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Last Post by TJtheTJ 12 years ago
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Frodrick8
Frodrick8
Joined: 29.07.2013
Posts: 8
23.05.2014, 17:04

In a sticky situation. Wondering what everyone would do in this spot.

Before the Barca v Atletico match I bet £15 on atletico to win both la liga and the champions league at 15/4.

So, now, if Atletico win against Real I will get a return of £71.25 (£56.25 + my original stake). If I bet £49 on Real to lift the trophy at 9/20, I will guarentee myself a £71 return, £7 overall profit and I can just enjoy the game without caring who wins. Boring yeah?

So, do I leave it and hope Atletico win, or completely change my mind and bet £71 on real to win? Either way its a bet to nothing, I either win £71 if I bet on Atletico and win nothing if the lose. Or I bet £71 on Real and get £102 if they win, or £71 if they lose.

(Took the last paragraph that was here out, think it was incorrect.)

(This is outright btw, not to win in 90 minutes)


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jonnyjm
jonnyjm
Joined: 24.03.2008
Posts: 449
23.05.2014, 17:51

Why don't you just bet £50 on R.Madrid? This way you lock a profit.

£50 @ 9/20 = £22.50 profit - £15 stake on A.Madrid = £7.50 profit

A.Madrid double = £56.25 profit - £50 R.Madrid stake = £6.25 profit

You'd be pissed though if you did that and A.Madrid won, as it's just a £15 bet just let it ride. What are you going to do with £7.50 or £6.25? Unlikely nothing other than a couple of beers. What would you do with £56.25 or nothing? A decent day out or nothing.

The real question is do you think A.Madrid will win the final 1 in 4 times or better? (-£15-£15-£15= -£45 + £56.25 = £11.25). If so you should just let the bet ride as the EV is higher (just had to fit some poker in somewhere) :)

The more i write, the more i think you should just leave the bet, this way you also get more excitement out of the final.


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Frodrick8
Frodrick8
Joined: 29.07.2013
Posts: 8
23.05.2014, 20:45

Agree with you on the EV point, although the same would be true if I changed my mind and went for Real, I'd effectively be getting 2-1 odds on them to win. From an EV point of view, any decision I make is +EV.


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MJPerry
MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011
Posts: 4,867
24.05.2014, 22:22


FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK


:spade: :heart: :diamond: :club:The Artist Formerly Known as PokerStrategy.com's Online Editor :club: :diamond: :heart: :spade:
This is my blog. Good, innit?

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mesisification
mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011
Posts: 527
24.05.2014, 22:27

Made a bet for atletico. Real scores 1-1 goal at last minutes, missed 105e. :(


@SamuPatronen on twitter

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UPAY4DINNER
UPAY4DINNER
Joined: 28.09.2009
Posts: 22,746
24.05.2014, 22:28

Originally posted by MJPerry

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK


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MJPerry
MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011
Posts: 4,867
24.05.2014, 23:38

Originally posted by mesisification
Made a bet for atletico. Real scores 1-1 goal at last minutes, missed 105e. :(

Same for me but €300.


:spade: :heart: :diamond: :club:The Artist Formerly Known as PokerStrategy.com's Online Editor :club: :diamond: :heart: :spade:
This is my blog. Good, innit?

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Frodrick8
Frodrick8
Joined: 29.07.2013
Posts: 8
25.05.2014, 14:27

I kept my money on Atletico... so close.


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FFRRAANNKKIIEE
FFRRAANNKKIIEE
Joined: 30.12.2010
Posts: 3,106
25.05.2014, 21:10

calm down guys, Real just wanted to make the game more interesting :)

Spoiler


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TJtheTJ
TJtheTJ
Joined: 12.10.2011
Posts: 6,581
26.05.2014, 08:12

Originally posted by FFRRAANNKKIIEE
calm down guys, Real just wanted to make the game more interesting :)

Spoiler

:rage:


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