[SH] Good bluffcatch or spew?

I would call it with pair+draw vs so agro player. he can raise flop with fd but also with bdfd. Also so many OESD and GS combos whcih can bluff turn since it is scare card.

I would shove flop given stack size, because hand needs protection

Villain raises very large, so he seems to be preparing another big bet, so why not just b/f flop? This bluffcatcher is very very very weak, you have tons of better ones in your b/c and b/r ranges. Look at your whole range before you defend a weak bluffcatcher, especially on an early street on dynamic boards against high aggression.

Raises 24%? You have a very easy flop checkback.

Vs a snap overshove on the Turn, it looks a lot like A:dX. He might also have some straight draws. Don't think calling is all that bad but you shouldn't even have put yourself into this situation in the first place.

Originally posted by ETBrooD
Villain raises very large, so he seems to be preparing another big bet, so why not just b/f flop? This bluffcatcher is very very very weak, you have tons of better ones in your b/c and b/r ranges. Look at your whole range before you defend a weak bluffcatcher, especially on an early street on dynamic boards against high aggression.

Betting this on the flop and folding to the raise would be terrible vs someone raising so wide.

Unless we knew that this guy is raising a ton of top pair combos and is less polarized (but is calling the flop cbet with plenty of lower pairs and high cards), then bet-fold here would be the best option.

Thanks for you feedback guys.

I too think that he has a semibluff on the turn quite often, only I'm not sure if often enough to justify a call....

To mbml: yeah, checking would be good, unfortunately I hadnt played him a while and forgot to check his raise percentage before I decided to cbet.

Originally posted by mbml
Betting this on the flop and folding to the raise would be terrible vs someone raising so wide.

That would be true if villain had only one raisesize. Since we don't have this information he can easily split his ch/r range into several betsizes, some being more profitable to defend against and some being too valueheavy.
Other missing information are board textures and positions.
A single stat without related information is only useful if it's very extreme.

Originally posted by ETBrooD

Originally posted by mbml
Betting this on the flop and folding to the raise would be terrible vs someone raising so wide.

That would be true if villain had only one raisesize. Since we don't have this information he can easily split his ch/r range into several betsizes, some being more profitable to defend against and some being too valueheavy.
Other missing information are board textures and positions.
A single stat without related information is only useful if it's very extreme.

We cant be completely sure that he is bluff heavy, but if his average raise stat is 24% then it is more likely that he is bluff heavy also in this spot than that he is not. There is some correlation between different spots. So I would rather bluff catch vs such guy, than vs guy for who I dont have info at all, or that is not that agro.

Originally posted by GingerKid

Originally posted by ETBrooD

Originally posted by mbml
Betting this on the flop and folding to the raise would be terrible vs someone raising so wide.

That would be true if villain had only one raisesize. Since we don't have this information he can easily split his ch/r range into several betsizes, some being more profitable to defend against and some being too valueheavy.
Other missing information are board textures and positions.
A single stat without related information is only useful if it's very extreme.

We cant be completely sure that he is bluff heavy, but if his average raise stat is 24% then it is more likely that he is bluff heavy also in this spot than that he is not. There is some correlation between different spots. So I would rather bluff catch vs such guy, than vs guy for who I dont have info at all, or that is not that agro.

A 24% ch/r stat could mean that the guy has found exploits against the population that he's using with a high frequency. Or he likes to ch/r certain textures in particular, like paired or monotone or straight boards. Or he targets a certain highcard.
Secondly, since we don't know which sizing he's using for what part of his range, the ch/r stat alone is never an accurate representation of his tendencies. Most players are not aware that they have a good number of betsize tells, or they're too lazy/ignorant to do anything about it. Different sizings can also be used against different players as an exploitive measure, further distorting an overall stat like ch/r.

The number of ways that we can have an incorrect read on villains range is pretty large. We should not defend wider against this particular villain than any other one. Not until we know for sure what he's doing. If we "adapt" too soon we will make major -EV decisions due to our misinterpretations.

The number of ways that we can have an incorrect read on villains range is pretty large. We should not defend wider against this particular villain than any other one. Not until we know for sure what he's doing. If we "adapt" too soon we will make major -EV decisions due to our misinterpretations.

How can we know for sure about villian tendencies? For this villian we allready have decent sample. As you explained, there is hardly a way that we can say we are sure that he is bluff heavy exactly with this size and board, positions, vs hero. We can for sure allways defend unexploitable because stats are never accurate enough, but still imo the stats that we have are better than no info at all.

So my point is, since his raise stat is very high, then in average spot he is going to be bluff heavy, so in average spots vs him we should be increasing our EV by defending wider (assuming he doesnt adapt).

Just wondering, are you value heavy vs villian who has VPiP = 60, and PFR = 3, fold vs cbet flop 20%, but turn and river no info? Now you can say, I dont want to be value heavy on turn and river because I dont have accurate stats for it, and villian might be calling too wide in average but in this particular spot he might be calling only nuts. Still, I think you would be value heavy vs such villian, because you would make assumption using correlation that if he is station on flop, he is likely station on turn and river. Similar example, if you play vs nitty guy who folds 70% vs flop cbet, and then you decide not to be bluff heavy on flop because he might not overfold this particular spot? I see those 2 examples very similar to the example we have in this hand.

I would indeed not change my gameplay on the turn only because villain folds very little on the flop. Even with a decent enough samplesize this doesn't give me any concerns about how I should continue on.
In the scenario where villain folds 20% on the flop we have to look at whether he even has a flop raising range or not, how he plays against turn xb in general, etc. etc.
There are so many other factors that we need to consider before trying to adapt, and if that information is missing (like you said, no info on the turn) then we shouldn't adapt at all until we know for sure what's going on. We cannot rely on stats so much unless they are extreme.
I have seen a player who ch/r only draws on the flop and ch/c only bluffcatchers and his top range. He exploited my "balanced" strategy very well because I was never able to put him on the hands he had. But as soon as I saw what he was doing I destroyed him. Stats did not help me at all.

Edit: I might also add that not having enough of a sample on the turn in a SR pot is very unlikely, almost impossible. Classic turn c-bet frequency is around 50, so a sample should build up quickly. Otherwise the flop stat isn't sufficient either and adapting would be a huge mistake because of variance.