100NL c/r bet shove /Standard?

After he called on the turn, I wouldn't bet the river. He should fold 1 pair type hands on the turn, you block turned 2 pairs, that he might call with, so his river range is mostly Tx, and flushdraws, so no reason to bet, rather check/call or check/fold.

His 33% CO opening range can contain Tx hands: TT, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T7s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o 77 combos (if he cbet/3bet Txdd, then only 71 Tx combos left)
And flushdraws: AJs+, A5s-A2s, KJs+, QJs 40 combos that he can bluff with (28 combos, if he checks behind with Jxdd or if he 3bets them on the flop)

If the above assumtions are correct, you have a break even check/call when 28% pot odds offered (2/3 pot size bet). If he bets bigger (shoves), then you should fold. Considering the rake, and if he is more passive (don't always bluffs), then it's a check/fold on the river.

I'd guess he can probably get to the river with some JT and KT? If he didn't then it looks like you could bet pretty much anything and he'd fold everything.

Lets say he raises half of these hands on the turn and still has about 10 straight combos on the river.

We could probably find some better hands to bluff with than 8:d 6:d which only blocks quite a few of his missed 8:d flushdraw/gutshots he probably floated with. KQ perhaps.

Is to optimistic to say that villain has FD's,two pairs or sets on his calling turn range?(basically Hero bets pretty big OTT)

Do you think he is calling down those after call this turn???I mean two pairs or sets.

How can he have sets ? Easy 3bet on the flop. Same with 2 pairs, also, you block turned 2 pairs.

Originally posted by DarkAwi
How can he have sets ? Easy 3bet on the flop. Same with 2 pairs, also, you block turned 2 pairs.

Are u 100% percent sure that Villain will 3b IP sets and two pairs???
I am not that sure + I think a weak player can't fold them OTT,my plan was to 3 barell any runout,not sure if river is paired

c/c turn... donkshove on flush card and on card which pairs the board. Play sets the same way.

I dont know if I´d like to have huge betting range on this turn. Should I? Mby coach will help.

.........

Villain has to have a lot of SDV/EQ to call on the turn.
On the river it's unlikely he'll fold sets which I definitely see in his range. He might fold 2P, but perhaps not all of them/not every time. There isn't much left in his turn call range besides OP's, but I don't think many players get to the river with that.
I think giving up is best. It's rare that someone stays stubborn on such a scary turn card and then suddenly changes his mind and folds, especially when there are FD's out there that he should see in your range.
If you know villain is a station who gets to the river too often and then folds, you should definitely consider bluffing a ton here with a 2/3 bet. Against such players I wouldn't bet the turn so big though.

You might consider bluffing some hands that contain blockers to villains whole SDV range, like JQ or Q9 without diamonds (though I doubt that you have this in your ch/r, bet big range).

If I would be villian, I would have sets and two pairs on flop (I usually call flop and raise blank turn), so I would call river with those hands and would also
call river for sure, because I expect you as agressive reg to not have so many Tx. At least imo, you have enough busted fd comparing to Tx so that villian can make a call.

I think raising too many Tx doesnt make much sense on board where we cant expect much FE and have 3 clean outs.

THx!!!

Hey guys,

Since you specifically asked for post flop analysis, I'll start with that. C/r flop is fine, imo your size is a bit to small but not terrible. I'd check this turn since I don't think I want to bet any draws with sd-value on this turn because my value range is so narrow. The plan is to turn a pair into bluff on some rivers, you guys are smart enough to figure out a rough game plan for the river if the turn goes chk-chk or c-bet-c.

Now to the big mistake: preflop!!!! Sure this guy doesn't fold much against 3bets, but 46% isn't exactly little either. More importantly this dude is folding to >90% of cbets! Hence, I would have a very narrow flatting range and 3bet more or less everything, including 86s. After 3betting I'd cbet the majority of my range for obvious reasons. Imo, this hand is way higher ev as a 3bet than a call.