2 pair versus neat

Hi blumpkin

This is one huge post, holy !!!

The short answer is that I think you played this hand fine considering the board and information.

I doubt he'd check that river with AA even though it's a K. No real draws completed.

And he definitely bets his 2p and since it's a HU game and your range is limited he will most likely call them as well.

For these questions:

could you please type how much opponent should fold to our bets (in order to make it 0 in EV or close to it):
1\2 cbet, 2\3 cbet, 3\4 cbet
2nd barrel 1\2 (considering that we bet 1\2 on the flop and 2\3)
2nd barrel 2\3 (considering that we bet 1\2 on the flop and 2\3)

the same is for 3-bet:

how much we need to make our opp fold when raising 2bb raise to 6-7bb
and how much we need to get folds from cbet 8 into 14

how much we need to make our opp fold when raising 3bb raise to 9-10bb
and how much we need to get folds from cbet 12-13 into 20

I'll flip this back to you first so I get you working a bit (and I'll help along the way).

Take some examples like if you have done in the second part.

Take a pot and bet half in it, see what pot odds villain gets. Repeat for everything else (you don't even need actual examples but it helps).

at first glance I had negative reaction to your reply about pot odds, but I suddenly remembered that I would'nt get anything if I wouldn't do my best and would do it on my own. That's why I googled a little bit. and got that PO= (bet for call)/(pot after hero makes the call)*100 or
PO= (bet for call)/(bank before hero calls+hero call)*100

and after that everything is very easy

so for 1/2 cbet it would be (0,5)/(2)*100= 25%
2/3 cbet it would be (0,66)/(2,32)*100=28%
so for 3/4 cbet it would be (0,75)/(2,5)*100=30%
for pot bet 33,3% than

the same calcs for 3bet pots:

if hero 3-bets 2bb to 6 bb than PO would be (4)/(12)=33% and the bigger bet we make the more folds we need to get. the same thing is for cbets in 3-bet pots: calcs are same as for single raised pots.

mmm. now the question is:
if I wanna calculate folds on multiple streets than I need to multiply this percentages? I mean percentage of succesful 2 barrels/ 3 barrels.
If we bet pot pot pot than it would be 33%*33%*33% ? and in order to be profitable it should be succesful 3% of the time I guess I made wrong calcs here
for two barrels with 3\4 bet on flop and turn 30%*30%?

btw thanks for making me doing it on my own as it would be very useful for further MUCH MORE difficult calcs

I'm glad you were able to work it out without problems

The thing is, if I gave you the answers chances are you wouldn't bother to some yourself and maybe even memorize it. Like this you now have the tools to calculate any pot odds.

Keep in mind that while you play estimating is good as well and you don't have to be super exact.

Now for your numbers, the pot odds for 1/2 cbet is 25% and for full pot it's 33% (you have to call a full pot in two full pots). So everything else is in between and can be estimated (between 1/2 and full pot).

As far as the second question goes it's not quite that easy.

First, you want to calculate how often it needs to work not the pot odds.

So if you bet pot you are risking pot to win pot so essentially your bet has to work 50% of the time, then another 50% and so on. It now gets tricky because you almost always have some sort of equity so that 50% may actually be 40% or less.

So do you see where I'm going with this?

I understand that my hand would have some equity almost always, so when we bet pot on the flop it's not essentially means that our bet would only be profitable if opp would fold 50% of the time.

mmm, I tried to make PO equal to fold equity
I see the difference now. FE= bet/(bet+pot)

and now the question is: how to count the percentage of how many times 2 barrels and 3 barrels should be successful without taking EV of the hand into account?

btw if we bet every single flop 1/2 of the pot than opponent should call at least 75% (without taking into account that there would be any other bet on furhter streets)

You risk X to win Y.

So you need X / (X+Y) *100 FE (without accounting for equity in hand).

If you bet 1/2 pot the opponent should not call 75% of the time because you don't do it based on pot odds.

If you bet 1/2 pot your bet has to work 1 in 3 times or 33%. So villain has to call 67% or more (so not 75%) if he wanted to play "gto".

As far as your last question goes that's a lot more complicated and it depends on a lot especially since you almost never have 0 equity. There are tools such as Cardrunners EV that can help you build trees and shows you the exact equities.

Originally posted by blumpkin

I see the difference now. FE= bet/(bet+pot)

I would work with Cardrunners EV