Folding flush in limped pot (2nl)

It doesn't make sense for him to have a flush. Why should he bet pot with two spades on the flop (and turn)? Possibly K♠8♠/J♠8♠ makes (a little) sense. Why then massively overbet on the river with nuts? I'd be deeply suspicious and pay off ♦

I already said, because he's a genius and he knows exactly what I have.

I'm not really concerned with how retarded his play is, he makes sure that he can get paid off by only exactly 10 high flush and 9 high flush.

I am concerned about my play though, and I really think I should fold.

Note that he bet pot on the turn, which indicates that there is a high probability that if he goies on to bet the river, then he's hit it, which he does. It's pretty obvious he has a flush, the question is can I call if I know he has a flush... he wouldn't bet the flop with 7s 5s for example.

Maybe if we played live and I could have time to think/pick up on a tell I could fold lol

That thought makes me happy.

Actually the more I think about it I think it's a fold.

The reasoning is this:

If he has a low flush he would just bet normally.

The point of betting all in is that he's just saying 'fuck it, if he has a flush he's going to pay me off, all in!'

No other hands make sense, and there are no bluffs, he has a flush.

QED. Fold.

Best case scenario I toss a coin, and then I have to put up with tilt variance.

I mean it's the exact same reasoning these players use to justify shoving all in when they have the nuts of like 10x someones raise because they recon their opponent will not raise fold ever, like CO open with AA for 4x and shove vs a 3bet of 12x 150 BBs deep because they recon opponent will never 3bet fold at 2nl.

where are the K high flushes?

since he pots flop and turn i call and don't feel bad about it, i think he tends more to twopair+ than to backdoor flushes which are better than yours (specially with the A:s on the board). on the other hand, i approve of overbet shoving with the nuts

Originally posted by Tomaloc
where are the K high flushes?

since he pots flop and turn i call and don't feel bad about it, i think he tends more to twopair+ than to backdoor flushes which are better than yours (specially with the A:s on the board). on the other hand, i approve of overbet shoving with the nuts
Yeah, massive overbets with unexpected (by the opponent) nut hands can have the very best EV versus certain players (myself unfortunately included).

Originally posted by Tomaloc
where are the K high flushes?

since he pots flop and turn i call and don't feel bad about it, i think he tends more to twopair+ than to backdoor flushes which are better than yours (specially with the A:s on the board). on the other hand, i approve of overbet shoving with the nuts

Not if I fold.

I can tell you I've been winning at 2nl for thousands of hands now, but my biggest struggle is folding in big pots. I really want to make sure I'm comfortable with folding correctly in big pots before I move up to 5nl. I mean the thing about these situations is just that even if somehow you're slightly plus ev on them, they're not worth the variance, even when you are dead certain that you're exactly in one of a few different universes where you can see plus ev, like here, where you're flipping a coin to win the money already in the pot.

I just find it so difficult to fold because your opponent is being rewarded for stupid play by winning the pot when you fold.

By the way I disagree with the idea that he has two pair or a set on the river, its not like we've been leveling each other in this game. No its pretty clear he has a flush and he thinks I'll call whenever I have a lower flush, absolutely no chance he has two pair or set and shoves.

Thanks for the replies though guys!

Originally posted by Tomaloc
where are the K high flushes?

since he pots flop and turn i call and don't feel bad about it, i think he tends more to twopair+ than to backdoor flushes which are better than yours (specially with the A:s on the board). on the other hand, i approve of overbet shoving with the nuts

I thought if he had a suited king he would raise preflop (he raised 3 out of 10 times previously in the SB).

Anyway if you think he also has king highs then that means its a clearer fold isn't it.

I think you're way overestimating villain's thought process. It's more likely that he's just a recreational nl2 player than a genius. I think recreational players at nl2 will do this with any flush, sets, 2pair and sometimes bluffs. Don't focus too much on bad results.

Originally posted by Zukes
I think you're way overestimating villain's thought process. It's more likely that he's just a recreational nl2 player than a genius. I think recreational players at nl2 will do this with any flush, sets, 2pair and sometimes bluffs. Don't focus too much on bad results.

+1 !!! Generally a good player would be value betting a reasonable size to get called... in NL2 only 1 in a 100000 is a "genius" and 1 in a 100 are good players.

Originally posted by Mandator

Originally posted by Zukes
I think you're way overestimating villain's thought process. It's more likely that he's just a recreational nl2 player than a genius. I think recreational players at nl2 will do this with any flush, sets, 2pair and sometimes bluffs. Don't focus too much on bad results.

+1 !!! Generally a good player would be value betting a reasonable size to get called... in NL2 only 1 in a 100000 is a "genius" and 1 in a 100 are good players.

Pretty sure he was being sarcastic with the "genius" comment...

In any case this is never a fold at nl2 without very strong stat reads, considering the vast number of random shit he could be doing this with.

Thanks for all the help guys, looks likes nobody would have folded there or even considered it, so that's something. At 2nl it really is common that people 'value bet' flushes and just jam ie. actually value bet the nuts, so I would keep that in mind if you ever decide to take a fun shot at 2nl!