KQQJss 3b pot

Pre is fine, shoving flop can't be a mistake

easyyy call on the flop

Why would he shove the flop?

To OP, what range you give him preflop? Aces or more?

Originally posted by Kyyberi
Why would he shove the flop?

To OP, what range you give him preflop? Aces or more?

well, shat's of course part of part of my question. if I was sure enough about his range, it would make my decision much easier. I myself assign him

very likely: (almost every) AA, good KK, suited A with good non paired side cards and high at least ss rundowns

possibly also: hands like AKT4, AQQ, AJJ or weaker KK or premium QQ.

the second part of the question is what is he going to do with different parts of his range, when straight/flush comes.

ye easy call flop with position.

inside wrap (but you block a Q, so "only 8 outs) + nut GS (4 outs), so nutty wrap 12/12.

u're against a strong range here (AAxx, Axxx + NFD, Axxx + draw) who's ahead you and you have not much FE

easy call (odds position, K :club:), bluff on with your nut blocker, and bet (or raise when he bets himself) on your straighty outs.
'm not bluffing on 7/6

on paired turns, fold.
On blanks, I think I call and have the same plan river (bet rivers and straighty rivers)

Originally posted by OsCardozo
On blanks, I think I call and have the same plan river (bet rivers and straighty rivers)

the problem is that he has just under the pot size bet left on the turn, so there's probably not gonna be any river play if he bets. to call his shove I need about 32%. against a random hand containing A I have about 27% (and he is not going to have most of the bad ones) and against KK I have about 23%. the question of course is, with how much air he will continue on the turn.

also, I agree that if he was full stacked, I can call the flop, but with him being this short there's not that much room to make any play on the turn, so it might be different.

Hi,

yeah call is by far the best and prob only play on this flop.

OMG, what a nit am I

Originally posted by filuta
OMG, what a nit am I

You have a full nutty wrap and the NFD blocker ♦ what more can you hope for? ♦

just one more point of view

consider the following scenario. villain has exactly AA in his range and his strategy will be a very primitive one. he's going to shove every single turn.

against his range and stack we need about 32% equity to call on the turn. we will have this equity on about 28% of the turn cards and in those cases we are having about 75.5% equity. the total pot we will be fighting for (after deducting rake) is $60.29 and we will need to call a bet of $19.39. in the remaining 72% cases we will just fold. the outcome of our strategy is then

0.28*(0.755*60.29-19.39)=7.32

however, to get to the turn we had to invest 7.88 so by calling we are loosing about 1bb. this makes the flop call very likely BE at best (one should always reserve some room for numerical errors)

moreover, if he's going to take a little bit more advanced approach by mostly check/folding the worst turn cards (namely 7c,9c,Jc,Qc and Kc) and shoving the rest (which is for instance something I very well might do), this simple strategy would harm our ev even more (the call flop ev would be something around -5bb).

of course, AA is only a something like first approximation of his range and at some point we have to come back to the reality and realise that decent amount of time he's just gonna make some fishy move and shove the whole stack with 0 equity or simply have some random range. this fact alone probably justifies the flop call. however, having information that his range is aces heavy I think I still might tend to fold.

long story short, I am convinced that I should have called, but at the same time, I am far from convinced that the call is far better than the fold

Originally posted by Skodljivec

Originally posted by filuta
OMG, what a nit am I

You have a full nutty wrap and the NFD blocker ♦ what more can you hope for? ♦

That's not a valid reasoning imo.
OP made some very good points:

Originally posted by filuta
to call his shove I need about 32%. against a random hand containing A I have about 27% (and he is not going to have most of the bad ones) and against KK I have about 23%. the question of course is, with how much air he will continue on the turn.

Originally posted by filuta
however, to get to the turn we had to invest 7.88 so by calling we are loosing about 1bb. this makes the flop call very likely BE at best (one should always reserve some room for numerical errors)

(...)

(the call flop ev would be something around -5bb).

Originally posted by filuta
I am far from convinced that the call is far better than the fold

Neither am I. Yes it's easy to say "you flop a huge draw, you can't fold this!", but we can't ignore the numbers here.

Where did we suddenly come up with the assumptions villain always has AA and always jams turns? I mean starting such a hypotetical discussion basically changes everything in every single hand. So yeah if we are sure villain has AA and jams every turn we have to fold. But villain has a 6% 3bet range, and this is just purely theoretical here it seems.

Or maybe i missed a point during that wall of text ♦

Regards,

Skod

Originally posted by Skodljivec
Where did we suddenly come up with the assumptions villain always has AA and always jams turns? I mean starting such a hypotetical discussion basically changes everything in every single hand. So yeah if we are sure villain has AA and jams every turn we have to fold. But villain has a 6% 3bet range, and this is just purely theoretical here it seems.

Or maybe i missed a point during that wall of text ♦

Regards,

Skod

first of all I apologize for that -5bb, it's -2bb when you actually count it

I don't think that his range is just AA (I wrote my perception of his range few posts earlier), but the range of AA is one of the several possible scenarions, which is possible to analyze and it is not very good for us. that he shoves every turn is probably a simplest strategy possible and again makes it possible to actually count the ev of the flop call and again also one that he might very well use (and even very close to strategy most of the players will actually use I believe).

concerning his stats, it's just 134 hands, so one should be careful, but I would interpret them that he is almost certainly loose and more on the passive side preflop. also that he is capable of 3betting and that it's quite possible that he 3bets a wider range then aces. however, with this smaller stacks one should always be careful since he might have a very diferent 3b range when he gets shorter. also, one should realise that even when he 3bets a 6% range including most of AA, he will usually have AA in 30-50% on this board and with us holding our hand. not mentioning that considerable part of the rest will be hands containing A or KK, which have against us performance similar to AA. perhaps if you could write a range you would assign to BB, that might clarify a lot of things.

Still don't get it.

Point - vs AA the call is minus EV
point - vs a 6% range the call is clearly + EV.

What's left to discuss? BB could easily have KK, AK, a rundown, stuff like that that will be one and done on this flop. It's possible he is potting to "rep the ace" but will fold in the future. Also, the times he has AA and pushes every turn, we can win if we hit our turn out.

So the call otf is in my mind + EV, but it would be - EV under the assumptions villain always has a made hand (in this case villain having Axxx is almost the same as AA) and would jam every turn.

Regards,

Skod

If you know he is having AAxx, he propably don't have the flush draw. So lets assume those, and calculate our EV with a call.

We have 12 outs to make the straight, meaning we will hit around 1/4 times (27,9% equity). So what we invest otf, we have to win 4 times back to make it BE. 4 times is 31,52. After the call pot is 24,01 so we need to get 7,51 as value ott if we hit. Our opponent has around 24% equity usually and opponent has 19,50 or so behind. Our EV of that is around 15. So against bare aces we have clear +EV call situation.

He might have flush draw or he might have some blockers. But our 28% chance to hit the straight is higher than 25% that is used in above (to make it simpler to understand). In my opinion even if we know he has aces, the call is +EV.

You can't look just at your flop equity. Flop equity tells you the percentage to win the pot after the turn and river. If he shoves flop, then you would use that number. But now he is not shoving, he has money left that he will give you ott if you hit. Implied odds, baby!

Originally posted by Skodljivec
Still don't get it.

Point - vs AA the call is minus EV
point - vs a 6% range the call is clearly + EV.

What's left to discuss? BB could easily have KK, AK, a rundown, stuff like that that will be one and done on this flop. It's possible he is potting to "rep the ace" but will fold in the future. Also, the times he has AA and pushes every turn, we can win if we hit our turn out.

So the call otf is in my mind + EV, but it would be - EV under the assumptions villain always has a made hand (in this case villain having Axxx is almost the same as AA) and would jam every turn.

Regards,

Skod

Ok, it seems that we just speak a different language. As I wrote earlier, I now agree that I should have called, so let's just leave it with that. Anyway, thank you for your comments ♠_thumbsup:

Originally posted by Kyyberi
If you know he is having AAxx, he propably don't have the flush draw. So lets assume those, and calculate our EV with a call.

We have 12 outs to make the straight, meaning we will hit around 1/4 times (27,9% equity). So what we invest otf, we have to win 4 times back to make it BE. 4 times is 31,52. After the call pot is 24,01 so we need to get 7,51 as value ott if we hit. Our opponent has around 24% equity usually and opponent has 19,50 or so behind. Our EV of that is around 15. So against bare aces we have clear +EV call situation.

He might have flush draw or he might have some blockers. But our 28% chance to hit the straight is higher than 25% that is used in above (to make it simpler to understand). In my opinion even if we know he has aces, the call is +EV.

Thank you very much for your reply, but could you please write down the actual equation you used to determine the ev, so I can understand and verify your thought process?

Originally posted by Kyyberi
You can't look just at your flop equity. Flop equity tells you the percentage to win the pot after the turn and river. If he shoves flop, then you would use that number. But now he is not shoving, he has money left that he will give you ott if you hit. Implied odds, baby!

I am afraid, I do not understand this paragraph at all, how does it relate to what I wrote?