turn set AA in bluff?

i'd bet turn about 23 and ship every river

YEEES, do it! ♦

Regards,

Skod

Shouldn't we think about how villain perceives the weight of our range? We're clearly demonstrating a ton of strength on the flop, it narrows our range down to the best draws and sets, of which we mostly have sets. Fish and POW will pay anyway, but now even scared players will think twice before folding, even if we bet about 5/6. Also, villains range clearly consists of many flushes.

I would refrain from bluffing here.

Hi,

i always take the blocker bluff here. Villain obviously has a flush here so we have 0 sd value (we maybe win like 5% of times he has a wierd straight or JJ) and we have the blocker. Obviously are range is filled with flushdraws otf, especially the nutflush is a big part of our range, prob eve bigger than AA in villains mind because we 3bet a lot of our AA hands on the BB.

If you don't fire the blocker bluff don't, but you are resigning yourself to loosing the pot in that case. Given that you will more often play suited than unsuited aces your blocker bluff are + EV in the long run.

Regards,

Skod

Originally posted by ETBrooD
Shouldn't we think about how villain perceives the weight of our range? We're clearly demonstrating a ton of strength on the flop, it narrows our range down to the best draws and sets, of which we mostly have sets. Fish and POW will pay anyway, but now even scared players will think twice before folding, even if we bet about 5/6. Also, villains range clearly consists of many flushes.

I would refrain from bluffing here.

I think that's a perfect example for overthinking and leveling yourself. Most Villanos don't perceive our range, let alone the weight of our range. Apart from that, actually I do think we have a lot of nutflushs in our range, we can easily c/r the flop with TP (or better) + NFD.
Like Skod said, you give up the pot by checking and we have a lot of FE.

I don't think I'm doing leveling here. From what I know people usually fold to a 3rd barrel not because they've change their minds but because they've defended the turn light and simply don't have enough to call with. You may be surprised to know that a lot of players do not 3-bet the flop with AJ or A5, and many of them call this 2P again on a bad turn because they're stubborn. Our betsize is 2/3, we made it cheap. Of course villain's gonna call a bit lighter on the turn than he usually would.
If we bet the river in the posted hand and villain folds, we often had the best hand against his folding range. Betting only accomplishes to protect ourselves against a bluff. Villain is rarely going to fold a flush here. Why would he? We didn't make it costly enough for those who are scared, and our line doesn't make enough sense for those who hate folding the best hand.
I've bluffed very strong players before in this spot, even they can't let go of their mediocre flush. I was always wondering whether I'm overbluffing, but that's not the case. They just hold on to their flush when they hit it, that's the whole story. I call it emotional commitment, which shuts off higher brain function.

If we want to 3-barrel bluff here, we need to make it much larger on the turn and bet ~5/6 on the river, as we would with the nut flush. Don't tell me you're betting <2/3 on the turn with the nut flush. I mean, not that it's a bad play, but it's designed to get more calls, not more folds. Hence we shouldn't do that as a bluff unless we're doing exactly the same with the nut flush.
Either we're being inconsistent with our range or we're choosing the wrong betsizes and the wrong spot. I think we need to cut our losses against a flush heavy range. We have a little bit of SDV left.

Originally posted by ETBrooD

I've bluffed very strong players before in this spot, even they can't let go of their mediocre flush. I

Can you seriously say this without laughing at your own words? How can a very strong player not let go with a mediocre flush here?

I think if we decide to bet ott we have to shove the river especially with the A blocker sure somethimes we get called by an k high flush but that's the risk we take to win the pot. And I believe that villain could fold lower flush otr

Originally posted by Skodljivec

Originally posted by ETBrooD

I've bluffed very strong players before in this spot, even they can't let go of their mediocre flush. I

Can you seriously say this without laughing at your own words? How can a very strong player not let go with a mediocre flush here?

What the hell? I saw it, I'm not saying they do it on a frequent basis or something. You can give me credit, I'm not bullshitting you.
My point is that if a strong player may call down a less than great looking flush then every weaker player is capable of calling down even worse ones.

Hi,

i didn't mean for the post to sound offensive or anything, at least not towards you. I'm just saying if someone makes a bad play of not folding a flush in a spot where most people don't dare to bluff even with the blocker, how can he be considered a very strong player? Decent at best probably.

It's like saying you saw a very strong player stackoff on 876mt with bare AA in a 3b pot. It's just contradictory.

Regards,

Skod

Strong players make mistakes, too. I'm pretty sure that most strong players have quite a lot of technical leaks in their game, mindset leaks, or a pure misperception of the competition. For example a strong player might see you bluff twice in this spot and decide to call down all of his flushes from that point onwards. These blocker bluffs mess with people's heads. If their mindset isn't strong, they will start calling down incorrectly, no matter how skilled they are as a player.

The reason I'm arguing this way is that if a skilled player makes these mistakes every now and then, mediocre players will make it far more frequently. If you represent a made hand on the flop and the board changes, many of them will no longer give you credit for having a hand if you continue betting. That's why they're fish and it's why the tendency to pay off marginal is a normal sight in PLO.
What do you think where our EV is coming from? From bluffs? Hell nah.

Originally posted by ETBrooD
Strong players make mistakes, too. I'm pretty sure that most strong players have quite a lot of technical leaks in their game, mindset leaks, or a pure misperception of the competition. For example a strong player might see you bluff twice in this spot and decide to call down all of his flushes from that point onwards. These blocker bluffs mess with people's heads. If their mindset isn't strong, they will start calling down incorrectly, no matter how skilled they are as a player.

absolutly i agree. But what we can do here is make an note on these players that we start to bet when we have it and dont bluff them in these spots. In the hand i postet i had no history about this point

If you represent a made hand on the flop and the board changes, many of them will no longer give you credit for having a hand if you continue betting.

do u mean in generell or in this hand? Because as u see in some other hands i posted i raise the flop also with a fd and a pair. So i am not only representing a made hand otf

Originally posted by MrTrocks

If you represent a made hand on the flop and the board changes, many of them will no longer give you credit for having a hand if you continue betting.

do u mean in generell or in this hand? Because as u see in some other hands i posted i raise the flop also with a fd and a pair. So i am not only representing a made hand otf

In this hand. Of course you have all kinds of nuts - and perhaps also king flushes - when you take this line, but them fishregs don't give a damn about that. We have to adapt to their ignorance and reduce/increase our bluffing frequency when they use mirror-imaging to put us on a hand.