HU 25 - A5s Trips

Hi

Turn is a pretty clear call. Protection is not too important here. You are up against so many strinfer AX hands.

I feel that u should bet smaller on river to induce a thin call. I dont think he will cc river with too many worse hands so u need to make the bet size smaller.

Few people will bet twice with KX and cc the river.

there are no many aces in his range cause he would have the last ace from the deck. the way he bets small flop small turn I would put him on some Kx, flush draws, gutshots. If he had wtsd not around 24 but around 31 than it would be easy push. on the other hand his agression is 2 so that means that if his hand wouldn't get better by the river he would play check\fold. well, I would push on the turn and would hope that he would herocall us with his Kx and draws. Should we push on 6 river?

we should bet small in order to induce thin call from what? from Qx? I don't see many Qx on the river except for flush draws and I don't think that Qx would call as his wtsd is 24. I don't see any other hand that would call us on the river with such wtsd except for Kx and Ax. He may have Kx because he bet weak flop/turn and doesn't see any value from river shove after 2 calls and would like to induce bluffs and wants to bluff catch. so the river is easy push as the only hands he would call are Kx and Ax

he is a careful solid player. Such players usually check flop or bet flop checkcall turn w KX. Only lags who barrel a lot tend to merge their thin value range.

I could see arguments for doing it with KJ and KQ but K9 is just bad imo and totally unexpected.

If we knew he either has KX or nothing obviously a pot bet makes the most sense. Just that in my mind i am discounting AX and KX to such a huge extent, so i think making a silly 1/4 pot bet to induce a hero call from QX or a spazz push from air may be the better option.

A blank river only makes it slightly likelier for villain to have KX. He would have more combos of KX, but at the same time its likelier for him to hero call trips than with second pair (even though both have similar relative hand strength). Then again betting twice w KX and checkfolding a blank river just seems so bad to me (when there are busted draws)

Hmmm. All our interpretations are interesting.
Glad you cleared out my doubt on the turn raise, but I'd still stick on my river bet as xe might be a solid player, but a bad one, hence I do expect these kind of calls all the time from all xyr Kx which is also the most common hand from xem. [xe did have a huge T barrel CB stat]
I do not see anything else calling like QQ or worse nor bluffing as xe never did basically.

The thing is, if xe had an Ax I highly doubt xe wouldn't have bet it.

Profile: careful solid player
AF: 2.1

you offer to bet 1\4 of the pot in order to induce bluffs, but do you really think that guy with AF 2.1 is very bluffy?

i don't think those are very strong reads so a small bet may work better.

as mentioned if my assumptions are right, then a small bet makes more sense. if they are wrong and villain has KX here very often then a larger bet is better.

could you please explain how did you come to this asumptions with stats
Profile: careful solid player
AF: 2.1
WTSD: 24
I must be missing something =\

Originally posted by blumpkin
could you please explain how did you come to this asumptions with stats
Profile: careful solid player
AF: 2.1
WTSD: 24
I must be missing something =\

Careful solid as in tighter than general fish and manages to fold.
Hence the semi-standard WTSD and AF.
Doesn't mean xe's a good player, indeed xe's not. ♦

solid I understood not as a good player but as straightforward player looking into only his own cards and seeking for nuts