NL5 65s straight wet board

Hi NezNanec

Sets are likely to raise at some point before the river so he is left with draws and overpairs (on the turn) so a shove won't get you very far.

So I agree with betting small.

I don't agree with the logic. He isn't calling anything with a busted draw, nor is he calling much with any overpair once the A hits - unless it is AA, in which case he'll call anything. Two pairs with aces up call too.

Hypothetically, if we were 250 BB deep, I'd make a massive all-in overbet, that is five times more than, say, a slightly-less-than-half-pot bet. The few times he calls will probably make up for the many times he folds.

On the river I like betting small or going for a check/raise. As said, villain has busted draws (which won't call any bet) or made hands that are weakened by the ace. If you bet small you may get these weak hands to call or even raise vs your 'weakness'. If villain gets aggro with busted draws then chk/shove would be a good line imo.
Only 5x (v few from utg) and AA would call this sized river bet. Even if villain had reads that you fire missed draws on the river he probably won't 'bluff-catch' you on a 4straight board.
small bet size = whatever you think villain will call...

@Yohan

I'm not sure exactly what you are implying but look at the positions and board texture.

He either has a busted draw which will never call a shove or he has some sort of overpair. he sometimes has a NFD that hits TP on the river.

Almost none of those hands can call a shove so it's a waste of a bet.

However, if you bet small you are now giving him some rope to make a mistake. Surely 9 high draw won't call but all of a sudden TT may look better or maybe sometimes his Kx draw (for call or raise).

Checking implies he will bluff and he will never bluff in a spot where we ck/raise flop and bomb turn like we did.

You ask what I am implying. It is this: If you bet N chips and succeed 50% of the time, you win X. But if you bet 5N chips and succeed 15% of the time, you win 1.5X. I think this is the case here.

A busted draw isn't calling a big bet, nor is it calling a small bet. You aim at luring him into making a small mistake, I go for the big mistake. Besides, if the opponent reasons like you, he'll ask himself "Why this big river bet?", "Is he bluffing?".

I think non-AA overpairs are quite insensitive to the bet size at these limits. I also think Two pairs with an A are calling a shove.