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Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

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michel2311
Joined: 14.11.2011

Can I buy stocks? Seems to be a very profitable company for the future!

GL next year!!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

^^

I will have to talk to my lawyer

And here's the latest legislative infraction on our precious way of life:

:f_biggrin:

Ah well, not fair for the rest of Europe to get screwed and not us, too!


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

As for the autorebuy feature, don't worry, I think Table Ninja and similar tools will add a workaround pretty soon, as the UK player base is huge.

And don't worry about Europe not getting screwed, every country is going to to do it sooner or later, it's just too big a market to pass up :f_frown:


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

Originally posted by michel2311
Can I buy stocks? Seems to be a very profitable company for the future!

GL next year!!

Let me add myself on the waiting list and the list of luck wishers as well.

With jackpot SnGs becoming the new craze, 2015 may be our year :f_cool:


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MilanBurdych
Joined: 20.05.2008

Originally posted by Tim64
Thanks, guys.

Originally posted by MilanBurdych
gg

Tim, what ROI do u expect at those Spin and Gos gamble?

Hi Milan :)

It's super hard to estimate, I think. I suppose there will be quite high ROI possible at first but this will drop heavily as people learn what to do. I have 10% but it's a super small sample of only 350 games and includes one big bink, without which it would be very modest.

I noticed a major increase in average skill level between first ~200 games and most recent games.

I would estimate that ~5% is possible for good post flop players if spin and go is a similar format to on FT, and assuming reasonably favourable distribution of prize pools (it's possible to get really terrible distribution ofc, whereby positive ROI will be impossible even if you are a genius!)

OK and did u do some calculations - using your ROI, expected prizepools and so on?...coz I read someting and it seems like BS, I dont think it s worth playin...


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

Only the 1st place % matters, then the expected post-RB ROI (with 5% rake) is just (3 * 1st% * 0.95) - 100% + (0.05 * RB%). (E.g. ~3% for 36% of wins with no RB, ~5% with Supernova / Black Card rewards etc.; replace 0.95 by 1-(x/100) and 0.05 by x/100 for the case of x% rake.)

A caveat is that some people perform poorly under the pressure of the high prize pool, which does affect their ROi negatively, and this can't be simulated until they hit that high multiplier many times. (My record has been 200x in a €10 Twister; alas I lost that one via a standard - for that BI level - AQ<KT flip; but a few 10x-20x ones were also making me somewhat nervous as the price of leaks was high - Tim knows that mentality of mine like no one else.)

The variance is however so big that a 5-6-digit number of games is required for a satisfactory probability of a positive monetary result. There's a free program called SwongSim that estimates the risk via Monte Carlo simulations.

A remotely soild BR for lottery SnGs should contain 200+ BIs.


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

I forgot to add that the 'Net Adjusted Chips Won' stat (I don't remember how it's called in HM2, smth like chip AIEV) allows for even preciser calculation of the expected ROI.

Namely, as 500 chips are equivalent to 1 BI (minus the x% rake), we have

ROI% = (AdjChipsWon / (#Games * 500)) * (100%-x%) + (RB% / 100%) * x%


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Gosh, thanks for all this, tonypmm :)

Interesting what you say about high prize pool affecting roi and I agree. What's not clear is whether it affects regs more (playing to put foods on the table) or recreational guys (more money scared generally?).

It's one reason ftp jackpots may be preferable in that the very high prizepools guarantee payouts to second and third so you don't miss out completely even if you freeze under the pressure.


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MilanBurdych
Joined: 20.05.2008

All in all u just have to be extremely lucky :) With your volume particularly...Hit the big score, win it and so on...I dunno, even thn your expectations fromt his are much lower thn playin games u did earlier, dont u think?


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Yeah, I think so; they will most likely never become my main game. Playing with max 25bb sucks ass.


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

Oh no, will there be any qualified lottery SnG coaches then? I need one on a regular basis, one who constantly improves himself, and most hyper regs are openly hating the lottery format :f_frown:

Originally posted by Tim64
Interesting what you say about high prize pool affecting roi and I agree. What's not clear is whether it affects regs more (playing to put foods on the table) or recreational guys (more money scared generally?).

Recreationals indeed get scared, but regs should learn to exploit that and not be afraid themselves.

There's a significant chance that the highest prize pools will be split in the stars.com version like at FTP, but even that won't free recreationals from their fear.


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ikkvr
Joined: 19.12.2012
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Thanks, ikkvr. Read it with interest yesterday. :)


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

Originally posted by ikkvr
http://tiltbook.com/masuronike/blog/pokerstars-will-be-launching-first-casino-game-this-month---spin--go/ this article might help :)
The 6-max hyper 'mafia' are naturally jealous of the HU hyper 'mafia' who're about to take the rest of the money in poker :f_tongue: (though not so fast - variance is variance).

Meanwhile, HU regs are also hating the format because it doesn't allow for table selection and cartels they had been working so hard to get into; here, random regs will get the fish with the same frequency as those who've been around for a while.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by tonypmm

Originally posted by ikkvr
http://tiltbook.com/masuronike/blog/pokerstars-will-be-launching-first-casino-game-this-month---spin--go/ this article might help :)
The 6-max hyper 'mafia' are naturally jealous of the HU hyper 'mafia' who're about to take the rest of the money in poker :f_tongue: (though not so fast - variance is variance).

Yeah, I had the same thought. Typical poker players thinking they are owed a living and that its the poker sites' responsibility to ensure it's protected, regardless of what the recreational players want to play.

Never mind that 6mx hypers already destroyed traffic in normal sngs...

If now the bottom falls out of the hypers market, its because the recreational players want to spin and go. Simple as that.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

When I clicked google translate, I got this:

"We messed up. Don't be mad. Keep raking, plse."


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
Mark1790
Joined: 14.09.2010

Signed :f_thumbsup:


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

After the high temperatures of August, we've entered an area of "low depression"

Jackpot SnGs

SnGs

Staking: $1918.63
Coaching: $1138.00
SnGs (#651): -$3136.51 (inc R/b) [ROI -10% // ABI $58.54]
Cash: $44.67 (inc R/b)
Live: -$447.00
Expenses: -$144.00 s/scope

Total:
-$626.84

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly in September:

Coaching and staking went well and I'm delighted to announce that, after a couple of year's of waiting, my second video for PStrat is ready and will be coming to a flash player near you soon(ish).

The SnGs fared poorly but I am still pushing to break into the reg-filled $200s so it was always going to be a crapshoot with only 350 games of volume.

Full Tilt jackpots were just plain UGLY. No big prize pools and ran badly so 40 BI d/s - gg me :P It shows what deep pockets you need to grind these; I'm feeling a bit bruised so will not be taking the new format on Stars out for a "spin" unless things get desperate. :)

Speaking of which, it will be interesting to see how much impact the new Spin and Gos have on volume both at turbo 6mx and 6mx hypers. Early indications are that these will be a fishfest at least for a while and regs at other games will suffer a lot. So watch this space and may October nevertheless be the Good, the Better and the Best!


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roopopper
Joined: 31.12.2010

Originally posted by roopopper

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

Originally posted by jbpatzer

Originally posted by roopopper
Long wall of boring text too long to read..... are the zimmers still running :f_biggrin:
:facepalm: There is no hope for you. No, no zimmers. Want to start it up again?

I don't think "running" is the right word for zimmers. "Shuffling" is about all I can manage these days....

I'm game for a game though.

Shuffle up and deal!

Nice to hear from you again, roo
--VS

Well that's three of us in, I had better head over to Tim's Blog next :f_cool:

Hello Tim :f_biggrin:


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