PokerStars - $29.37+$0.63|15/30 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BB): 22.33 BB
SB: 11 BB (VPIP: 73.68, PFR: 52.63, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 23)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♠ 3♦
SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks
Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 7♥ 3♠ K♦
Hero checks, SB bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB
Turn: (4 BB, 2 players) Q♦
Hero checks, SB bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB
River: (8 BB, 2 players) A♦
Hero checks, SB bets 7 BB and is all-in, Hero ????
Here's an interesting hand. Villain is a slightly winning reg, but generally we're readless. I'd 3b shoved vs 3 of his opens so far, so taking into account this and the fact he is a reg, we can heavily discount the vast majority of Ax and Kx from his range thanks to his preflop limp. Qx is possible, but still a lot of them will minraise or open shove preflop.
This means the main question is: Do we think he is capable of value shoving a 7 here? There are a lot of 7x hands in his range, but I would be very impressed if he managed a thin value shove here.
Bluffing this runout is very good for him, he knows I have very little Ax and Kx in my range as well, so this is both the perfect runout for him to bluff, but also the perfect runout for me to hero call. On the river he shoves 210 into a 240 pot, so we need ~40% equity to call him off.
The only hand i'm a bit worried about is Qx, but this shallow I think there is only Q2-Q8o in his limping range, and I don't even think he's taking this line with all of them.There are an absolute ton of bluffs, hands like T6o, 89 etc etc, and I really don't think 7x is either value shoving or turning into a bluff here. Oh, and a very small amount of flushes as suited hands tend to raise or shove preflop.
Any thoughts?