NL10 SH speed: QJo against fish

Hi.

I would bet larger on the Flop (70% pot) and the Turn (pot size). As played I think you have the best hand really often on the River so this is definitely a push IMO. Don't think he plays a full house like that too often.

Thanks.

He would have ch-raised (on the flop or on the turn) or bet bigger on the river with full houses in most cases, right?

Originally posted by mbml
Hi.

I would bet larger on the Flop (70% pot) and the Turn (pot size). As played I think you have the best hand really often on the River so this is definitely a push IMO. Don't think he plays a full house like that too often.

Thanks.

Well there isn't that many full houses anyway, the only question here is about how much we can value bet on turn or river to get a call.

Since he is a 47/11 fish defiantly bigger turn and river bets ~80-90%

As for flop: if you decide to bet it than you you have to bet any "scary" (spade/A etc.) turn card also, since fish wont give up even his pocket pairs on such a board.

I think flop is a clear bet. We shouldn't just over-generalize this spot - That we should never bluff against a fish. The fish will just have so many random unpaired hands which will all fold to a Flop bet

Originally posted by mbml
The fish will just have so many random unpaired hands which will all fold to a Flop bet

-> well than what's the point for betting if we have QJ, he is passive enough for us to check till river easy. It's a board where he will call with most of his Ax hands if not all of them, and against the other part of his range we are beat anyway. Or he is drawing and will call.

There is no need for cbet if you are not going to cbet turn.

I really don't get this "he will fold his random unpaired hands", yes you are taking away his equity from pot but here there is no point of doing that.

We bet for worse to call.
We bet for better to fold. that's it.

So it's a bluff or value bet? (for you)

I would like to see some other judge opinion on this one ->

Originally posted by mbml
The fish will just have so many random unpaired hands which will all fold to a Flop bet

"

you do have a point about no/few better hands folding and no worse hands calling.

however, do you necessarily think that villain would allow you to take the free showdown? very often he'll just stab the turn AND/OR the river. With AX i think this is an easy check cos you can bluff catch whereas I think QJ is just way too weak to bluff catch so i just prefer betting to fold villain out of his equity share. I hate bluff catching with Q high cos sometimes villain would just be bluffing with Ace high and that sucks.

Let's consider:
We have 33 on the board A22r. The opponent has either 12 combinations of AK which he will call or 32 combinations of JT and KQ he will fold. The opponent never bluffs so we can't use our 33 as a bluffcatcher. The pot is 10bb and we want to see whether it's better to bet 5bb or just check (and let him catch his outs for JT or bet with AK and make us fold).

What can happen with bet?
We bet 5bb, villain folds in 73% of cases, we take down 15bb.
We bet 5bb, villain calls in 27% of cases, we lose 5bb (for simplicity let's say we don't have 2 outs).
Mathematically: -5 +15*0.73 = -5*0.27 +10*0.73 = 5.95

What can happen with check?
We check, villain checks in 73% of cases (he won't bet K, Q, J or T if hit), we lose 0bb in 25% of cases but we win 10bb in 75% of cases.
We check, villain bets in 27% of cases, we lose 0bb.
Mathematically: 10*0.73*0.75 = 5.475

What do we see? With the assumptions we made it's better to bet on the flop because expected value of this move is higher that checking although no better hand is folding and no worse hand is calling.

Of course in a real hand these assumptions are never these concrete. And as you see this bet when no worse hands are calling and no better hands are folding is better than checking when the ratio of worse hands to better hands is really high, you need to be sure really many worse hands are folding and you need to have a plan on what do if the opponent doesn't fold it (and he may actually not fold worse hand).

Originally posted by mbml
however, do you necessarily think that villain would allow you to take the free showdown?

-> Most of the times - YES 47/11/0

it is not a great plan just to cb for cb sake. Why to waste your cb (if you are not following on the turn) if he is calling a ton and you could check and take it down on the showdown in most cases. (47/11/0)

GreenPiece A22r is a different case. On K99 you will get calls from fish from almost all of his Ax hands and most likely one street too with all his pp and his gut shot draws etc.

JJ-22,A5s+,K2s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,96s+,Qs8s,Js8s,Ts8s,
Ts7s,8s7s,7s6s,6s5s,5s4s,4s3s,3s2s,A5o+,K2o+,Q9o+,
J9o+,T9o,97o+ - 71.74%
QdJc - 28.26%

I included picture so you can see his range more clearer.
As I said I really would love to see some other judge opinion on this one, since I think the cbetting and not following on turn is just burning money here best would be to just check it down.

I don't think that mbml said anywhere that we should cbet the flop and give up on unimproved turn..

banana

Your main argument rests with the fact that u think villain will let u see the sd most of the time which is a point i highly disagree with.

Ill leave this open and see if other judges have a similar opinion

Originally posted by sausage646
banana

- was posted so thread would go up in forum time line.

Originally posted by sausage646

Originally posted by sausage646
banana

- was posted so thread would go up in forum time line.

Thanks mbml