16,5$ 99

b/c stuff like 66 would be really horrible on this super dry board in his spot

easy call flop, we dont want to turn this overpairs into a bluff (i dont think he folds tt anyways) and we dont have a valueshove

The move is probably ev+, but I don't think it's the best one.

Let's say he's opening 66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ (8.7%) wich is kinda of wide as he seems really solid, the stat you gave us doesn't mean that much as a cbet from position isn't the same thing as OOP, so from his starting range he's protecting all the lower pairs, beting trips and overs for value, is he really leading AT,AJ,KQ? I doubt (he's rly solid), you have to ask yourself if you're confortable in turning your 99 into a bluff catcher wich seems like the more logical line here, to float the flop and evaluate the turn, if AT,AJ,AQ,KQ,AK had lead the flop they would check to a brick, but in general from this player I don't expect him to lead flops and 2nd barell unless he has it.

For the calculations I'll consider 77+,AKo,AQs+ as I don't think he's leading wider than this.Gives you 44% equity.

However I don't think he's calling with AQ, your move really makes it look like midlish pairs, so you get a little more fold equity from that

Leading range:77+,AKo,AQs+ (5.13%)
Calling range:77+,AKs (3.92%)
FE:23.59%
The move has an ev of aprox +2.3bb's , considering you have antes and all, I don't think it is that of a good risk reward situation, so my main move would be to float and evaluate.

Thanks guys!

If I win +2,3bbs I think it's a very-very good risk award for me, clear +EV. ♦

My problem is:
what do I do on J, Q, K, A turns? It's almost third of the deck. What do I do if I the turn is a blank, and he keeps betting? What if the turn is a blank and I get c/raised? If I checkbehind turn I give AQ, AK, KQ opportunities to get there twice, so I'm basically giving them EQ. That's why I don't like calling vs his stack size, since it raises a lot of further questions.

So even if we "evaluate", basically skipping the questions of later streets, we need to have a plan, but what plan? (In 63 hands his postflop stats are irrelevant, so it doesn't get me closer to the right solution.)

Originally posted by AceSteph
Thanks guys!

If I win +2,3bbs I think it's a very-very good risk award for me, clear +EV. ♦

My problem is:
what do I do on J, Q, K, A turns? It's almost third of the deck. What do I do if I the turn is a blank, and he keeps betting? What if the turn is a blank and I get c/raised? If I checkbehind turn I give AQ, AK, KQ opportunities to get there twice, so I'm basically giving them EQ. That's why I don't like calling vs his stack size, since it raises a lot of further questions.

So even if we "evaluate", basically skipping the questions of later streets, we need to have a plan, but what plan? (In 63 hands his postflop stats are irrelevant, so it doesn't get me closer to the right solution.)

I'm kinda of the sheldon cooper of cybernetic sarcasm but you were joking right ♦?

Well, firstly as I said above, against this particular opponent I wouldn't even be boughtered by the J, but assuming a Q,K,A were to hit (that's about a 20% occurence) if he was to bet he would have like 3.2k wich would make it impossible for him to shove, but anyway against this player I would fold the turn, to a 2:d I would peel 1 more depending on the sizing, but would be more inclined to fold to bigger sizes considering how solid the opp is.
Also of the range I gave him only 29,4% are combos with Ax,Kx,Qx so most of the times you would have to procced carefully too.

Cliffs:If he 2nd barrels and the turn is a brick, fold to big/mid sizings (as this indicates he wants to shove the river) and peel small sizings (this should be close, beetwen shoving,peeling or folding);Ax,Kx be more inclined to fold.

.

Hi all,

Call, probably fold the turn to a big bet (you have aces in your range here right? and not much worse than 99?). If he wants to bluff into this range, go ahead buddy.

Next best option is raise/call.