AQ fold river

i think betting smallish ott could be fine as well
but since you expect many craises -

betting turn is nice imo because as played i dont think people bluff much now on the river
therefore folding seems fine

Hey GingerKid,

I usually just 3b pf.

Flop call is fine.

He can still x/c turn with stuff like AJ/KJs/KQ/AQ etc so I don't mind putting out a small bet.

Imo if we expect villain to have a bluff-range on river we should call vs river lead. If we think he has zero bluff-range then we can consider exploitative fold although I really don't think it's impossible he'll value bet stuff like AQ/KQ after we check back turn - so I'd lean towards calling.

what is he betting KQ against? T9s expecting to get called? imo he is not even betting AQ there, since I can clearly have Jx I played exactly that way.

People bet the weirdest holdings but I think you may've made a very solid fold there. It seemed crazy to me at first but I agree with your ideas about villains value range. It makes a lot more sense for him to bet AQ on the turn than on the river, and the same obviously goes for KQ.
I don't know how likely it is that villain puts us on AQ and some FH's by the river, but regardless I don't see him often betting worse than KK for value. With a certain smaller frequency you might see AQ, but I highly doubt villain has a bluffing range, and then it's a clear fold.

Originally posted by GingerKid
what is he betting KQ against? T9s expecting to get called? imo he is not even betting AQ there, since I can clearly have Jx I played exactly that way.

Yeah, I'm not really trying to rationalise villain's line if he bets these hands, I'm just pointing out that I think it's possible given our turn check.

Even if he never has these hands we can call if his bluffing frequency is high enough - I think that's mostly what it comes down to. If he mistakenly value-bets worse from time to time then it's simply an additional bonus.