JTs in BB vs BU raise

easiest flat in the world AINEC imo

never reraise with this hand from bb last to act

note: if this is turbo and villain is opening wide on BTN shove is fine imo, otherwise everything else then flat i s bad imo

Hi,

BU just have to fold so many better hands to your shove and JTs plays so well even if get called, so I like your shove.
Most players should b/f BU AJ/AT and definitely worse Jx, Tx hands.
Against his calling range you have 32% equity and likely 80% fold equity.
Hand Equity Wins Ties
JTs 32.50% 150,048,319 2,621,817
AQ, AK, 88-AA 67.50% 313,076,552 2,621,817

Seems easy shove to me against 45/27 player who would likely open 90% (if you have been tight then 100%)

If you call, you let him see free flop, he can outdraw you, he can barrel and make sometimes fold better hand and if you shove I doubt he is going to open next time light his BU.

best regards,

Hi all,

When evaluating the EV of a hand like this, you are comparing shove vs fold in your equity calculations. That is not very good. In order to mathematically solve a situation like this, we have to compare shove vs call, as call is VERY +EV. Here actually call is much better, however I haven't done the math (it's way too complicated anyway and depends too much on how everyone plays postflop).

Ok, lets do some math
EV calculation formula should be:
EV = (F% * P$) + (1 - F%) * ((W% * (P$ + S$)) - ((1 - W%) * S$))

P$ = Current size of the pot
S$ = Minimum of your stack vs your opponent's stack
F% = Chance of your opponent folding to your shove (this should be between 0 and 1; divide percentages by 100 to get corresponding value)
W% = Chance of you winning when called (this should be between 0 and 1; divide percentages by 100 to get corresponding value)

I assume, that BU opens 50% on the BU and unless he sees us as maniac he would likely call top 8,9% of hands (66-AA, AK-AJ, KQ)

So he folds 41,1% on hands which in 50% is around 82,2% (41,1/50) (F$). If he opens wider and/or call tighter then he folds even more % of hands.

Pot (P$) is 1410 (150+300+600+40*9)
We risk 6980 (S$)
our equity against 8,9% hands is 34,55%
Calculated EV is 859. I´m not sure out skill level is too much higher consider stacks sizes.
EV turns 0 if he is calling 80% of his opening hands, but that is never going to happen, so if you don´t want to play postlop+ build aggressive image then shove to me is the best move.
He just has to raise/fold so many better pre-flop hands; he would likely not steal next time every two hands and even if getting called we have likely 35-40% equity which is not bad spot to get 50bb stack

best regards,

No one is saying that u dont have + ev resteal shove

I'm saing that JTs is THE BEST HAND to play post flop and u r turning it into bluf when u shove

Hi all,

If someone is opening 50% and calling 9% vs our reshove, we should almost be shoving any hand better than and including a piece of toast and a uno card, provided he does not see us shoving a piece of toast and a uno card, and adjust his game accordingly.

Here's the proof:

0.09/0.5 of the time, we get called. Our equity in the pot is 0%, and we lose 6940 chips. EV = 0.09/0.5 * -6940 = -1249.2 chips.

1- (0.09/0.5) = 0.82 of the time, we get folds. We gain 810 + 600 chips (remember our BB is dead!). EV = 0.82 * 1410 = +1156.2 chips.

Total EV is -93 chips, or we lose 2 antes shoving piece of toast + uno card.

Now any time you have a conclusion that results in this, you should re-think your assumptions.

BTW please re-open thread if you have further questions!

Thanks for the explanations guys. In this spot i make standard 3bet to induce with the top of my range vs unknowns/fish, but if you prefer calling with JTs in this spot, what range would you overshove like that?

Originally posted by ronekinky
Thanks for the explanations guys. In this spot i make standard 3bet to induce with the top of my range vs unknowns/fish, but if you prefer calling with JTs in this spot, what range would you overshove like that?

hands that play bad post flop but have good showdown value like 22-77,Ax,Qxs,Kxs,98s JTo etc

@TheRebuz: in a vacuum I'm only reshoving 22-77 out of your hands, the rest is either a flat or a fold.

Kxs and Qxs are close for me. I flat most, but shoving is certainly fine.