[Closed] It's On You: guess hero's play by 28/02 and win $50

Omg that call in last hand That IS tight-fish's value-line ♦

So here it's obvious we have the best hand, just matter of getting max out of it. Check-raise or donk-raise. Or donk-shove ♦ Villain will always bet this river, so I go for check-raise, making it big since he our line looks fishy to him and he will call us if he actually has an ace.

Edit. I'll edit the amount of our bet too, since it can get me more points ♦

Villain will vb his Ace 50$, pot is now 125$ hero has 497$ behind and villain 402$. Hero raises to 170$.

I think you should check/raise.

What is villain his range on the river after a check behind on the turn. I think he might have a pairs and TT and JJ Also have Ax and alot of random 3bet bluf hands.

You have four options: donking, check/raising, check/calling and check/folding.

Check/calling and check/folding are really bad because our hand is very underrepped and we are almost never beat here. He would have bet the turn with AA and 54 is really unlikely.

Donking:
When you donk you won't get alot of value from pairs. There are not alot of missed draws on this board. You won't call JT or 67 that often OOP. The only instance when you bet is when you make a made hand (pair or so) into a bluf. Don't think you would do this often on this board because villain has alot of Ax hands in his range. So when you bet pairs and TT and JJ are alot of the time beat.

When you donk you will get value from Ax. I think alot of the time Ax with rag kicker will call but would not bet on his own. Maybe A-rag will make a smallish bet to let smaller pairs call.

Blufs would fold obv.

Check/raising:
All smaller made pairs will check behind but you wouldn't get any value from them either way.

AK, AQ (AJ) will bet for value I think. But they would also call a bet when you donked. The main advantage is now that you can raise. So maybe you get some more value from AQ, AK.

A-rag will sometimes check behind and sometimes bet smallish.

Bluffs. This is a good card to bluf on this board with previous action. So I think he would try to take a stab here.

Also he can have A9, A8 and A3. So there you definitly would get alot more value when you check/raise.

So overal I think check/raise is better. when you sum it up:

Donking: probably more value from Ace-rag type of hands
Check/raising: more value from blufs, maybe AK/AQ and A9, A8 and A3.

Check/raising is the better option.

We have the best hand here so question is how to get maximum value. I think c/r river is the best line since he often will bluff his air repping the A and if hes got the A he is for sure betting it. By checking the river we risk a check back from smaller pocket pairs like 22-55 if he elects to 3b them pf as a bluff, but I think that is a minor part of his range compared to A high that he checks back on the turn and random bluffs that he might pull of on the river.

Donk/3bet as villain may check behind Ax as he has showdown value. Villain may also raise as bluff if he chooses to continue bluffing or he thinks we may be betting on a scare card and thus tries to bluff us off our hand.

Ok, since we are on the top of our range, and, by the board presented, only very specific hands beat us.

Namely, AA and 54.

AA doesn't make sense in villains' range, since with this holding it would be reasonable that he would have bet turn.

54 is reasonable to an aggro villain 3-bet in position, but, in this case, I think he would have double barreled at turn, with his OESD.

So, very likely we are ahead. Let's split our options:

Leading river (donk bet)

By leading on the river, we'll only get called from Ax hands and some middle pairs (44-77). Those hands, however, represent just a small part of his range.

Check/raising river

By check/raising on the river, we give villain the opportunitty to try to steal the pot with a lot of his air.

Since he is aggro, it's very likely that lots of his 3-betting range pre (suited connectors and broadways) missed the board.

Thus, the majority of his range fits in this last option, what makes check/raising the best choice here IMO.

Amount:

There is $75 in the pot. As a steal, I guess villain would try to bet on the bigger side, in order to get us out of it. I think $40-45 would be the amount he would bet.

Then, a check-raise of most $90-100 would be the case, if he calls (not that likely).

CHECK/RAISE

A is a scarecard, if we bet he will fold some worse hands he would try to rep Aces with aggainst a check.

once he bet we can raise, to get value if in fact he has an Ace

Looks like villan just hit an Ace, so although check/raising is possible, as its the river I'd overbet the pot a little here to try and get a nice sized call. We represented relative weakness post flop, so I think we can get away with making it look like a stupid river bet like last hand.

BET $100, and allin if reraised.

It's ZOOM, no point thinking he's going to merge his range here and push you off your hand. You played passively, so bet 45-50 for value on the river. If he calls, you're good, if he raises, call anyway.

Raise $50-60 for value and hope that he got Ace

Hero should reraise at 210$.
Considering that BTN is a solid regular that 3bets from position his range is from AT(suited)-AK or big pairs from TT-AA.
Having AA and checking on the turn it is not a sign of a regular player especially where is a draw for straight on the flop (9-8-3). JT would be a possible hand for Hero.
So i think that the Hero should reraise to find out the real strenght of the hand of the BTN. I think he has AQ-AK.
♠_o: ♠_o:

AA's would have kept value betting on all streets, so we can rule that out of his range. There are more combinations of Ax than pocket pairs here.
Wouldn't bluffs continue to barrel on the turn? Even on that board, just to build the pot to bluff-catch the river?
Also, that's quite a bad board to C-bet on the flop. Pretty much any TP is going to call, as well as all over pairs and over cards. So to call his 3-bet OOP with the intention of bluffing an Ace high river makes no sense, knowing that hero's range mainly includes an Ace here. Thus i don't think the villain is ever going to bluff here unless they just do something really stupid.

Ax hands would value bet. But will villain raise if bet into with an Ace. If villain just has an Ace then he's betting and maybe calling a raise, but would find it difficult i think. If villain had 2 pair then hero would be raised if lead into. Bluffs would just fold.

Bet $55, if villain raises then call.

raise bit over half pot, and call any reraises, there is only one set which we lose to(AA) and 45 which is unlikely for the reg to have in this spot.

I would bet 30$ and i represent bluff and my oponent woulds 3bet.

Raise to about 200

the only hands that can beat the opponent here are 54 and AA,

It looks like Ax is a tonne of Villains range, so If we x/r we get some value from these and bluffs too.

I'd guess Villain would barrel AK or x/behind on the flop often. Also I think AQ would often get checked behind on the flop.

So that leaves mostly some crappy ATo type or low suited aces and probably some suited 8x stuff that was in Villains preflop bluffing range, like q8s, j8s, k8s. I guess we could give him a couple of combos of the nuts, 54s too.

What size to raise? Er I'm going to go with villain dependent, but clicking it back (raise/calling) would getting value from all Ax looks. Which looks ok to me.

Check-Shove

CHECK-Raise

Check/Raise
It depends on how much he likes to bet the river, but still i would check.
If he bets, we shove for value. I think the bet is out of question because we will scare off his bluffs, and he will only call with the Ace.
This way you can extract the most value possible.

I would lead out with a bet of $60.
If I got raised then I would 3-bet. If he has 4-5 so be it. I can't see him having pocket AA here but 4-5 could be a possibility though remote.