Future of (online) poker

Originally posted by patszerdonk

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
when bots will be perfect at holdem, we can change the game and they will have code bots from new which is lot of work of course mastering new game strategy is also lot of work.

BTw - the difference between humans and bots are that bots cannot be creative. Human can create counter attact against certain bot move, while bot will just keep doing same move untill programmer changes that.

So human still has advangage against bot. What do you think?

Or maybe bot might be so perfect that there would be not space to create counter attack?

For example in chess game - computer can just go over every posible scenario. In poker it still cannot, because he has limited info.

He can use stats. But human for example folds to 3bet 50%. Bot sees it and uses strategy which is programed against 50% f3bet.
But then human can vary this f3bet vs bot. Once he can fold 80%, few hands later he can fold 30%. And bot will not catch up this until he collects stats.
ANd still stats will be the average.

Computer chess developed very fast because chess programmers working harder than poker programmer (and they colaborated/share source code).

It's not because poker is a more complex game than chess or poker is game of limited information. If you compare poker and chess AI, you can see that poker AI is behind about >20 years compared with chess AI.

I wouldn't surprised if in 3-5 years computer can beat high stakes NLHE Short Handed. But as we can see at chess, poker will not die just because computer can beat it.

A team of computer science experts with supercomputers and access to google servers would take 50,000 weeks before they have solved poker, so there should still be some time left to play

you don't need to solve the game to dominate humans. just like in chess

i am reasonably sure that some pretty amazing things can be done in NLHE botting (which probably means "they were already done somewhere"), it can't be THAT hard to keep track of someone's stats and make really good range estimations with stats+hands shown at SD.

maybe there is some future in omaha?

Bots already won millions at MSNL/HSNL in like 2011 or so.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
you don't need to solve the game to dominate humans. just like in chess

i am reasonably sure that some pretty amazing things can be done in NLHE botting (which probably means "they were already done somewhere"), it can't be THAT hard to keep track of someone's stats and make really good range estimations with stats+hands shown at SD.

maybe there is some future in omaha?

Thats not how you would make a bot. A bot would play optimal not exploitative, so you make it play a range of hands and expect your opponent to play perfect against it, and the have a perfect counter move prepared, that way you will be 0EV at worst.. And against such an opponent you could play the same strategy, so you would be 0EV as well (- rake).

But he game is so complex that it's impossible to come up with the perfect strategy and there will always be ways to beat the game as long as somebody plays an exploitative strategy.

So don't get me wrong there are bots and they can win money, but for now you can still at least break even against them

If online poker does become very hard to beat in future then do you guys think people will move to live poker or just quit?

If they move to live poker then those games, which are soft right now, will also become reg infested right?

what do you mean with "bot"? i'm talking about any algorithm that can take poker decisions.

a bot can play however the programmer wants, why can't there be an exploitative bot? with their processing power they could make even the most obscure stats be actually useful.

and i don't get your other point either, how can we break even against a "good bot"? in theory it's whatever but in practice even if we "knew" the "solution" no human would be capable to actually play GTO.

Are live games softer had online games?

Originally posted by Tomaloc
what do you mean with "bot"? i'm talking about any algorithm that can take poker decisions.

a bot can play however the programmer wants, why can't there be an exploitative bot? with their processing power they could make even the most obscure stats be actually useful.

and i don't get your other point either, how can we break even against a "good bot"? in theory it's whatever but in practice even if we "knew" the "solution" no human would be capable to actually play GTO.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
i am reasonably sure that some pretty amazing things can be done in NLHE botting (which probably means "they were already done somewhere"), it can't be THAT hard to keep track of someone's stats and make really good range estimations with stats+hands shown at SD.

That's the reason I though we were talking about bots..

I really don't know anything about programming, but shouldn't the programmer know GTO before he can program the bot to play like that? And why would no human be able to play GTO? It's not solving the game it's just optimizing the play with a strategy of playing as close to perfect as possible e.g. Blah234 is beating small stakes pretty solid with GTO.

A bot playing exploitative is probably easier to spot (without knowing for sure) and also you could lose to GTO player. That won't matter at micros or small stakes but at mid- and high stakes a lot of the players play GTO.

Originally posted by maheepsangari
If online poker does become very hard to beat in future then do you guys think people will move to live poker or just quit?

If they move to live poker then those games, which are soft right now, will also become reg infested right?

I guess the game will just move from NLHE to other variant, e.g.. Chinese poker which no one really know for sure how to play yet.

I'm optimistic - and I see the future of online poker the same way as, let's say, global warming

At current moment, if you look at cold facts - it seems hopeless. But humanity has a strange way of acting in such conditions - it let's the situation to get at it's worse and then...somebody thinks of of something revolutionary and world-saving

So when poker rooms will realise, that their ship started to sink - I'm sure they'll have a plan on how to save it.

Originally posted by Erniastukas
I'm optimistic - and I see the future of online poker the same way as, let's say, global warming

At current moment, if you look at cold facts - it seems hopeless. But humanity has a strange way of acting in such conditions - it let's the situation to get at it's worse and then...somebody thinks of of something revolutionary and world-saving

So when poker rooms will realise, that their ship started to sink - I'm sure they'll have a plan on how to save it.

Nobody plays GTO, there's no GTO solution yet found and won't be any time soon. And when there will be GTO solution found, no human will ever be capable of playing it as it's waaaaay too complex for any human to even come close to it. What midstakes/high stakes call GTO is simply a balanced strat with some simplifying assumptions made, hard to exploit for other humans as leaks aren't as obvious but far inferior to true GTO play.

Isaac Haxton is one of these famous "GTO" players and he said it himself that he doesn't play true GTO obv.

Originally posted by JCSeerup
That's the reason I though we were talking about bots..

I really don't know anything about programming, but shouldn't the programmer know GTO before he can program the bot to play like that? And why would no human be able to play GTO? It's not solving the game it's just optimizing the play with a strategy of playing as close to perfect as possible e.g. Blah234 is beating small stakes pretty solid with GTO.

A bot playing exploitative is probably easier to spot (without knowing for sure) and also you could lose to GTO player. That won't matter at micros or small stakes but at mid- and high stakes a lot of the players play GTO.

my point is that you don't need to program it to play GTO.
do we play GTO? no, we mostly look at player stats, try to guess their most likely range and try to make the best (exploitative) decision, sometimes we can resort to GTO principles to decide on something like a river call or trying to build balanced flop ranges for yourself and that's it.

a bot could do that... even if other players are playing at an high level it'll eventually know that they open 10% or whatever from early pos and what these 10% look like.
and then instead of just processing "60% flop cbet" it could potentially filter for, like, Axxr flops and know what's the player's cbet% and barrel% in these flops.

no one can play GTO because the game isn't solved, you can only approximate some spots to "close enough" (which is what the good players are doing).
we don't know what are the optimal preflop ranges. like, you get to the river and villain overbets 1.2x pot... you can apply GTO to say that you must defend 35% of your river range, but is the range that you get to the river with optimal? that already starts from preflop.

as we are saying, NLHE is a too complex game.

The main problem with games getting tougher is the US situation. In short, every half decent US reg is now in canada or mexico still playing poker while there is pretty much 0 US fish playing ATM. So the US regs are still taking the money out of the system while there are no US fish depositing, and given that poker is mostly popular in US thats a huge problem.

On a reg-infested site, typical fish deposits 1 or couple of times, then either gives up or tries another site (because its rigged, you know).

I think such kind of fish are poeple who thing at least a bit. But true gamblers do not think that way. Yeah, they complain its rigged, caisnos are cheating and so on, but they still play.

If they quit poker because its rigged, why don't they quit roulette, slot machines and so on?

And BTW even thinking player like to gamble. For example I saw phil ivey playing some cubes (I forgot how its called) and he knows that its -EV and then he was running hot and I remember there were problmes of cashing out for him

Poker boom in China please!

if computers can beat any chess grandmaster, any, then its really hard to imagine how could a computer fail to beat someone at poker. your own computer can calculate millions of moves per second, not a supercomputer, any decent 1k$ PC. so the day they will allow bots to play massively, poker will be done, you will not stand a chance, nobody will, you're winrate won't matter if you play 24 or 1 table, now it matters alot, bots dont give a damn how many tables you play the sad thing is, these bots might even exist now and you cant do anything about it, nobody protects the players

gto meaning anyone?

Originally posted by belthazorrrr
gto meaning anyone?

Game Theory Optimal.

Originally posted by EmanuelC16

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
when bots will be perfect at holdem, we can change the game and they will have code bots from new which is lot of work of course mastering new game strategy is also lot of work.

I think in order for a computer to solve the game of NLHE it would take it a couple of times more than to crack the most secure encryption that currently exists... Just a hunch I have..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing

As soon as this arrives, we are all screwed.