http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability
0.00139% X 0.0240% = 0.00003336%?
1 every 333 million times
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Originally posted by mbml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability0.00139% X 0.0240% = 0.00003336%?
1 every 333 million times
You need to put some volume in now ♦
Originally posted by mbml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability0.00139% X 0.0240% = 0.00003336%?
1 every 333 million times
You used the 5 cards-poker frequencies instead of the 7-cards 
Hello mbml,
I am considering buying your course, but in the graphs you posted on your page all limits are mixed...
Could you give us some graphs seperated for Zoom200 / 500 / 1k? Including EV?! Best would be (if there is enough sample, say >25k hands for each limit) if it would be also divided last year & this year... (that would be 6 graphs in summary)
Very nice CREV video.
On the turn you said you would like 80% equity to barrel. On the flop you are said you were ok with raising AT, AJ some of the time. I used slightly different preflop ranges when I followed along, but AT, AJ only have about 65-70% equity verse SB's flop betting range and are pretty horrible against SB's continuing range. What's the cutoff for how strong something is to raise on the flop? I just checked Janda's book and going by his 'required felting' theory, this seems quite a bit too weak?
I tried on the turn, including barreling gutshots and then x/f them. With ranges I used, I didn't really need them at all to bluff with. X/f them was better for my ranges. BTN has so many Ax that call turn barrels that it lost money for SB to barrel them.
Originally posted by Kooort
Hello mbml,I am considering buying your course, but in the graphs you posted on your page all limits are mixed...
Could you give us some graphs seperated for Zoom200 / 500 / 1k? Including EV?! Best would be (if there is enough sample, say >25k hands for each limit) if it would be also divided last year & this year... (that would be 6 graphs in summary)
Last year:
1k: 54k
500: 48k
400 Eur: 8k
200: 20k
This year:
I'm going through the worst downswing in my life atm, playing very little/tilty. I'm confident I'll recover but conditions for me to play atm are terrible due to some family stuff - May move out at the end of the year which should be great for my game.
Originally posted by Swish29
Originally posted by mbml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability0.00139% X 0.0240% = 0.00003336%?
1 every 333 million timesYou used the 5 cards-poker frequencies instead of the 7-cards
yea, i Don't know how to calculate the 7 card frequency, but it's probably going to be 1 every 20 million or so if I had to pluck out a random guess
Originally posted by jules97
Very nice CREV video.On the turn you said you would like 80% equity to barrel. On the flop you are said you were ok with raising AT, AJ some of the time. I used slightly different preflop ranges when I followed along, but AT, AJ only have about 65-70% equity verse SB's flop betting range and are pretty horrible against SB's continuing range. What's the cutoff for how strong something is to raise on the flop? I just checked Janda's book and going by his 'required felting' theory, this seems quite a bit too weak?
I tried on the turn, including barreling gutshots and then x/f them. With ranges I used, I didn't really need them at all to bluff with. X/f them was better for my ranges. BTN has so many Ax that call turn barrels that it lost money for SB to barrel them.
@all: BTW jules is referring to an exclusive video only available to subscribers of my e-mail list
if you checked some of his CR vids he actually suggested something similar. We are not thrilled when we get it in, it serves mostly to balance our air range.
Required Equity edge to bet/raise is also dependent on our raise size. In the case of a min-raise, if opponent bets 8 into 16, and we raise to 17, that's a <20% pot size raise.
Originally posted by mbml
Originally posted by Swish29
Originally posted by mbml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability0.00139% X 0.0240% = 0.00003336%?
1 every 333 million timesYou used the 5 cards-poker frequencies instead of the 7-cards
yea, i Don't know how to calculate the 7 card frequency, but it's probably going to be 1 every 20 million or so if I had to pluck out a random guess
7-cards frequency is below in the list
hmm it says that royal flushes come once out of every 30k hands which is a little hard to believe, considering the fact that I don't think I ever had more than 10 royal flushes so far.
But then again, we don't get to see the flop most of the time, let alone the river. Which makes the actual probability very complicated.
If let's say I play 25% vpip and I get to see the flop 80% of the time, I would get to the flop with 20% of starting hands. 10% of starting hands get to the Turn, and 5% of starting hands get to the River.
5% of the time I see all 7 cards
5% of the time I see 6 cards
10% of the time, I get to see 5 cards
Hmm im not very sure how to calculate the rest now.
Originally posted by mbml
hmm it says that royal flushes come once out of every 30k hands which is a little hard to believe, considering the fact that I don't think I ever had more than 10 royal flushes so far.But then again, we don't get to see the flop most of the time, let alone the river. Which makes the actual probability very complicated.
I wonder if preflop hand selections affects the likelihood of seeing royal flush. When you have suited broadway, or any broadway at all, obviously you're more likely to make a royal flush. But it is skewed by preflop action. Imagine, it's like natural selection: offsuited broadway pairs (TT+) are more likely to see the flop than suited broadway hands (ATs+, KTs+, etc.), which are more likely to see the flop than unsuited unpaired broadway hands (ATo+, KTo+, etc.), which are more likely to see the flop than single broadway hands (A2-A9, K2-K9, etc.) or no broadway hands (e.g. 64, 72). So overall, the boards you see almost always have at least one (and often two) cards for the royal flush held by some player.
I'm pretty sure 1 in 30k refers to just drawing 7 cards, without any preflop selection of the first two cards. It would be much easier to estimate empirically: just scan a few databases for royal flushes and take the mean frequency, it would include all these complicated preflop and postflop biases.
Originally posted by mbml
New video - No annoying sounds this time
video is private
I have been extremely unproductive for the entire year, mostly due to the lack of motivation from running bad and my house being noisy like a zoo. July has been a pretty nice recovery month so I hope I can continue with my momentum.
My friend has a place in Amsterdam since he's going to be working overseas for a while and I'm gonna live with him for 2 months to give myself a good change of environment. (5th Aug - 1 Oct)
Goals
350 000 VPPs
1-2 hours/day of study/review
Make 80k (including RB)
Survive without playing computer games
*I shall not install any time-wasting games like Dota 2 on my laptop. I installed it ~1 year ago and I clocked in 1200 hours, which is the amount of poker I played in 2013.
Current VPP progress: 335 000 (last year I was at 300 000)
I bought a Lenovo IdeaPad 15.6" Z50 for 1400 SGD and a Samsung 23" monitor for 200 SGD. So far the laptop seems great, but windows 8 is pretty tilting.
Good luck and enjoy the change of setting, I can imagine it can only be a positive move.
And yes, Windows 8 is very tilting indeed.
I hated windows 8 at first but now I'm used to it I much prefer it.
GL in Amsterdam. Do you plan on visiting many places while you're in Europe or just grinding?
Originally posted by holmeboy
I hated windows 8 at first but now I'm used to it I much prefer it.GL in Amsterdam. Do you plan on visiting many places while you're in Europe or just grinding?
I doubt I can do much travelling given my goals. Maybe I might take a weekend trip or two to a nearby place if my friend is up for it.
Amsterdam 
Which part of Amsterdam?
Je kan pas van je fouten leren als je weet wat je fouten zijn en je openstaat voor feedback!
Originally posted by martijnde666
Amsterdam
Which part of Amsterdam?
im not too sure as of now, I know that the house has a view of the river/canal