Outspan's road to 100NL

I haven't updated lately because I'm grinding

I'm playing mostly 4x and 6x and my level of focus has improved a lot. Last weekend's results @NL10:

I'm experimenting with overbetting paired turns and donking low connected flops, seems to work very well.

Lastly, this was yesterday's bustout hand on Stars' 10k freeroll:

Poker Stars, $0.01 Buy-in (25/50 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: 5,011 (100.2 bb)
BTN: 2,560 (51.2 bb)
SB: 875 (17.5 bb)
BB: 1,980 (39.6 bb)
UTG+1: 2,590 (51.8 bb)
UTG+2: 1,735 (34.7 bb)
MP1: 2,425 (48.5 bb)
Hero (MP2): 2,485 (49.7 bb)
MP3: 974 (19.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A J
2 folds, MP1 calls 50, Hero raises to 200, 4 folds, BB calls 150, MP1 calls 150

Flop: (625) J 6 6 (3 players)
BB bets 150, MP1 calls 150, Hero raises to 500, BB folds, MP1 raises to 2,225 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,725

Turn: (5,225) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (5,225) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

That's why I don't play MTTs ♦

Tilt handling is going much much better. Especially if I meditate right before a session

I'll resume updating this blog more often when I'm not grinding!

How long sessions you played during those 7k hands?

Originally posted by ilioas
How long sessions you played during those 7k hands?

About 2 hours

Last session I ran "alright" ♦

More importantly, I keep taking better decisions and I'm less stressed in spots that used to be fastidious. Now that I'm calmer I can take better decisions.

One of the things I'm working on is building popups that only contain synthetic, usable and relevant information.

Since single raised pots are the most common spots postflop, I built 2 popups on SRPs, IP and OOP, and differentiating for when hero is the preflop aggressor and when he isn't. That way finding the right info quickly is a lot easier.

Popup SRP IP:

Popup SRP OOP:

For instance, as a bluff I can float twice both IP and OOP, and then bet river.

What would you do to maximize value instead? I guess x/raise flop, bet turn and shove river. He looks like someone who loses a lot at showdown. With this popup it becomes a lot easier to figure out what to do. Before I created it, I had no idea this guy folded so ridiculously much on the river.

The next step in making better popups could be to differentiate stats for when I want to maximize fold equity and when I want to maximize value! And since I generally know which one I want already on the flop, I can probably create 4 popups in all:

Single raised pots IP, stats to maximize FE
Single raised pots IP, stats to maximize value
Single raised pots OOP, stats to maximize FE
Single raised pots OOP, stats to maximize value

Will get to it when I have time, for now I'm getting used to these two

Even though I'm in the middle of a good run, I was pissed that even though I know one of my big leaks is I don't 3bet enough for thin value, I still haven't managed to increase my range.

I was even avoiding tables with LAGs because I just didn't know which ranges to 3bet for value.

So I've changed my Stars theme to something easier on the eyes, and added 3bet and f3b by position to the hud:

VPIP PFR | 3B F3B | 4B-RANGE F4B | SQ FoldToSQAsRaiser
RFI UTG...SB | FTS-SBvsBU FTS-BBvsBU FTS-BBvsSB | FoldToSQAsCaller
F3B UTG...SB | CBET Fold-CBET Raise-CBET CBET-fold
3B MP...BB | CBET-T Fold-CBET-T | BetRiver FoldvsBetRiver
BET-IP BET-OOP | LIMP-CALL FoldFlopVsDonk | AG% F/T/R | WTSD H

The HUD looks so much better now, I used to have "/" as a separator and it was really ugly. Now it's great. I could even add one more line thanks to the better spacing in this theme.

I sat on 4 tables with LAGs both to my left and to my right and my 3bet was 9 (it used to be 5.5). It wasn't sample size either, I really did 3bet a lot more, and printed money.

It would be great if you could hover on the stats and see the sample size eg for fold to 3bet in a specific position... unfortunately I don't seem to be able to with HEM2.

Next, to better understand when I can 3bet for thin value, I'll memorize the ranges of 1%, 2%... up to 10%, and their equity vs different hands. I want to be able to recall this instantly whenever I need it. I think it's very important.

A few thoughts on shoving

Value shove

Typical case: I'm on the turn as the aggressor and I have a PSB behind. When can I shove for value?

Two steps:

Estimte calling range vs PSB
I'm investing 1x pot to win 2x pot (current pot + his call) so I need 33% equity vs his calling range.

More in general, the required equity for a value shove or thin value shove against a given calling range is a function of SPR, and more precisely given by

y = x/(2x + 1)

(x = SPR, y = equity required vs calling range)

Bluff shove

Bluffing 1/2 pot villain has to fold 1 in 3 times. Bluffing pot, 1 in 2 times. More in general, the fold equity (y) is a function of SPR (x):

y = x/(1 + x)

(x = SPR, y = fold equity required)

Shove as a semibluff on the turn

We have both equity and fold equity. The formula is the sum of the two:

y + y' = x/(2x + 1) + x'/(1 + x'), that is

eq + fe = eq/(2*eq + 1) + fe/(1 + fe)

The equity required vs a calling range is:

eq = eq/(2*eq + 1) + fe/(1 + fe) - fe

+EV shove graphs

Here are the +EV shove graphs given a certain FE and SPR. The graphs must be used in the following way:

Estimate equity vs villain's calling range
Estimate FE in the specific spot
Calculate the SPR
Find the right graph (based on FE) and the right X (that is the SPR).
If the equity vs calling range that you estimated is > Y, it's a +EV shove.

10% FE:

(x = SPR, y = equity required vs calling range)

20% FE:

(x = SPR, y = equity required vs calling range)

30% FE:

(x = SPR, y = equity required vs calling range)

40% FE:

(x = SPR, y = equity required vs calling range)

50% FE:

(x = SPR, y = equity required vs calling range)

60% FE:

(x = SPR, y = equity required vs calling range)

How to NOT use the +EV shove graphs

The graphs must be used by FIRST estimating equity and fold equity vs calling range, THEN looking at the X->Y in the correct graph! Don't look at the graph thinking you have the same FE with a 1/5 pot or 2x pot shove!

In the last couple of graphs, a significant part is in the negative. This means that for the given FE vs that specific SPR, you can shove even with no equity. BUT you must have first estimated that you have that sort of fold equity with such a small SPR, which is uncommon.