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Ok, another HU hand..

$1/$2 Zoom No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
SB ($377) 189bb
pleno1 (BB) ($229.64) 115bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 2 players) pleno1 is BB x x
SB raises to $4, pleno1 calls $2

Flop: 7♥ 8♠ 5♠ ($8, 2 players)
pleno1 checks, SB bets $5.04, pleno1 raises to $17, SB calls $11.96

Turn: 10:diamond: ($42, 2 players)
pleno1 bets $33, SB calls $33

River: K♠ ($108, 2 players)
pleno1 bets $62, SB goes all-in $323

Talk to me about both ranges.

Flop:
1. SB did cbet to this very frightful board, so I think he has at least some backdoor draws. No A-high hands or 3-rd pair.
2. Hero did x/r to this board. I expect him to have a flushdraw, an OESD (maybe with pair, f.e. 86) as semi-bluff and 2-pair+ for value. Also he may have some overpairs QQ+, which he somewhy decided to slowplay on preflop, but it's not so probably.
3. SB called hero's x/r. I expect him to have a flush-draw or a straight draw and maybe some 2 bottom pairs or 85. I think overpairs, 87 and sets+ should 3-bet here. But maybe he calls with set to raise on a blank turn to get more value.

Turn:
1. Hero bets after x/r. Now I don't expect him to have an OESD with 6x, because this hand has no more equity. He can have a value hand as overpair, 87 and set+ and any draw. I think his range didn't become much shorter and it's strong.
2. SB didn't raise turn, so I think if he's an adequate player (we must expect this when we play against unknown one), he should raise with any strong hand such as 87 and set+. I expect him to have a flushdraw or maybe T9.

River:
1. Hero bets again, I don't know if he can bluff here.
2. SB raises all-in on a card which can give him a made flush. At least he represents only flush here by his raise, even straights would probably call here.
3. Hero's pot odds are 113/458=24.6%, and I don't expect a random player to bluff in this spot so frequently. Maybe 10-15%, but that's not enough to bluffcatch.

Result:
I would suggest hero to call only with flush and to fold everything else.

P.S. I didn't ever play at NL200 HU, so I don't know the population tendentions there, I just say how it seems to me. So my point of view to this may be very far from the truth.

PREFLOP:
SB: i would assume some standard opening 80-90%

BB: passive defense with something like TT-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K5s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, AJo-A2o, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T8o, 98o

FLOP:
SB: most likely sb would bet/3bet any overpair+ or monster draws like As6s, so i consider that he will check/call with any relatively good made hand and relatively good draws. Range estimate is following:
66, 44, A6, K6, Q6, J9, J6, T9-T6, 63s, A8, A7, A5, K8, K7, K5, Q8, Q7, J8, J7, T9, 98, 97, 95, 76, 65, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, 4s2s, 3s2s, 4s3s, As2s, As3s, Ks2s, Qs2s, Js2s, Ts2s, 9s2s, 4s2s, 3s2s

BB: hero might be check raising with any relatively good draw and top pair+:
TT-44, A9, A8, A6, K9, K8, Q8, J8+, T8+, 98, K6s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AsTs, As7s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, Ks7s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s , Ts7s

TURN:
SB: after check/call i would assume that all 5x and 7x pairs will be folded (in case they do not have some draw), hands that now have 2pair+ i would expect to make a re-raise. Expected range is something like: 66, A6, K6, Q6, J6, T9, T6, A8, K8, Q8, J8, T9, T6, 98, 97, 95, 76, 65, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, 4s2s, 3s2s, 4s3s, As2s, As3s, Ks2s, Qs2s, Js2s, Ts2s, 9s2s, 4s2s, 3s2s

BB: hero range is pretty much the same as on flop: TT-55, A9, A8, A6, K9, K8, Q8, J8+, T8+, 98, K6s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AsTs, As7s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, Ks7s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s , Ts7s

RIVER:
In general heroes range is still ahead on this river.
The question is what hero expects to get call from? SB range is polarized here and is ether flash or "trash". I don't think it is likely to get a hero call from a pair of 8s. Thus if this is a value bet than hero expects value from flash or possible 2pair that hit river or knowing the above tries to bluff. This makes hero betting range polarized as well.

I would expect check from hero with 2pair, set or straight or hands like 99 on such a river.

SB: as hero's range is polarized in this spot and shifted towards flashes i do not consider this as a good spot for bluff as hero will not fold better hand, thus sb range is mainly flashes.

BB: bet with something like (any flash, 66, 56, A6, 98) and call with flash

Originally posted by pleno1
Ok, another HU hand..

$1/$2 Zoom No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
SB ($377) 189bb
pleno1 (BB) ($229.64) 115bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 2 players) pleno1 is BB x x
SB raises to $4, pleno1 calls $2

SB range can vary a lot here. Without reads can just assume 80% opens with minraises.

22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 95o+, 85o+, 76o

Hero just calls, since its a minraise can defend wide.
Will take a stab at guessing that hero defends more by calling vs a 2x than by 3betting super wide so rough guess at calling range is

44-99, A2s-A9s, K6s-KJs, Q7s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o-ATo, K6o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o

Originally posted by pleno1
Flop: 7♥ 8♠ 5♠ ($8, 2 players)
pleno1 checks, SB bets $5.04, pleno1 raises to $17, SB calls $11.96

SB cbet can vary a lot, though this board does hit hero's range pretty well.

Would expect hero to x/r:
straight, set, 2p, 7x+ pairs, T9, 6x with bdfd, overcard FD, 4x/9x with bdfd as bluffs

Would expect SB to defend by just calling

7x/8x, FD, 6x, T9, A high bdfd, pair+gutshot

Originally posted by pleno1
Turn: 10:diamond: ($42, 2 players)
pleno1 bets $33, SB calls $33

Guessing hero follows up on turn with all

top pair+,9x, FD.

SB defends 8x+ (including AsTx that hit),FD,T9,97

Originally posted by pleno1
River: K♠ ($108, 2 players)
pleno1 bets $62, SB goes all-in $323

Hero's bet on river is quite interesting, as it is somewhat smaller pot % and to me looks to be a range including a lot more thinner value bets than just FD that hit. I think hero will still have flush, but wants to value bet wider than this so to accomodate his range value betting, must bet smaller with a wider range. With some non nutted value betting hands, I think villain may be tempted to bluff jam sometimes unlike above poster suggests.

Villains bluffs w any 2 needs to work: 323/(323+108+62) = 65%
Meaning we should defend 35% of our river betting range.

20c flushes,21c straights,9c sets,49c 2pair, ???c air

We have 99 value combos here, but also probably bluffing roughly once for every 2 value hands (maybe even more since river is a scare card to a lot of villains range) so overall betting 148 combos which means that readless we call 51 combos which means that without adjusting to player or stake reads (eg. villain is expected to be unbalanced towards value in this spot) hero calls river with:

Set or better.

Lemme know if I'm way off

Hey

I loved this thread.

Metza and Zerg are our winners and will be upgraded tomorrow morning and have platinum status untill the end of the bootcamp.

Congrats guys.

I think you checked raised with a fludhdraw because you will not bet on the river otherwise. On this river you can't play set or less in a different way than check call, because you need to keep pot small in case your opponent has made the flush. So considering the lines of both players and your seizing I think you had flush and he either was bluffing or had a flush as well(perhaps even better than yours)

Originally posted by pleno1
Hey

I loved this thread.

Metza and Zerg are our winners and will be upgraded tomorrow morning and have platinum status untill the end of the bootcamp.

Congrats guys.

Awesome! Thanks Pleno!

Look forward to the bootcamp

Congrats guys!

Good job guys, enjoy all the fun bits!

Thanks! ♠_biggrin: