Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
BTN: $226.41 (226.4 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $121.11 (121.1 bb)
UTG: $107.22 (107.2 bb)
MP: $120.53 (120.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $154.02 (154 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q
A
UTG folds, MP raises to $3, Hero calls $3, BTN folds, SB raises to $13, BB folds, MP raises to $26, Hero raises to $135, SB folds
When I played the hand I felt that a shove would be +ev due to the fact that MP was 4b way too much and SB was an ok reg who could lay down a hand as strong as AK. I need some help with calculating the EV of my shove.
I have the following information:
I know that SB squeezes in that spot with a 3% frequency over the last 10k hands and has folded 1/1 times to a re raise
MP seems like a reg with 22/21/11 over 700 hands and has 38% fold to 3bet and 30% 4bet.
Assumptions:
SB will only call with AA/KK, 0.9/3 = 30% of the time
MP 4bets with a 6% range and only calls with AA/KK (0.9%) 15% of the time
vs KK+ we have 21% equity
My calculation which is def wrong is the following:
EVfold = 151bb
EVpush = (% they both fold)*(dead money + my stack) + (probability SB calls)*(size of pot*equity + difference in stack sizes) + (probability MP calls)*(size of pot*equity + difference in stack sizes)
=(0.85*0.70)*(40+150)+(1-(0.70))*(230bb *21%+50)+(1-(0.85))*(255bb *21%+35) =115bb+30bb+12bb=157
EVdiff = +6bb
