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AJ vs raise

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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

partypoker - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 90.36 BB (VPIP: 32.76, PFR: 17.82, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 178)
Hero (SB): 186.12 BB
BB: 196.97 BB (VPIP: 29.39, PFR: 14.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 231)
UTG: 152.3 BB (VPIP: 24.36, PFR: 20.45, 3Bet Preflop: 11.25, Hands: 1,368)
MP: 69.88 BB (VPIP: 58.54, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 1.80, Hands: 209)
CO: 106.35 BB (VPIP: 26.17, PFR: 19.28, 3Bet Preflop: 8.27, Hands: 1,813)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♠ A♣

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, MP calls 3 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 2 players) 7♣ A♥ 8♥
Hero bets 7 BB, MP raises to 14 BB, fold

Spoiler

MP wins 28.85 BB

raise flop 8%. Until what % you consider raise cbet value heavy? I usually fold vs raise if it is < 12%.

It is interesting that his AF is 4 and AFq 60%. I usually dont use those stats, I dont see for what I can use it? I know that AFq and AF are measures for how much somebody is agressive, but if those stats are having enouge sample size, then also cbet % and raise cbet stats are also having enough sample and are more informative. So I only use bet % and raise % as measure of agressivness.


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6 replies
Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey GingerKid,

Preflop iso-raise is good.

Flop cbet for value is good.

Vs flop min-raise I would never fold top pair. Keep in mind we can't purely look at the value of raise-cbet. This guy seems pretty loose preflop so 7% is representative of a wider range, whereas 12% from a set-miner = the nuts.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

yeah thats right, thanks for pointing that out. What raise cbet % is borderline for making somebody value heavy, for reg?


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Hackett77
Joined: 02.02.2009

I did some work on this a long time ago. It worked out something like

0-8% - Sets, 2pair+

8-12% Also good draws, few semi bluffs

12-15% As above, more bluffs, semibluffs

18%+ Very bluffy, may also raise just top pair. Can stack off light vs these guys on wet boards.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

if 8% is only strong combos, then on flop 24% would be balanced raise range. It looks too much. When I analize hands offline, I usually have 15% raise range, where 5% is strong and 10% is bluffs.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

18%+ Very bluffy, may also raise just top pair. Can stack off light vs these guys on wet boards.

What do you mean by stacking off ligth? Turning made hands into bluff, and expecting it to be +EV because you will have enough FE? or you think villian will raise/stack off with his bluff?


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

For average reg <10% is considered pretty tight, maybe 15-18% balanced by the time we get to 24%+ weighted towards bluffs in many cases.

Couple of things to keep in mind - Just because we generally connect with flop well 10% of the time or so doesn't mean we will raise 10% on all textures (we will slow play on dry textures which brings average raising range of nuts down). Also that 100bb deep balanced flop x/r range is generally considered to be twice the amount of bluffs as value hands which wouldn't be the case with differing stack sizes.


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