Villain is 50/3/0.7/36
Full Tilt, $1/$2 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A♣ Q♥
UTG folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls
Flop: ($6) 4♠ 9♥ 4♦ (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls
Turn: ($9) 7♠ (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds
River: ($13) 3♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
bet river?
I dont like the turnbet, 1 of them will have a pair too often on this board.
There is no point in betting this river, better hands (pairs) wont fold on this board and most worse hand wont call. Just check behind and hope to win the pot.
i think the turnbet is good. both players seem to be fishy, as they have to raise a 9, pocket or 4 on the flop. both might have overcards, so we often can easily bet for value+protection and the possibility of a free showdown.
a checkraise on the turn is unlikely as our opponents rarely have a 4 in their coldcalling range, more often a 9. so we would have to call that checkraise and decide on the river, if the cr is often enough a (semi)bluff. but i doubt that it's one, as the cr happens 3handed. b/c turn, fold river ui
as sb check/calls again on the turn, i bet the river against a high, k high, even q high.
hm, you have to put the wts in relation to the vpip. 50/36 calls a lot more hands, than 25/39. also: what do you think is his holding? any better hand than our a high would have betted or raised somewhere. valuebet river, with this reads - in my opinion
A WTS of 36 is lower than usual for a fish. I supose he calls with every ace but also with AK, 3, 7, 9 or a pocket so it is close.
Let us equilate hero's equity:
I think here villain calls 30% preflop.
1)full range
river 44-77, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J9s+, A3o+, K8o+, QTo+ it is 65.81%
but vs a possible calling-range of
2)river calling range a
44-66, 22, A5s+, A3s-A2s, K9s, K7s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, A5o+, A3o, K9o
it is only 43,83%
3)river calling range b
vs 44-66, 22, ATs+, A8s-A5s, A3s-A2s, K7s, ATo+, A8o-A5o, A3o (9 makes action befor river)
54,XX%.
The situation is marginal and correlates strongly with the assumptions. I suppose vs WTS=40 it is a clear valuebet but here I do not know.
well, AK would 3-bet preflop, pockets often too. at least a 9 would often cr the flop and even fish often bet their trips at the latest on the turn. imo he's often on an a high or k high. sometimes a little pocket
