Hi
I just faced a preflop spot and Im not sure how to deal with it.
The situation was:
Anon table
BU 3x, playing 14 13 over 15 hands so dont know what % he's actually opening.
Given some population reads i have on my site, I thought BU = 40%.
SB folds and i have A8o in the BB.
I folded.
It's been more than a year now I ask myself these types of questions and could not come up with a framework to "solve" the situation. So i thought some of the guys here could help me.
I'll give you some things to work on from then if you could tell me what's good, wrong in the way i try to solve the problem, that'd be great.
Math stuff
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Vilain needs 65% fe to profit.
SB et BB need to defend 35% combined.
Assumption #1: SB defends 7% passively and 3bet 8%.
fe of BU : 85%* x < 35%
>> BB/Hero must defend 40%.
- 12% 3bet
TT+, AJ+, ATs, KQo, some suited 3bet bluffs and blocker 3bet
This is usually what i 3bet when i dont have information.
- 28% call
This is the range i am usually confortable to defend with:
55-99, ATs-A2s, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J7s, T9s-T6s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s,ATo-A8o, KJo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo, T9o
= 22% only.
Assumption #2: Solution would be to 3bet 15%ish and defend 25% so that im not "forced" to defend k7o or hands im not comfortable with (wrong way of approaching the solution?).
A8o seems to be a call anyway.
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Scenario Analysis and EV:
I'll use CREV.
• Preflop
BU range 40%
22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q5s+, J6s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A7o+, A5o-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
So I let all hands in BB's calling range that
a. mite be defends but
b. im not comfortable with and tend to fold in game
• Flop
Assumption #3:
I just constructed a simple scenario where vilain cbets 70% flop
any top pair+
draws
backdoorflush draws
50% of air
Assumption #4:
hero continues on the flop with
any pair+
any draw
and let hero realize 70% of his equity (off?)
Assumption #5:
- if vilain checks back i assume i'll play a lil bit better and think he'll realize only 80% of his equity (too optimistic/pessimistic?)
- Decision tree:
- Results: +ev passive defends under previous assumptions:
The actual results dont matter for now - seems a bit off that A9o, K8s, 97s are -ev calls in such a spot in practice.
I just would like to know:
- what assumptions you would change and how
- what other factors you take into account
- do you further specify the model/scenario postflop
- ...
in order to get a better idea of what hands are or are not a defend vs such BU's preflop stats + flop frequencies.
