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KK 3way 30$ 6max

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Gavron23
Joined: 26.05.2010

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,500)
BB ($1,500)
UTG ($1,500)
UTG+1 ($1,500)
Hero ($1,500)
BTN ($1,500)

Dealt to Hero K♦ K♠

UTG calls $20, UTG+1 raises to $60, Hero raises to $180, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $160, UTG+1 calls $120

FLOP ($570) 5♣ Q♣ T♣

UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $330, UTG raises to $1,320 (AI), UTG+1 calls $1,320 (AI), Hero folds

UTG is 36/15 97 hands
MP1 is regfish 26/20/2.6 7k hands

My plan is to bet/go broke vs one of them and bet/fold if both go AI


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3 replies

Well... UTG can have draws and UTG+1 can have top pair like KQ/AQ. I don't know if I can fold even vs both AI from these guys. and if both of them have draws you are in really good shape because they block outs from each other.

If you want to be really thorough with this hand you can do some equity calculations with different ranges, but I think it will be a call because both UTG and UTG+1 can still have worse hands than you on this flop. I would only fold if I could be very certain one of them was going broke with 2 pair +.


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wiarygodny
Joined: 16.07.2009

haven't done any calcs myself but imo it looks like UTG+1's range has us crushed most likely, doesn't it? If he's a regfish i understand that we can expect him to make mistakes but not massive mistakes. Thats why im not sure he's gonna go broke with this action with KQ (if he has it at all with this preflop action) and AQ 100% of the time. same with hands like K♣Jx, no to mention KxJ:club: and KJ no clubs. Imo QT (although doubtful pre), TT, QQ, flopped flush are much more likely.

rough estimates of the amount of hand combos:

hands that we have beat - 17
KQ - 4 (card removal + not always he plays it like this) (most of them have decent equity against our hand since they include K :club:)
AQ - 9 (against 4 of them we're flipping)
KJ - 3 (+ if they contain K :club: i believe we're flipping)
A♣Tx - 1

hands that beat us - 14
QQ - 2 (not 3 since there's a chance he gets it in pre)
TT - 3
QT - 6
flushes - 3 (AK, AJ, KJ)

so it actually looks much closer than i thought (i should probably practice estimating strong part of the range to the weak one ratio somehow). Having said that i still like Gavron's fold since while he has a lot of redraws against us we don't have many against him. I guess the fact that UTG unknown may have better balances out those situations when he just provides dead money.

ingame im folding as well, although it seems actually much closer than i thought.


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2.62:1 , we only need 27.62% equity 3-way. I've done a very rough equity calc . You can play around with the ranges, but I think you will find you will have the required equity as long as you can give UTG+2 a few combos that we are ahead of (combo draws/AQ).


Board: Q♣T♣5♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    47.64%  46.45%   1.19% { QQ, TT, AQs, KQs, QTs, AcKc, AcJc, KcJc, AQo, QTo, AcTd, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs }
MP3    29.26%  28.21%   1.06% { KdKs }
CO     23.10%  21.88%   1.22% { TT+, A2s+, K5s+, Q6s+, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo+, KJo+, QTo+, J9o }

note: ive done it all in cEV because its the first hand risk-aversion is negligible. add small buffer if you think you have a big edge if you fold.

note2: fish range is very very rough. I didnt have time to add all the combos for him. I just added a lot of random fish hands. I'm sure there are some combos in there that are impossible for him to have.


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