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NL100 TPTK turn to bluff

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Majku99
Joined: 22.02.2012

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $41.67 (41.7 bb)
BB: $105.71 (105.7 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $104.50 (104.5 bb)
UTG+2: $201.07 (201.1 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $96.59 (96.6 bb)
MP3: $135.18 (135.2 bb)
CO: $154.88 (154.9 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q A
Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, MP3 calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 3 Q 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $4.23, Hero calls $4.23

Turn: ($15.96) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $10.67, Hero calls $10.67

River: ($37.30) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $27, Hero raises to $86.60 and is all-in, MP3 folds

Results:

Spoiler

$91.30 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 3 Q 5 J 6
Hero mucked Q A and won $88.50 ($43.60 net)
MP3 mucked and lost (-$44.90 net)

Hey
I could cbet this but I am trying to mix these hands with xc. On the river villain has 2% 3bet i fold to 4bet 50% and 8%cc on these positions. So he's range is something like
QQ-44,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo+ with Qc and my Ac he has i best case 3 combos of flushes. His betting range on the river QQ-JJ,55,AQs,KQs,QJs,AcJc,KcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,AQo(19) and betcalling QQ-JJ,AcJc,KcJc,JcTc,Tc9c(7). So I have above 60% FE assuming that he doesn't bluff here at all, doesn't have KK and fold lower and medium sets. I know that I could use some different hand to this like AcK, AcJ but on NL100 players are very thight here.


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3 replies
clawindsouza
Joined: 08.12.2009

Assuming that he 3bets KK all the time, I don't think you're ever going to get a better hand to fold.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

I would personally call only hands that block AcX hands vs raise, because pupulation is not bluffing often enough. So vs me you would have max EV with raise. Imo other regs play also nitty in this spot for the same reason.
I dont think villian is betting river AQ, KQs it would be overplay.

I think the hand is great for cc, bet is not so good because you block weaker hands and will get many folds. Only problem is that hand is weak on river to call because you block bluffs, but it is great for bluff shove especially if deep.


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

I think the idea of going into x/c mode on the flop with a redraw is perfectly fine.

I wouldn't generally consider river x/r here. It's not purely about our FE but in particular which better hands are we folding out. For example villain could fire a bunch of weak hands and we have fold equity for a +EV x/r however we beat most of the hands that are folding and then suffer additional losses when our bluff gets snapped up by flushes and other made hands.

I notice you include Ac in villain's range also which we have ourselves.


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