Day 60
I didn't blogged 60 days in a row completely, so I don't really finished the challenge. Therefore I will keep blogging for atleast couple of days.
Homework
10 hands where I bet the river as a bluff or for thin value.
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AJ hand
Limp: 67
FTC: 11
FCBT: 20
FCBR: 1/3
WTSD: 39
I am dealing with a huge callingstation. Before seeing the stats I was surprised I overbet the river with this hand. Looking it back now it makes a lot of sense to me.
I could try to give him a range OTR using flopzilla, but I thinks I can say by just looking at the stats that he is very likely to call with any jack. AJ will probably the bottom of my valueshuffing range though.
A10 hand
Limp: 44
FCB: 20
FCBT: 27
FCBR: 2/2
Even though he doesn't fold much OTF it has to be a CB IMO. A10 is just to strong of a hand for check folding.
Turn bet is closer, because he only folds 27% and I don't improve in any way. With knowing he did fold 2/2 times on the river, it will be more favorable to bet. I can't expect to win ever on showdown because he has a high BIP and BOOP. I still think this a bet OTT. With all that said, I think this is a must bet OTR. A big part of his range consist out of missed draws and 3rd pair or lower. I am just unlucky he has AQ.
A10s hand
ST: 59
FT3B: 67
4B: 9
FTC: 50
Against this villian I wouldn't mind just calling. I still think he will call 3bets with atleast A9 and A8 , so 3betting is definitely a good plan. Flop and turn is standard I think. I only have half pot size left on the river, so he will get a good prize to call with a weaker holding. It's hard for me to put him on a exact range OTR. If I was in his shoes and I had a good hand on the turn, I would put my chips into the middle on such a drawy board. I have no clue if he would do the same, but it would def the most standard line. Therefore I don't think my shuff is terrible, but If he would show up with a hand like A9 it would have been a mistake.
A5 hand
CST: 55
3b: 0
FCB: 75
CRF: 22
Based on 67 hands.
Because he has a CRF of 22, I expect he will raise with all his good hands OTF. The king OTT doesn't hit his range often, so I think it's a good 3barrel opportunity.
97 hand
CST: 38
FCB: 43
CRF: 29
63 hands
Flop+Turn= Standard. I will use Flopzilla in this hand to decide which range he has OTR.
I'am to lazy to post the results of Flopzilla, so I am just going to tell it. If I assume he is going to Call with secondpair or better, than my bluff will work 52% of the time. Which means this is a profitable move.
53 hand
Only 15 hands.
ST: 50
CST: 29
I will use flopzilla again to figure out if this is a good play. If I assume that he will call with second pair or better than he will call 80% of the time my river bet. In this case however it would't be standard to call with second pair. And because I only have a few hands sample I have to assume he plays somewhat standard until he proves otherwise. So if I would assume he only calls with top pair or better, he will fold 48% of the time OTR. Therefore this is a good play.
K10 hand
Holdemmanager can't find any stats for some reason. Against a callingstation this is definitely a valuebet. Maybe I should make it little bit smaller.
87 hand
CST: 25
FTC: 1/2
Only 18 hands
I don't know for sure if he folds a weak pair on the turn of not. If he does have to check the river if he doesn't I should bet the river. Because I have not idea what's best, I like to just bet.
107s hand
CST: 24
3b: 27
FCB: 44
FCBT: 44
FCBR: 57
CRF: 14
1K sample size
I didn't expect him to call with 53 preflop, maybe I made it the whole time 2,5 or 3x preflop. I should also look at the session stats and know about dynamic and stuff. Still looking at it, I think I played it perfectly fine.
KJ hand
CST: 25
3b: 31
FTC: 33
FTCT: 40
CRF: 25
WTSD: 23
360 hands
it's very reasonable to think that he will fold all his weak pairs and A highs on the river. Even if he folds all his A highs on the turn, than it will be still a good plan to bet. The only hands I expect him to call with are 10x and A8, which will not be a very big part of his riverrange.