PLO100 - 3b pot, top set on straight turn

Only a few combos got there (QJT where you block a Q, J♦T♦ etc.), it would be much different if an OESD hit. But with only a gutter hitting I definitely bet this and get it in if I have to. Like you said, worse sets, 2pairs even, draws etc. might gii so quite easy b/gii for me.

I guess you mean shove, since we only have ~$90 behind in a pot of $105. What sets/2pairs/draws do you expect them to have that stack off here 3way but won't raise flop? What do you put the somewhat cautious UTG reg on after he overcalls on the flop?

What I'm getting at is that we block Kxxx really hard (it's impossible for both of them to have a king) and K9/sets are likely to raise the flop. This weights their flop calling ranges heavily towards draws imo, especially for UTG since overcalling OOP with a weak made hand sounds pretty suicidal. Ofc button could still have something funny if he's really a fish. What draws are there except QJT and some weakish NFD that doesn't want to get in on the flop? Maybe some GS+FD, but even in those the most likely gutter is JT with two queens out already.

Not bashing your comment or trying to argue btw, just throwing my thoughts out to get more discussion going

Yeah shove then. Didn't pay attention to stacksizes, but with SPR<1 it's even clearer for me.

All your arguments are valid and I'm not denying that we look at JT quite often, but it just doesn't make any sense to check here imo. We are definitely going with our hand, by checking we just add the possibility of seeing a river card which works against us imo, we don't want to give out freecards to flushdraws or pair+gutter etc. We also don't want hands which we beat and would stackoff now fold scary rivers.
The only argument for a check would be a scenario where BTN checks and UTG holds JT, that way we get a free river to outdraw UTG. But I think UTG would either play JT differently on the flop or lead the turn for protection. All in all I think this scenario happens not often enough and therefore I'd just jam. Another advantage of jam is that if BTN calls UTG will get a good price on a lot of draws which earns you $.

Ship it specially with this spr and that only gutter hits

Okay, did some math. I put UTG on $fi12!AA, BTN on $fi15 (a pure guess obv but let's assume he peels many strong looking hands here pre). If we give BTN a flop peeling range of roughly K9+, QJT and FD with something to go with it (nfd+pair, gutter+fd), while giving UTG mostly just nfd or QJT (gave him all nfds even though some jam flop for sure), we run into a straight 65-70% of the time.

If we assume that BTN calls his whole range on the turn, while UTG calls only JTxx, EV of shoving is about +$30. This is obviously better than what we actually get since it's a stretch to assume BTN will call some of the weaker hands he peels flop with (and I also assumed he never raises dominated made hands OTF). If only straights call the EV is around +$10.

For comparison, if we check and BTN checks as well, we make right about nuts on 9 river cards (board pairs). Thus the EV of turn checking through is 9/44*$105 = $21.4 even if we have absolutely no implied odds OTR and we always lose on blank rivers. When we account for the fact that we can still sometimes get a nice bet in if we boat up and that most of the rivers are blanks where we win the pot a decent amount of the time, the EV of turn checking through can easily be higher than the above overoptimistic estimate we got for shoving. In other words the EV of turn checking through seems very likely to be higher than shoving.

The only problem then is if BTN will shove turn relatively often and we make mistakes against that. Not sure about that, but in practice I feel that most people at these games would check most of their medium-ish hands like weaker 2pair/pair+FD etc back instead of making a big semibluff push into two players. Then I think we can actually check/fold since we're nearly always looking at the nuts when BTN bets turn.

Is there something you strongly disagree with or think is really wrong in my analysis?

I think your calculation misses out on some cases, like either of them folding to a scary river card with a hand you have beat but which would gii on the turn. I think the 21.4$ EV of check are accurate, but I don't think the other value you calculated is realistic or rather misses out on some scenarios.

To get the $21.4 figure I actually assumed that no one ever pays off a bet when we boat up and that we lose every time the board does not pair. Like, unless we make a boat we openfold river. That's obviously ridiculous and we win a decent amount without the board pairing as well, it just means that the $21.4 is a lower estimate and the real EV is higher.

For the $30 figure, I agree it's not entirely realistic. I assumed BTN calls everything he gets to the turn with, so in these figures they're definitely calling the turn very often with hands that won't give value on the river. I think him calling everything is obv too optimistic and the real EV is going to be clearly less than $30. It's true that I gave the read/feel that BTN seemed fishy, but it's still just 7 hands so it's too hopeful to assume he has a super wide pre range here or that he just punts in another 100bb+ really bad on the turn with a player left to act.

I think the discussion and your calcs show that it's close either way and could be considered gray area. I think neither play is wrong in itself so I won't fault you for a check and it might be the better choice if you want to remove some variance. I thought initially a jam is quite superior but apparently it's not that much better, thanks for that insight.

Cool, good that I could help As played I did jam it in and thought like you guys did that checking feels awkward, so the results I got surprised me as well. I agree it's pretty close and can probably easily shift based on reads/stats (more clear check if BTN will only jam JT and won't make thin calls, betting is likely best if UTG leads his straights often ott etc. etc.).

Nice debate. You have to assume UTG jams always here with the spr of 1 when he has the straight, so you only have 1 player to worry about. I see there's a wall of text so i dunno if this has been mentuioned, but keep in mind that you might have a lot of implieds if it goes AI 3way; say one shows up with the straight, and the other calls with a fd.

Clear shove imo

Regards,

Skod