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QJ on Q94, A, 4

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ronekinky
Joined: 25.04.2008

Fold river? Villain unknown onetabler.

PokerStars - $8+$0.80|75/150 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 3,568 (VPIP: 35.48, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 31)
MP+1: 6,035 (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 21)
MP+2: 4,518 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 2,852 (VPIP: 23.73, PFR: 14.04, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 59)
BTN: 4,422 (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 21)
SB: 10,123 (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (BB): 5,661
UTG: 2,170 (VPIP: 10.53, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
UTG+1: 5,224 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 21)

9 players post ante of 20, SB posts SB 75, Hero posts BB 150

Pre Flop: (pot: 405) Hero has J♠ Q♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 300, fold, Hero calls 150

Flop: (855, 2 players) 4♣ Q♠ 9♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 450, Hero calls 450

Turn: (1,755, 2 players) A♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 900, Hero calls 900

River: (3,555, 2 players) 4♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 2,752 and is all-in, fold,


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4 replies

Hi,

Likely c/c river is a little better than c/f, since you usually doesn´t have there hands which you can calldown, so he should shove all his missed draws or complete air.
You should be ahead there 30% and since these situations imo don´t come very often (would not expect player to shove there KK or weak Ax hands), then you´re most likely either against AT+ or air.

best regards,


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ronekinky
Joined: 25.04.2008

Thanks for the reply. But does a guy who is playing one 8$ table shove river with busted draws often enough here really?


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onetwo78
Joined: 06.07.2010

I would call also, although I would not care about my range otr vs an unknown onetabler.
I would care only with my odds on the river, If I do not calculate only some FD and KT, JT hand in his bluffrange, we have enough odds:

Asztal: 4♣Q♠9♠ A♦ 4♦
       Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
MP2        68.00%  68.00%     0.00% { AA, QQ, 99, 44, A9s+, A4s, KTs, Q9s, Q4s, JTs, Js8s, Ts8s, Js7s, Ts7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, A9o+, A4o, KTo, Q9o, JTo }
MP3        32.00%  32.00%     0.00% { QhJs }


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chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Hi all,

I am making an exploitable fold here vs a 3 barrel from a one tabling player (generally a fish). He should have flushdraws here, but you will see them checking back very often with missed draws (which makes our turn call so good). So when he does shove, you must discount the missed draws very often!


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