you permanently taking over 0.5-1+ hand evals from now on ifs?

I don't think mbml has quit or anything, he's probably just busy or something I'm not sure on my side, guess it depends on how much I'm needed in this section. Right now I seem to be, but perhaps mbml and/or others will post more in the future, but I'll definitely stick around for a while at least!