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is this fold right?

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stttNNN
Joined: 21.07.2010

I fold to this turn bet becouse I think I dont get the right odds and I think I will not get payed any way if I hit my flush. do u guys agree with my way to think in this spot?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
HEM2
10 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($120.02) 60bb
UTG+1 ($1,188.33) 594bb
UTG+2 ($395) 198bb
MP1 ($411.66) 206bb
MP2 ($385.21) 193bb
MP3 ($192.23) 96bb
CO ($666.48) 333bb
stttNNN (BTN) ($196) 98bb
SB ($148.40) 74bb
BB ($203.02) 102bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 10 players) stttNNN is BTN A♣ J♣
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, UTG+2 calls $6, 4 folds, stttNNN calls $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4

Flop: 8♣ 7♠ Q♣ ($25, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $18, 1 fold, stttNNN calls $18, BB folds

Turn: 3♦ ($59.48, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $42, stttNNN folds

Final Pot: $17.48
stttNNN shows
A♣ J♣

UTG+1 wins $101.48 (net +$35.48)

UTG+2 lost $6
stttNNN lost $24
BB lost $4


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4 replies
mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

It's pretty close in my opinion. I would just call because our A or even J might be outs and villain has some weaker flushdraws in his range. I agree that we're not getting much value vs. good opponent if we hit our flush, he might even bet/fold some weak flushes.


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Itsnevereasy
Joined: 08.08.2010

Do we have fold equity if we raise turn? What about if we continue on the river after the turn raise? What if we call and miss, he bets...can we get him to fold an overpair if we raise?

...think outside the box. Happy New Year!


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sirrybob
Joined: 16.01.2012

Noooo folding is not good.
Think of these things:
1. sometimes villain gives up river with a draw and you win
2. sometimes you hit an ace or jack and checkback and win
3. sometimes you hit your flush and villain has a set/2pair/flush or continues
bluffing a straight draw and you make more money

So - lets look at how much money we need to make to justify calling turn.

_____________________
Turn: 3Diamond ($59.48, 2 pla
yers)
UTG+1 bets $42, stttNNN folds
_____________________

So calling 42$ into a pot that will be 143.48$.
Lets make some assumptions (gonna start with bad ones for you to show how not close this spot is).

46 cards left in the deck, 9 make you a flush and 6 a pair, so 31 blank rivers.
Here I want to treat 7,8,Q differently than rest of deck.

So on the 23 non 7,8,Q rivers lets say you always lose for an ev of -42$

On 7,8,Q I think villain's will bluff less, so lets say you win 10% of the time on those 8 rivers. Winning 10% of 143.48$ is 14.35, so our ev here is -27.65$

On an ace or jack river it's hard to estimate what exactly will happen. I think assuming on ace river we win ~half the pot, and on a jack river we win 10% of the pot would be reasonable. I'm assuming you fold to a bet and checkdown and lose most of the time on a jack, and that on the ace you fold to a bet but checkdown and win.

So for the 3 aces we win 50% of the pot for 71.74$ and an ev of 29.74$.
For the 3 jacks we win the same as on the 7,8,Q so lose -27.65$.

So far doesn't look good :)

So I'm going to sum all of this up and see how much we need to make on average when hitting a flush to make up for what we lose the rest of the time.

(23/45*(-42)+8/45*(-27.65)+3/45*(29.74)+3/45*(-27.65))= -26.24

So if x is how much we win when we hit a flush, to breakeven on a turn call we'd need:
(x-42)*9/45=-26.4--->x=140.4

So... when hitting your flush you'd need to win a pot that's bigger than 140.4 in order to profit. Given that after our call the pot is already bigger, this becomes a very easy and very profitable call.


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stttNNN
Joined: 21.07.2010

thx for comments! :)


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