88 2nd set vs raise deep

Hey GingerKid,

Preflop fine.

Flop cbet for value is fine. Calling vs flop raise is fine, texture is not overly drawy.

Turn raise size is likely ok due to being deep. Opponent may likely feel he has the implieds to continue with FD's this deep.

I agree that we have the effective nuts here. A small bet may still have a higher EV if it gets paid off more frequently - and yeah I definitely think people are capable of folding a set here.

So, this line is clearly +EV. Whether it's the highest EV depends on villain. Being results oriented about it, the fact that he calls river with K3 suggests hand is played in the highest EV way vs this specific opponent.

Originally posted by w34z3l
A small bet may still have a higher EV if it gets paid off more frequently - and yeah I definitely think people are capable of folding a set here.

So, this line is clearly +EV. Whether it's the highest EV depends on villain. Being results oriented about it, the fact that he calls river with K3 suggests hand is played in the highest EV way vs this specific opponent.

Yeah, I think that most of the regs are capable of folding set so deep. Would it make sense vs such regs to play this way with low fd? Or maybe 8x blocker (but I dont cbet it).

Originally posted by GingerKid
Yeah, I think that most of the regs are capable of folding set so deep. Would it make sense vs such regs to play this way with low fd? Or maybe 8x blocker (but I dont cbet it).

Yeah, potentially it could be a decent line. In terms of GTO the deeper our stacks the more bluffs we can have for each value hand in our range. So when overbetting river it's ok to have way more bluffs than we would frequently.

In reality though a lot of guys just end up tightening up when they are deep since they are scared to lose a few stacks in one hand, but GTO says they should do the opposite.

Originally posted by w34z3l
Hey GingerKid,

Preflop fine.

Flop cbet for value is fine. Calling vs flop raise is fine, texture is not overly drawy.

Turn raise size is likely ok due to being deep. Opponent may likely feel he has the implieds to continue with FD's this deep.

I agree that we have the effective nuts here. A small bet may still have a higher EV if it gets paid off more frequently - and yeah I definitely think people are capable of folding a set here.

So, this line is clearly +EV. Whether it's the highest EV depends on villain. Being results oriented about it, the fact that he calls river with K3 suggests hand is played in the highest EV way vs this specific opponent.

Hi

As for a smaller size, how small should we go?

Thank you.

.

Originally posted by eSKavuS
Hi

As for a smaller size, how small should we go?

Thank you.

.

Perhaps half-pot.

It's not really possible to be that specific without understanding opponents tendencies. As mentioned if this guy is calling with 2 pair combos I would totally just overbet-shove river also.

Essentially we make the most money where $x * F% gives us the highest output where $x is the size of our value bet and F% is the frequency with which it gets paid.

So we'd rather get a half pot bet paid off 50% of the time than an overbet shove paid off 10% of the time.

Yeah, but i think that half pot looks the same strong as overbet. For me actually half pot looks as 100% value hand, which is afraid that villian will fold to bigger size, and shove looks to me as maybe bluff which wants max FE. So as you said it is villian specific and EV is kind of totally unknown imo, and since i am greedy i go all in