[Closed] LT3 - 60s/100s Hypers Round 3

i am really sorry I have to cancel my 10 %. Best wishes.

Any chance we can see the EV graph?

Originally posted by ragney
Is there a minimum of games in ratio you will set for playing the 60s/100s. For example at least 40% games will be played on the 60s. Don't want end up watching 90% games were played on the 100s

there isnt anything specified in the deal because I don't want to hinder myself loading soft games to meet a ratio requirement.

the last block was exactly 50/50 ratio of 60s and 100s, to give you an idea.

Originally posted by maritsula
Any chance we can see the EV graph?

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
My version of HM1 has the EV line bugged. It doesn't show up for a lot of games, sorry. I have tried to fix it for 9 months and obviously can't get it working.

I can show you cEV, but it is pretty much a useless stat.

Hi LT3

I am backing out. If you decide to change the stacking rules I might reconsider.
Thanks for the opportunity and GL for your next blocks!

Maybe HM2 or PT4 as some members suggested?

Originally posted by maritsula
Maybe HM2 or PT4 as some members suggested?

If needed I can do it in HEM2, just let me know.

what will be your conclusion if you see the ev? Why no one asked for ev in the previous the first blog when <3 was in heater?

Originally posted by belthazorrrr
what will be your conclusion if you see the ev? Why no one asked for ev in the previous the first blog when <3 was in heater?

No idea, just helping out

Originally posted by belthazorrrr
what will be your conclusion if you see the ev? Why no one asked for ev in the previous the first blog when <3 was in heater?

With more available information an investor can make a more informed decision.

Your second question is irrelevant. But for what is worth, LT3's lifetime ROI on 60s was 3%. Thus for 10k games the expected profit is 18k. Since he won 16k I don't understand how this is a heater.

You know ev is affected generally on how you run. you saw he is a winning player over a decent sample thats why you stake him first time

So if the ev is negative suddenly <3 isnt profitable?

I think ev is irrelevant for your staking purposes

Originally posted by belthazorrrr
You know ev is affected generally on how you run. you saw he is a winning player over a decent sample thats why you stake him first time

So if the ev is negative suddenly <3 isnt profitable?

I think ev is irrelevant for your staking purposes

I know how EV works buddy

You might be a winning player pre-rb at $15 sngs over a big sample.

Does this mean you are a winning player on $30s? $100s?

He just wants to see the EV graph for the 100s and 60s, although thats not possible on HM1 I pointed out the estimation already over his sample size on sharkscope and his very old first staking topic which was on the 100s/200s.

Although I don't have solid proof but LT3's estimated (EV) ROI on 60s is about 2.5-3% and on 100s about 1-1.5% and no idea on the 200s.

The lower the ROI, the bigger the (down)swings. It doesn't take out the fact that this stake is in theory a +EV stake on the long run, but the long run in 6max hypers with 1% roi can go to like 100000 games. There was someone on 2+2 2000BI orso below ev on highstakes hyper but his EV graph was shown a profit, his sample was above 100k games. He still managed to end up in (small) profit due to SNE.

Than again, 1% roi on highstakes hyper 6max is very good already. Its not easy.

Just my 2c, correct me if I'm wrong.

it will take me a bit of time to install HM2 and import the HHs. ill try do it over the weekend and let you know how it goes.

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
it will take me a bit of time to install HM2 and import the HHs. ill try do it over the weekend and let you know how it goes.

thanks

Seems like everyone is/was jumping at the chance to stake a great player like LT3 without fully understanding what the deal on offer is.

As a hyper player myself i'd like to point out how crazy it is to stake a hyper player and not get a piece of the rakeback. It's all good at 30s and below where table roi can be 5%+. From 60s+ onwards, rakeback > table earnings.

With this current structure LT3 can play 2.5k 60s and 2.5k 100s, run horribly (regardless if EV is good) and go busto before he can finish the block. LT3 loses 2k, backers lose 10k. However, LT3 would gain at least $10,000 in SNE rakeback which he does not share with backers or put towards covering losses. So in this scenario backers got screwed hard for 10k and LT3 walks away with a tidy 8k profit, regardless of the horrific downswing.

You can see how ridiculous it is to be able to freeroll through any type of variance by letting stakers take ALL the risk whilst keeping ALL the rakeback in games where the player is getting ~2% EV roi and swings can get crazy.

Reading through the previous thread, something like this did happen and backers seemed confused how it happened. In reality most backers just didn't appreciate the amount of risk they take on when staking for hypers and not getting rakeback as part of the deal.

Not posting this as a stab at LT3 - he has been very clear that rakeback will not be shared and is misleading no one. Problem is with backers if they don't know what they're getting into.

Hi Andyuk18,

You make some very valid points. On the other hand, I don't think it's entirely fair to say that the Backers 'did no understand what the deal on offer' was. It's more likely that some or all Backers were aware that a stake including $100s, but without rakeback, was a somewhat risky proposition. But that was the proposition. In fact the terms of the 60/100 stake were negotiated from the original proposal to allow an additional $2k of stoploss and for $2k of buyins to be taken by <3 himself. This negotiation happened precisely because there were concerns about small edges at the $100s and general volatility.

In the end many Backers - like myself - decided to 'roll the dice', since they were able to freeroll from the success of the 60s stake (we were only risking part of our profit on the 60/100 stake). Of course it's unfortunate that the d/swing happened right at the start before >3 had been able to build up a "buffer" of winnings, but that's the nature of staking.

Best wishes.

Andyuk18 is right
it is easy money for LT3 to take only 2k/12k. Most of time he will profit anyway with rakeback while others lose 10k/12k.
For example, last time he loses 12k after 4k games, others lose 10k, he loses 2k but he get at least 6k$ from rakeback

This is just standard business people, there is no free money without risk in this world. Why offer a share of your RB when you know people will invest in you without wanting it? Fact is he is still profitable pre-rb on 60s and 100s. People probably underestimated the variance of 100s. When LT3 runs hot, nobody complains or care about variance.

The other guy "variancekiller" here also uses the same concept, as long people willing to stake him on his conditions he's fine with it. This is business people. Learn from your mistakes and do better homework before staking.

The reason why I (or most of us) staked here is because LT3 promised he'd play at least half of the games on 60s where his ROI is extremely high for that limit. With such high ROI I did some simulations and the swings were minimal but I knew the swings on 100s already, everything around 100-300BI swing is still "std" and within reality of variance. Nonetheless I took a +EV gamble that I won't regret.

Is this staking still going ahead?

hi guys, it was a busy weekend. didn't get time to try get HM2 working.

I will cancel this block. Doesn't look like I have enough interest.

Thanks for the discussions about the terms. There may be future opportunities to stake me on different terms. Keep an eye on this forum.

Thanks