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nl200 150bb deep vs river xr

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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $233 (116.5 bb)
UTG: $398.22 (199.1 bb)
MP: $182 (91 bb)
CO: $189.66 (94.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $339.54 (169.8 bb)
SB: $427.33 (213.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q K
UTG raises to $6, MP folds, CO calls $6, Hero calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($21) Q 8 3 (3 players)
UTG bets $14, CO folds, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $36, UTG calls $36

River: ($121) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $92, UTG raises to $342.22 and is all-in, Hero calls $191.54

Results:

Spoiler

$688.08 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: Q 8 3 Q 2
UTG showed 3 3 and won $685.08 ($345.54 net)
Hero showed Q K and lost (-$339.54 net)

CO big fish not important

UTG reg seems decent , 700 hands and playing 26/20,13 open utg, cbet 68/39 with bet on the river of 37 and fold to river bet of only 29

so my bet/calling range is def 33/88 but seems really small ,should i put KQs there too or maybe AQ? ( in this situation im prob 3betting AQ to iso the fish but KQs plays good ip )

I was playing pretty aggro at the table but not spewy..so fold or call?


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4 replies
eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

btw,if any nl200 regs could tell me in their experience if people are bluffing there , as far as i know people are just not bluffing enough but i'm pretty sick of folding all the freakin' time cuz they show the nuts


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Hi,

I could see myself bet/folding this. People on 1/2 don't really turn JJ-AA into a bluff here, so you only beat the few combos of 8x he's bluffing with. It's reasonable that villain would take this line for value with AQ+. I'd take a look at villain's wtsd and wwsf but mostly i think this is too value heavy line to call :)

Obviously, the better villain is, the more likely i'm to call.


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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

Yep,my thought exactly .

I was thinking about AA-JJ turning into a bluff here but i think they have enough showdown value vs my bluffing range that misses like combo draws or nut flush draws that those hands can check-call?

So he could have those in his x-calling range and x-bluff with 8x like you said and maybe even A3s ?

+ if he bluffs all 8x combos those could be like A8s ,89s and 78s so should be enough i guess.

And if we are in his shoes is a xc good with AA vs decent oponent with a bet on river of 30-35?


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

AA no heart looks like a fine hand to call with against this bet size. I wouldn't assume that everyone turns all 8x hands into a bluff or that everyone takes this line with 8x until river.


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